Week 3 Discussion

**rjp** · 09-17-2007, 11:23 PM

Bills are a great bet this week.

**rjp** · 09-17-2007, 11:36 PM

Buy to +17.5 -130 and max bet it.

**rjp** · 09-17-2007, 11:52 PM

Anyway, back to the original question: No idea which ones will win, but they're all likely to have money line value come Sunday.

**Daws1089** · 09-18-2007, 10:18 AM

The texans could win this weekend, but I think their chances are severely lessened if andre johnson doesnt play. Their defense is improving every game it seems like and matt shaub brings a nice pass attack. For Houston to win i would think that they would need a healthy dose of ahman green and ron dayne coupled with a turnover or two from the colts which i dont know if that is very likely. Houston hasn't exactly played anyone good yet either. KC is one of the worst teams and carolina most thought was a good team but apparently laid an egg at home.

is GB for real? I'm not sure, but i don't think the pats defense is all that great and they held LT to what 40 yards or something like that? Philip rivers looked confused again turning it over 3 times. If the GB running game improves like it has in the past 2 weeks, I think GB can take this one.

**kidtrax18** · 09-18-2007, 11:52 AM

Agree to Disagree

I agree with everything you are saying however the fact that so many dogs covered last week brings value back to the favorites. Look at the spreads from last week Jets +10, Raiders +10 Chiefs +13. Because lines are made by public perception to get even money on both sides, and the public paid attention to the underdog covers from last week, the points the dogs are getting this week have shrank immensely. The Texans look real good, I am with you on that, but they have not played a team remotely as good as indy. Also lets look at green bay. Who have they played? A fumble prown eagle team in a bad spot at lambeau and a piss poor giant defense that couldn't stop my 8 year old nephew. The Chargers played the two toughest defenses in the league week one and week two and may be playing against the fourth or fifth best this week but thats not whats important, whats important is that san diego is the third best defense in the league, one that held the bears to 3 points week one. The charges are still a power house and as bad as they looked I would not want to play them the week after they got embarrased by the patriots. I see value in the lines pointing toward the favorites. Colts win by 10 on the road Chargers win by 13. :glass:

**hodown** · 09-18-2007, 03:18 PM

kidtrax i agree 100%. the dawgs tore it up last wk and im usually the first one to jump all over the homedawgs, as i took all 5. regarding homedawgs, i like the falcons the most. 77% on carolina right now, and public has shyed away from atl in all 3 wks so far. not sure how good car is, considering the rams layed another egg last sunday. if the falcons run the ball decently well and play defense, they can hang.

in the other 2 games i just dont see it. texans beat the colts last yr in houston, colts should be ready. no johnson for the texans takes away the deep threat, and houston does not run the ball as well as tenn. as well, the line has moved from -4.5 to -6 which isnt typical for a road fav. thirdly, i just dont see the pack having the firepower to win this one outright. i think it would be foolish to assume that LT will get shutdown for a 3rd straight game, although rivers has not impressed. is norv turner to fault here?? perhaps but too many weapons here for the chargers.

public is on 5 roaddawgs right now, dallas, minn, cinci, det, ariz. to me the dallas game is a toss, hard to predict punt returns and kick returns and the bears have plenty of that. i dont see any value in minny going to arrowhead even though the chiefs are bad, but even bad teams are good at home. cinci is a toss. im not buying into the det kool aid even though philly is laying eggs all over the place. balt at home -7 against leinart looks good to me. hopefuly mcnair is back and ready.

**Daws1089** · 09-19-2007, 10:07 PM

I agree fellas. I like a good number of favs to cover this week, but those home dogs cover at an alarming rate. im gonna say 2 out of 3 cover this week. Atlants line is moving in the opposite direction that it should going from +4 to now +3.5 despite 70% of action on carolina. I guess atlanta can't lose every game right? Their defense isn't half bad either.

