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NFL 18-28 -18.35 units
Rough go so far this season, WTF was I doing playing road faves anyway? Back to the basics this week.
49ers+9.5-125
Texans+5
Chiefs-3+100
Ravens-7.5-105
3 units each
Sea/Cincy u50
Eagles-4
Jaguars+175
Giants+175
2 units each
Bills+17.5-125
Ravens-7.5
Titans+4.5
1 to win 5.2 units
I already knew I would be playing these two when the lines came out, so I was checking back & forth with Pinny (IMO the sharpest book in terms of line moves), & they had SF at 9, Texans at 4.5. Boy did I jump the gun! SF now @+10 & Texans+6. I guess I'm not too good at predicting line moves. Although I would always like to get the best possible line, the move just means more value for me when I add the moneylines....
49ers +9.5- Pitt is off to a blazing start, beating both their opponents by a combined 60-10 margin. A large part of this is due to the Steelers ability to run the ball effectively. They are averaging 195 yards per game on the ground, & 5.2 ypc. This in turn opens up the passing game immensely, as evidenced by Big Ben's numbers- 33-57 403 & 5 tds. The 49ers are 2-0, but haven't looked too impressive offensively or on pass D. Last week they beat the Rams despite only gaining 186 total yards. Alex Smith has been prettty much ineffective, with a 69.1 passer rating. IMO this has alot to do with their OL troubles. Good news is he has yet to throw an INT, & Gore has yet to have a great day.
Defensively, the Niners have been stopping the run effectively, allowing 3.6 ypc overall. Pretty good considering they faced Edge & Steven Jackson. They hald Jackson to just 60 yards on the ground in 20 carries. The problem lies in their pass D- Bulger threw for 368 on them last week (they did sack him 6 times). Had they not forced 3 turnovers, they would have certainly lost the game.
I think the key for SF will be to continue to stop the run & get pressure on the qb. If you slow Parker, you take away a huge part of the Steelers attack. Ben has only been sacked twice this season (pitt has recorded 10 sacks so far), & IMO tends to get rattled when pressured early in a game. SF has recorded 7 sacks this season, & is capable of putting some pressure on Ben. Willis has yet to disappoint, & IMO could be even better than advertised. Clemens should fare well against Ward, he saved the day last week forcing a fumble on Holt. The Steelers had trouble finding the endzone early last week, if you watched the game they should have won by 14 more. The Steel D has looked good, but then again they have yet to face a good offense. I think Gore can get the chains moving, but the OL is definitely going to have to step up their play for the Niners to get the W. I think SF gives the Steelers a tough go this week....
Texans+5 Same Colts team as last year IMO, way better Houston team. It was scarier for me to play against the Colts last week, but after watching, I'll likely be against them for every road game. Again, a recap of the last 9 away games for Indy....
@ Ten W 22-20
@ Hou. L 27-24
@ Jax L 44-17
@ Tenn L 20-17
@ Dal L 21-14
@ NE. W 27-20
@ Den W 34-31
@ NYJ W 31-28
@ NYG W 26-21
So they are 4-5 SU in the last 9 on the road (1-4 last 5), & have won by more than 5 pts one time! I don't even have to look to see that Indy will be a huge public play, likely a favorite to throw in a teaser. The not-so-secret way to beat the Colts- run, run, run & stop the run. The Titans had 313 total yards vs. Indy last week, & 140 of them were on the ground. Indy had 387 total offensive yds, but only 81 on the ground. Dayne ate Indy alive in their last meeting, rushing for 153 yards. Ahman Green is averaging 4.6 ypc. this season, so I expect a full out rushing attack... Houston went into Carolina & rushed for 120 yards against a tough D. Although Shaub has performed very well so far & has a 111.4 passer rating, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have u20 passing attempts this week. As some of you have already pointed out, Andre Johnson was injured last week- I'll wait on his status before adding the moneyline, but I still think that Houston can win without him. His presence would definitely be missed, but last year's win over Indy, he only had 4 catches for 48 yards. If this game is won, it'll be on the ground.
I don't think there is a D out there that can completely shut down Manning & co. but by stopping the run, you can keep Peyton from having 3rd & shorts- he's the best QB on 3rd & short I've ever witnessed. I think Houston can create longer 3rd down situations- they held Carolina to 66 yds on 18 rushes & KC to 72 yards on 17 rushes. That's very impressive to me. They have also enjoyed a greqat turnaround on the O-line, only allowing 2 sacks so far while the D has had 6 sacks. Maybe it was Carr!
I'll have more later tonight, will list the homedogs with some reasoning as to why they could be good plays... Leaning on a couple home faves, KC, Balty & (yikes) Philly.
