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Like the card a lot this week hopefully it treats me well....
Panthers -6.5 @ -105 to win 4 units
My favorite play on the card. Houstons turned into a sexy pick this year and I admit I went against them last week and it bit me on the ass as KC really is awful but much different match up this time around. First Green won't find much running room out there this week. Carolina can stuff the run with just its front and the pass rush they generate will be far more intense than anything a Jared Allen-less kc squad could generate. That leaves people to fall back into coverage. Houstons attack should be very one dimensional in this one and the panthers will take advantage. On offense carolina came up on very easy pickins with stl last week but the dual attack should create trouble for the texans as the texans will have to key in on an explosive recievers in this game which should open things up on the ground. Delhommes not a great qb but he's experienced and the texans won't be coming with anything he hasn't seen. Much different in a hostile environment this time around too for the texans. For less than a score it's a big play for me.
7 point, 2 team teaser - 130 to win 2 units
Jags - 3 x Steel -3
Don't go big on teasers usually and while this isn't huge it's more than the 1 unit I would normally play. Do I need to say much about the jags??? solid d, the o isn't amazing but when all they're gonna do is hand off 50 times a game it will be more than enough. You can usually cap for one td coming back for a td with harrington as well lol. As for the steel, if this is in buffalo I would probably leave this alone but the steel at home will dismantle this undertalented bills team. The steel have a way of making bad teams look really bad in pitt. I'm just banking on that to continue.
Vikes + 3 @ + 103 x 2 units
Fading another sexy pick here by taking the vikes. Like the carolina game I see this one becoming a one dimensional showing by the lions. The vikes front is tough vs the run which should mean plenty of 3rd and longs. We had Kitna here in Seattle the one thing he was good for was moving the team but f'in it up somehow. The vikes will let him beat himself all day long. They'll drop men into coverage and force Kitna to throw into tight spots and his history has been that that doesn't go well for him. On offense the vikes are anemic, there's no sugarcoating it. Jackson isn't a great qb yet, he may never be but he's certainly not it now. Unlike Kitna however he isn't going to be asked to win the game his jobs to manage it and with that he should be okay. The running game is where the vikes will do their damage. Petersons a bruiser and a flat out stud. Jordan can't compare to him and the line he comes in behind but he had a very solid day running on these lions. Hell the raiders the 2nd half moved the ball with ease. The vikes won't make it look pretty but they will move the ball. If the lions fall behind early, the more they'll pass, the more Kitna makes mistakes. Not a good match up for the lions imo.
Seahawks - 3 @ + 105 x 2 units
Oh how quickly my hawks get written off. They destroy tampa and I gotta read about the Cards recievers and how improved the run game looked and their d and blah blah blah. I watched the game vs the niners last week and I noticed a couple things. Leinart has very little mobility which against our pass rush is asking for trouble. The improved d is just pinning its ears back and coming in hoping that the pressure will be enough. Well Hass is a vet and this is the wco so getting the ball out quick and audiblizing at the line something we're very used to against a team blitzing like they did on monday works to our strength. When the cards beat us last year we had some issues, oline was patch work, hass and shaun were both in and out of the line up so never in sinc and our secondary was a real issue with injuries and just poor overall play. This revamped secondary is much stronger and less prone to giving up the big play and are surer tacklers, important vs recievers who excel with yards after the catch. Edge shouldn't be a huge issue in this one either, our dline should match up well enough the improved but still bad oline of the cards. Off the short week we should be the fresher of the 2 teams. We owe the cards one and paybacks a bitch.
Chargers/Pats u 46 @ -107 to win 2 units
Just comes down to 2 very good defenses facing off. We saw what it meant last week vs the bears, and while I see more scoring than that game I don't see the total getting past the mid 30's. The pats looked awesome on offense last week but that was the jets, they were feeble on pass rush, pass coverage and everything in between. I expect the chargers to be able to get pressure on brady which should limit the long ball attempts as there just wont be the time to get guys downfield. Methodically working down the field is what im expecting out of both sides. Chargers will be handing off to LT a ton in this one or dumping it off to him. Pats will be looking to run quite a bit as well. Time should be eaten off the clocks with all the runs and dump offs so even if the results are tds the drives themselves should be long enough to limit the amount of total scores.