Some favs I'm looking into are:

Balt-8
Chi-3

Arizona is in for a rude awakening i think. The young o-line of the cards is already facing injuries and whats the last defense you would want to face? Baltimore's defense i think will give lienart fits and force 2 INTs give or take 1. Running on the ravens isn't an easy task either so i would expect edge to have about 15 carries for 45-50 yds. Arizona is going to have to throw the ball which is their strong point, BUT with the complex schemes and mazing athletes that rex ryan has on D the cards will have to keep more guys in to block to pick up blitzes so anquan and larry may be on their own. Now balt could turn it over 3 times and its anybody's game, but i see baltimore winning this something like 23-9 with mcnair back in charge.

Why is dallas a dog? That is what the public is saying right now. How can the bears be a favorite if they can't score points? Dallas is a fraud imo. Their defense is bad. just plain bad. and their offense looks so high powered because they've played **** defenses. Tony **** will look a little more human this week.

Another road dog i like is jax+3. This line also moving in favor of denver despite the heavy picks on denver. Cutler has been turning the ball over more than i expected this yr and it doesnt get any easier going from oakland to jax defense. Their front 7 are great and thats what you need to stop denver who loves to run. The jags ground game will need to get going, but i think they can churn out a win in the mile high city.

any thoughts?

**CuseFan10** · 09-19-2007, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by kidtrax18

I agree with everything you are saying however the fact that so many dogs covered last week brings value back to the favorites.

KidTrax - Are you the kinda guy who plays roulette and plays red because black hit twice in a row and "there's no way it can hit again"? What happened last week has no bearing on what will happen this week, IMHO.

**Underdog88** · 09-19-2007, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by kidtrax18

I agree with everything you are saying however the fact that so many dogs covered last week brings value back to the favorites.

I don't agree that just because dogs covered last week, more faves will cover this week. I remember a couple years back where predominantly faves came in like 4 weeks in a row. IMO it's best to look at individual matchups & take it from there.... JMO

**FlyersFan** · 09-19-2007, 10:36 PM

those of you in the NFL pick'em on Yahoo. Fade my plays. I think i was 3-12 last week and i had 17 points out of like 140. i just look at them for about 30 seconds and make my picks without much thought. they are ALWAYS wrong. and i won't even charge you for the free money faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaades....

**hodown** · 09-20-2007, 08:07 AM

all i can say about the bears is that every line this year involving chicago will be a product of sexy rexy. its hard for me to root for my bears bc the coaching staff is making an awful mistake and squandering one of the best defensive and special teams units we have ever seen. im almost hoping for him to choke it up in a primetime game so there can be some more pressure to get him out of there

**Daws1089** · 09-20-2007, 09:37 AM

yea i mean, i would think leftwich would even be a better option than rex.

**kidtrax18** · 09-20-2007, 03:23 PM

Hey Cuse Fan

Originally posted by CuseFan10

KidTrax - Are you the kinda guy who plays roulette and plays red because black hit twice in a row and "there's no way it can hit again"? What happened last week has no bearing on what will happen this week, IMHO.

Did you read what I wrote or did you stop at the first sentence and then write an A + B = C response. In roulette the outcome of the last turn of the wheel has no effect on the outcome of the next spin, however in football the lines are driven significantly by public perception so if the public begins betting dogs based on the outcome of the week before then the lines will reflect that giving more value to the favorites. The key word is value I didn't say every favorite was going to cover. Without all those dogs covering last week I put the Indy line to open at a touchdown and the San Diego line to open at atleast 6. Now there is value on the favorites, see what I am talking about? Hey are you one of those guys that gets two sentences into a post and reacts too quickly posting a reply that is off base and acusitory without factual substantiation.

**kidtrax18** · 09-20-2007, 03:35 PM

I agree Daws1089, The Bears might be a good pick. Like you said the public is really down on the bears and too high on dallas. Its time for the disparity that has shown in the first two weeks between the way these two teams performed to come back to earth. Benson is coming off a 100 yrd game which indicates that they may be able to kill the clock play grind out D and take shots down the field to Berrian when the Cowboys stuff the box.
Cuse read a book called "Smart Money"

Week 3 Discussion

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