Rough go so far this season, WTF was I doing playing road faves anyway? Back to the basics this week.
49ers+9.5-125
Texans+5
Chiefs-3+100
Ravens-7.5-105
3 units each
Sea/Cincy u50
Eagles-4
Jaguars+175
Giants+175
2 units each
Bills+17.5-125
Ravens-7.5
Titans+4.5
1 to win 5.2 units
I already knew I would be playing these two when the lines came out, so I was checking back & forth with Pinny (IMO the sharpest book in terms of line moves), & they had SF at 9, Texans at 4.5. Boy did I jump the gun! SF now @+10 & Texans+6. I guess I'm not too good at predicting line moves. Although I would always like to get the best possible line, the move just means more value for me when I add the moneylines....
49ers +9.5- Pitt is off to a blazing start, beating both their opponents by a combined 60-10 margin. A large part of this is due to the Steelers ability to run the ball effectively. They are averaging 195 yards per game on the ground, & 5.2 ypc. This in turn opens up the passing game immensely, as evidenced by Big Ben's numbers- 33-57 403 & 5 tds. The 49ers are 2-0, but haven't looked too impressive offensively or on pass D. Last week they beat the Rams despite only gaining 186 total yards. Alex Smith has been prettty much ineffective, with a 69.1 passer rating. IMO this has alot to do with their OL troubles. Good news is he has yet to throw an INT, & Gore has yet to have a great day.
Defensively, the Niners have been stopping the run effectively, allowing 3.6 ypc overall. Pretty good considering they faced Edge & Steven Jackson. They hald Jackson to just 60 yards on the ground in 20 carries. The problem lies in their pass D- Bulger threw for 368 on them last week (they did sack him 6 times). Had they not forced 3 turnovers, they would have certainly lost the game.
I think the key for SF will be to continue to stop the run & get pressure on the qb. If you slow Parker, you take away a huge part of the Steelers attack. Ben has only been sacked twice this season (pitt has recorded 10 sacks so far), & IMO tends to get rattled when pressured early in a game. SF has recorded 7 sacks this season, & is capable of putting some pressure on Ben. Willis has yet to disappoint, & IMO could be even better than advertised. Clemens should fare well against Ward, he saved the day last week forcing a fumble on Holt. The Steelers had trouble finding the endzone early last week, if you watched the game they should have won by 14 more. The Steel D has looked good, but then again they have yet to face a good offense. I think Gore can get the chains moving, but the OL is definitely going to have to step up their play for the Niners to get the W. I think SF gives the Steelers a tough go this week....
Texans+5 Same Colts team as last year IMO, way better Houston team. It was scarier for me to play against the Colts last week, but after watching, I'll likely be against them for every road game. Again, a recap of the last 9 away games for Indy....
@ Ten W 22-20
@ Hou. L 27-24
@ Jax L 44-17
@ Tenn L 20-17
@ Dal L 21-14
@ NE. W 27-20
@ Den W 34-31
@ NYJ W 31-28
@ NYG W 26-21
So they are 4-5 SU in the last 9 on the road (1-4 last 5), & have won by more than 5 pts one time! I don't even have to look to see that Indy will be a huge public play, likely a favorite to throw in a teaser. The not-so-secret way to beat the Colts- run, run, run & stop the run. The Titans had 313 total yards vs. Indy last week, & 140 of them were on the ground. Indy had 387 total offensive yds, but only 81 on the ground. Dayne ate Indy alive in their last meeting, rushing for 153 yards. Ahman Green is averaging 4.6 ypc. this season, so I expect a full out rushing attack... Houston went into Carolina & rushed for 120 yards against a tough D. Although Shaub has performed very well so far & has a 111.4 passer rating, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have u20 passing attempts this week. As some of you have already pointed out, Andre Johnson was injured last week- I'll wait on his status before adding the moneyline, but I still think that Houston can win without him. His presence would definitely be missed, but last year's win over Indy, he only had 4 catches for 48 yards. If this game is won, it'll be on the ground.
I don't think there is a D out there that can completely shut down Manning & co. but by stopping the run, you can keep Peyton from having 3rd & shorts- he's the best QB on 3rd & short I've ever witnessed. I think Houston can create longer 3rd down situations- they held Carolina to 66 yds on 18 rushes & KC to 72 yards on 17 rushes. That's very impressive to me. They have also enjoyed a greqat turnaround on the O-line, only allowing 2 sacks so far while the D has had 6 sacks. Maybe it was Carr!
I'll have more later tonight, will list the homedogs with some reasoning as to why they could be good plays... Leaning on a couple home faves, KC, Balty & (yikes) Philly.
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