Colts/Titans o 45 @ -109 to win 2 units
The titans are just weak on the defensive side of the ball, nothing else to it. Their strength if there is one may be in the run defense so I don't see Indy pounding the ball all day, it's not their strength and it would keep the game closer to what the titans would want to play. Peyton should be able to pick apart the secondary for the titans and I see quick scores on offense for them. If the the titans will want to keep up they'll have to toss with them. Indy's d was good last week but I believe they overperformed some and the combo of vinces arm and legs should keep them off balance. Colts may hit 5-6 scores on their own which should mean just a couple from the titans would be more than enough.
Niners/Rams over 43.5 @ -105 to win 2 units
Niners looked brutal till that last drive last week, big reason for how brutal they looked was how 1 dimensional they were. Gore had no room out there and Smith was forced to beat them and he did, barely. The rams are just terrible vs the run, as evidenced by the show the panthers put on them last week. Gore should have a field day and rip off chunks of yardage. The rams will have to counter by bringing people up and opening up the passing game. To makes matters worse for the rams they've lost Hill and browns already serving a suspension so they're down to 3 corners. Run or pass the field should be pretty open for the 9ers. The 9ers looked good on d themselves last week and boast a tough secondary but this is one experienced rams group so you can't count them out. Bulger is as accurate an arm as there is out there so despite talented corners the deep recieving corps of the rams who will have Bennett in this week should find ways to get the ball down the field. Edge and the brutal cards oline found success vs the 9ers, Jackson should find room out there to do his thing as well. This one should sail into the 50's.
Dolphins/Cowboys u42 @ -139 to win 2 units
Bought this one up a point and a half cause I wanted that extra safety here. Cowboys looked good against a bad giants d last week so the tendency is to believe Romo and the cowboys offense is very good but against this very tough dolphins defense I have my doubts. Romo won't have the time or the room he had last week. Cowboys as good as they looked on o last week they looked just as bad on d. Manning was great last week and he had some weapons at his disposal. Green doesn't have the same weapons and doesn't have the arm Eli does. He'll nickle and dime his way downfield and eat up clock as he does it. If Newman plays this play is that much better but he's game time. Either way I dont see either offense putting up big numbers while I see good games for both d's.
GL everyone
P.S. it's been a long day so if something didn't make sense just let it slide lol
Panthers -6.5 @ -105 to win 4 units
My favorite play on the card. Houstons turned into a sexy pick this year and I admit I went against them last week and it bit me on the ass as KC really is awful but much different match up this time around. First Green won't find much running room out there this week. Carolina can stuff the run with just its front and the pass rush they generate will be far more intense than anything a Jared Allen-less kc squad could generate. That leaves people to fall back into coverage. Houstons attack should be very one dimensional in this one and the panthers will take advantage. On offense carolina came up on very easy pickins with stl last week but the dual attack should create trouble for the texans as the texans will have to key in on an explosive recievers in this game which should open things up on the ground. Delhommes not a great qb but he's experienced and the texans won't be coming with anything he hasn't seen. Much different in a hostile environment this time around too for the texans. For less than a score it's a big play for me.
7 point, 2 team teaser - 130 to win 2 units
Jags - 3 x Steel -3
Don't go big on teasers usually and while this isn't huge it's more than the 1 unit I would normally play. Do I need to say much about the jags??? solid d, the o isn't amazing but when all they're gonna do is hand off 50 times a game it will be more than enough. You can usually cap for one td coming back for a td with harrington as well lol. As for the steel, if this is in buffalo I would probably leave this alone but the steel at home will dismantle this undertalented bills team. The steel have a way of making bad teams look really bad in pitt. I'm just banking on that to continue.
Vikes + 3 @ + 103 x 2 units
Fading another sexy pick here by taking the vikes. Like the carolina game I see this one becoming a one dimensional showing by the lions. The vikes front is tough vs the run which should mean plenty of 3rd and longs. We had Kitna here in Seattle the one thing he was good for was moving the team but f'in it up somehow. The vikes will let him beat himself all day long. They'll drop men into coverage and force Kitna to throw into tight spots and his history has been that that doesn't go well for him. On offense the vikes are anemic, there's no sugarcoating it. Jackson isn't a great qb yet, he may never be but he's certainly not it now. Unlike Kitna however he isn't going to be asked to win the game his jobs to manage it and with that he should be okay. The running game is where the vikes will do their damage. Petersons a bruiser and a flat out stud. Jordan can't compare to him and the line he comes in behind but he had a very solid day running on these lions. Hell the raiders the 2nd half moved the ball with ease. The vikes won't make it look pretty but they will move the ball. If the lions fall behind early, the more they'll pass, the more Kitna makes mistakes. Not a good match up for the lions imo.
