Modeposter Stifler's Mom

[rjp]

I'm not sure if this is a news flash to any of you, but let me give you some stats that mean something.

A team favored by 7 points figures to win 72% of the time, or in other words, when they win they'll fail to cover 22% of the time.

A team favored by 1.5 points figures to win figures to win 53% of the time, thus they'll win and fail to cover 3% of the time.

Now if you go in and add up all the numbers in between you'll stumble upon this magical stat that says just pick the winner.

Well, here's the newsflash: on every point spread the odds are such that this winning percentage has been taken into account, so unless you have a legit money line play on the team then there is no value just laying the odds because you figure they will win.

This is right up there with betting something because it's 3-1 ATS over the last 4. Mathematically it holds no weight, and you might as well flip a coin!

Did I mention Bills + the points this week?? ;)

[Stifler's Mom]

RJP - Ive tracked it for 3 seasons. It works. I don't know what else to say.

It seems to be that you are assuming all point spreads are based on some mathematical formula. That couldn't be any further from correct.

The whole point of my "system" as some have called it, is to say that it is a losing proposition to say "Well, Philly wins, but no way they'll cover the -6, I'm taking Detroit", or "TB wins, but it'll be a close one, so the +4 is golden"

That's stupid thinking. Unless you feel the dog wins outright, a conclusion you have to come up with using whatever handicapping method you choose, then taking +7 or less, is a losing proposition. End of story. There's just no way enough dogs of +7 or less lose, but cover, to make that a profitable way of handicapping.

The trick is to pick the outright winner....something that those of you who are familiar with office pools know isn't always easy in the NFL on games where the line is +7 or less.

Sure, any dumbass can say "NE is going to beat BUF this Sunday" and probably be right, lol....but how about PHI/DET. How about TB/STL? How about MIA/NYJ?

Not as easy.

But if you see STL +4, or DET +6, you are much more likely to make the play I'd think, than if you had to just pick the winner, because the points give you a "comfort zone". One that is very false and misleading more often than it is not.

The points are an illusion to get the action the way the oddsmakers/books want it. They probably won't matter, and rarely do.

[rjp]

You are right in that the points rarely do matter, but there is a direct relationship between the probability of winning and the probability of covering a specific point spread.

A team at +6 is more likely to lose and cover the point spread than a team that is lined at +3.

I just hate to see this theory of "just pick the winner" floating around. It just doesn't add up, as this probability of actually picking the winner correctly is already built into the point spread.

[rjp]

It seems to be that you are assuming all point spreads are based on some mathematical formula. That couldn't be any further from correct.

I can prove otherwise if you're interested.

[Underdog88]

A team at +6 is more likely to lose and cover the point spread than a team that is lined at +3.

I just hate to see this theory of "just pick the winner" floating around. It just doesn't add up, as this probability of actually picking the winner correctly is already built into the point spread.

Even if a higher dog is more likely to lose su & cover, aren't the % of that occuring still too negligible to matter long term? Assuming you can pick a winner, would forgoing the spread & playing them on the ml (+1 to +7) at an equal unit be more favorable long-term?


I see your point (about probability of a team winning being factored in already) but am willing to accept those small occurences. They are more than made up for long term IMO. Even a dog at +3 can get +150 (give or take), which makes a 2-3 day no loss. You have an interesting style of capping, do you ever factor in situational stuff, or is it all probability & value? Curious why you think it doesn't add up, as I respect your opinions :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I can prove otherwise if you're interested.

I would love for you to do so.

Lets take PSU and Michigan this Saturday. You're telling me there is a mathematical forumla that says PSU is exactly 3 points better than Michigan this season on Michigan's home field?

Or how about tonight's CFB game. How does one determine that Oklahoma is exactly 23.5 points better than Tulsa?

Or how is it that the Jets come to be mathematically exactly a -3 fave over Miami.

How could ANY line ever have a hook, as a score could never land on something.5 points.

The concept that some computer spits out lines and the books post them makes no sense.

If every line was "right on", all any of us would be doing was flippping a coin on every selection, and there would be no such thing as line value, or a bad line.

The simple fact is that the lines are there to entice people to bet on each side, as evenly as possible. I'm not saying they don't use any type of probability in their conclusions, just that the books don't care if they're off by 10 or 20 points, as long as they collect their vig, and these lines are made by people with a ton of history and experience in the bookmaking industry, who take ALL factors into consideration when producing a point spread....and you can rest assured that public perception is a key factor used in making lines, and that they know who the public is going to pound on most of the lines they release.

[rjp]

Even if a higher dog is more likely to lose su & cover, aren't the % of that occuring still too negligible to matter long term? Assuming you can pick a winner, would forgoing the spread & playing them on the ml (+1 to +7) at an equal unit be more favorable long-term?


I see your point (about probability of a team winning being factored in already) but am willing to accept those small occurences. They are more than made up for long term IMO. Even a dog at +3 can get +150 (give or take), which makes a 2-3 day no loss. You have an interesting style of capping, do you ever factor in situational stuff, or is it all probability & value? Curious why you think it doesn't add up, as I respect your opinions :thumbs:

You don't want to bet the same amount on an underdog money line assuming you had the same size edge on the point spread, but yes the money line typically offers more value over the point spread.

Margins of victory are symmetrically distributed, so I use this distribution to approximate the value of a given point in a given game. A majority of my bets are made in derivative markets (H+R+E props in MLB, for example) that can be beat as the efficient point spread and totals market can show you where the value is, if you understand how the underlying distributions work.

[rjp]

Stif, let me try to clarify. Based on the probability of a team winning, point spread odds can be approximated using a probability distribution.

The Jets are exactly a 3 point favorite as they're expected to win about 58.5% of the time. By giving up 3 points this provides Miami with a 50% probability of covering +3 and the Jets a 50% probability of covering -3.