Seahawks - 3 @ + 105 x 2 units
Oh how quickly my hawks get written off. They destroy tampa and I gotta read about the Cards recievers and how improved the run game looked and their d and blah blah blah. I watched the game vs the niners last week and I noticed a couple things. Leinart has very little mobility which against our pass rush is asking for trouble. The improved d is just pinning its ears back and coming in hoping that the pressure will be enough. Well Hass is a vet and this is the wco so getting the ball out quick and audiblizing at the line something we're very used to against a team blitzing like they did on monday works to our strength. When the cards beat us last year we had some issues, oline was patch work, hass and shaun were both in and out of the line up so never in sinc and our secondary was a real issue with injuries and just poor overall play. This revamped secondary is much stronger and less prone to giving up the big play and are surer tacklers, important vs recievers who excel with yards after the catch. Edge shouldn't be a huge issue in this one either, our dline should match up well enough the improved but still bad oline of the cards. Off the short week we should be the fresher of the 2 teams. We owe the cards one and paybacks a bitch.
Chargers/Pats u 46 @ -107 to win 2 units
Just comes down to 2 very good defenses facing off. We saw what it meant last week vs the bears, and while I see more scoring than that game I don't see the total getting past the mid 30's. The pats looked awesome on offense last week but that was the jets, they were feeble on pass rush, pass coverage and everything in between. I expect the chargers to be able to get pressure on brady which should limit the long ball attempts as there just wont be the time to get guys downfield. Methodically working down the field is what im expecting out of both sides. Chargers will be handing off to LT a ton in this one or dumping it off to him. Pats will be looking to run quite a bit as well. Time should be eaten off the clocks with all the runs and dump offs so even if the results are tds the drives themselves should be long enough to limit the amount of total scores.
Colts/Titans o 45 @ -109 to win 2 units
The titans are just weak on the defensive side of the ball, nothing else to it. Their strength if there is one may be in the run defense so I don't see Indy pounding the ball all day, it's not their strength and it would keep the game closer to what the titans would want to play. Peyton should be able to pick apart the secondary for the titans and I see quick scores on offense for them. If the the titans will want to keep up they'll have to toss with them. Indy's d was good last week but I believe they overperformed some and the combo of vinces arm and legs should keep them off balance. Colts may hit 5-6 scores on their own which should mean just a couple from the titans would be more than enough.
Niners/Rams over 43.5 @ -105 to win 2 units
Niners looked brutal till that last drive last week, big reason for how brutal they looked was how 1 dimensional they were. Gore had no room out there and Smith was forced to beat them and he did, barely. The rams are just terrible vs the run, as evidenced by the show the panthers put on them last week. Gore should have a field day and rip off chunks of yardage. The rams will have to counter by bringing people up and opening up the passing game. To makes matters worse for the rams they've lost Hill and browns already serving a suspension so they're down to 3 corners. Run or pass the field should be pretty open for the 9ers. The 9ers looked good on d themselves last week and boast a tough secondary but this is one experienced rams group so you can't count them out. Bulger is as accurate an arm as there is out there so despite talented corners the deep recieving corps of the rams who will have Bennett in this week should find ways to get the ball down the field. Edge and the brutal cards oline found success vs the 9ers, Jackson should find room out there to do his thing as well. This one should sail into the 50's.
Dolphins/Cowboys u42 @ -139 to win 2 units
Bought this one up a point and a half cause I wanted that extra safety here. Cowboys looked good against a bad giants d last week so the tendency is to believe Romo and the cowboys offense is very good but against this very tough dolphins defense I have my doubts. Romo won't have the time or the room he had last week. Cowboys as good as they looked on o last week they looked just as bad on d. Manning was great last week and he had some weapons at his disposal. Green doesn't have the same weapons and doesn't have the arm Eli does. He'll nickle and dime his way downfield and eat up clock as he does it. If Newman plays this play is that much better but he's game time. Either way I dont see either offense putting up big numbers while I see good games for both d's.
GL everyone
P.S. it's been a long day so if something didn't make sense just let it slide lol
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