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LAST WEEK
Best Bets (1-0)(+3.00 units)
Strong Plays (2-1)(+1.80 units)
Regular Plays (3-3)(-0.30 units)
Overall (6-4)(+4.50 units)
Week one is over. I was very happy overall with the results, although I gave back 2.20 units dropping both Monday Night games. I had a feeling I should not have played those, but it is so hard to pass up those Monday Night games. I have always struggled in those prime time affairs. That makes me 0-3 this year when you include that Thursday night game. I am excited for week two, have a little bit of confidence going right now. Here is what I have come up with.
Cincinnati -6.5 vs Cleveland (best bet)………………The steelers got a bye week last week, and now the bengals do this week. Sorry Browns fans. This is about a 95% play against the Browns and has nothing to do with Cincy. The browns are really messed up and I don’t think they have any idea what they are doing or what direction they are going. How do you trade your starting QB after week one??? I imagine the Browns and their fans will be pumped up for this one, but as soon as they fall behind or run a real idiotic play, the fans will turn on them and it will be down here from there. Carson Palmer should have a big day. Bengals by at least 14.
New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa Bay (best bet)…………Don’t let that blowout at Indianapolis fool you. The Saints are a much better team that that. They looked horrible and yet were still tied at the half. Giving up the 41 to the Colts does not bother me, especially when you compare the Bucs offense with the Colts. There is no way Bush and Brees will be held down like in their opener. This might not be a blowout…not too many teams go into Tampa with their defense and walk all over them, but the Saints will come out and look like a completely different team this week and win by at least six.
Jacksonville -10 vs Atlanta (strong play)……….I normally don’t like to lay this many in the nfl, especially on a best bet, but this one has blowout written all over it. Atlanta does not suck like the Browns, but they are a team in trouble..at least this year. For starters, any team led by any former Miami Dolphin QB is in trouble. Joey Harrington will make a few good plays, but he will also make a few boneheaded plays that usually lead directly to points. I predict an interception run back for a touchdown in this game. The Jags were shocked last week losing to Tennessee, but I like this Jags team, especially at home. I think they are going to unload on this Falcon team this week. Atlanta will not be able to catch up if they fall behind. Their only hope is to run ball and use up clock, because they have no passing game….for that matter they did not even when Vick was there. Look for the Jags to blow this game open in the third quarter and never look back. Jacksonville 41 Atlanta 17.
Tennessee +7 vs Indianapolis (strong play)…………..This one takes some guts, but Vince Young just keeps finding ways to move the ball. He might be the most exciting QB out there right now. Notice I did not say the best, but most exciting. You can never count him out. The league will eventually shut him down. Most running QB’s in the NFL don’t last, but until then I will take him when getting a touchdown. Tennessee usually gives the Colts are hard time anyway, and I don’t think this will be any different. Even though the Colts won last week 41-10, I don’t think they looked all that great doing it, at least in the first half. Tennessee can pass, and they can run. The Colts defense is not dominating. In addition to all of this, people talk about how the New England and the Colts are, but they are both going to lose some games this year. They will not go undefeated. This is definitely on of those games where they are in danger of losing.
Miami +4 vs Dallas (regular play)…………….Not many people out there giving the Dolphins a chance this week…..not even me and that is why I am taking them. Trent Green looked better than I thought he would, but Miami lost in OT at Washington. One thing for certain about the Dolphins is that their defense is noticeably better at home than on the road. The fish are loaded on the defensive side of the ball and I really think Cam Cameron is going to pull out all the stops in this one to try and win over some of the Dolphins fans who are doubter. Look for a few trick plays and a quick touchdown or two from the fish. I really think Miami holds Dallas to 17 or less points in this game while Miami scores at least 20, so yes I am calling for the outright win here.
San Diego +4 vs New England (regular play)…………I really like this one, but I am not crazy enough to make it a two or three unit play. Like mentioned above, the Pats are not going 16-0 and this game is one they are in danger of losing. All you here is how loaded the Pats are and on paper nobody even comes close to this (cheating) team. If that were the case, shouldn’t they be a much bigger favorite than 4 at home? The Chargers did not look all that great last week vs Chicago. I guess you have to give some credit to the Bears defense in that one. Of course the Bears lack of offense is why the Chargers won that game. I think you will see a much better offensive game this week from the Chargers. The Chargers will score more this week, but they will probably give up more this week as well. I just see this game being decided in the fourth quarter and the four points should come into play.
Other games I could not pull the trigger on who I liked were Buffalo and Oakland. I might come back later and add these. If I do, they will only be my smallest regular play for one unit.
Good Luck Everybody!!
Best Bets (1-0)(+3.00 units)
Strong Plays (2-1)(+1.80 units)
Regular Plays (3-3)(-0.30 units)
Overall (6-4)(+4.50 units)
Week one is over. I was very happy overall with the results, although I gave back 2.20 units dropping both Monday Night games. I had a feeling I should not have played those, but it is so hard to pass up those Monday Night games. I have always struggled in those prime time affairs. That makes me 0-3 this year when you include that Thursday night game. I am excited for week two, have a little bit of confidence going right now. Here is what I have come up with.
Cincinnati -6.5 vs Cleveland (best bet)………………The steelers got a bye week last week, and now the bengals do this week. Sorry Browns fans. This is about a 95% play against the Browns and has nothing to do with Cincy. The browns are really messed up and I don’t think they have any idea what they are doing or what direction they are going. How do you trade your starting QB after week one??? I imagine the Browns and their fans will be pumped up for this one, but as soon as they fall behind or run a real idiotic play, the fans will turn on them and it will be down here from there. Carson Palmer should have a big day. Bengals by at least 14.
New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa Bay (best bet)…………Don’t let that blowout at Indianapolis fool you. The Saints are a much better team that that. They looked horrible and yet were still tied at the half. Giving up the 41 to the Colts does not bother me, especially when you compare the Bucs offense with the Colts. There is no way Bush and Brees will be held down like in their opener. This might not be a blowout…not too many teams go into Tampa with their defense and walk all over them, but the Saints will come out and look like a completely different team this week and win by at least six.
Jacksonville -10 vs Atlanta (strong play)……….I normally don’t like to lay this many in the nfl, especially on a best bet, but this one has blowout written all over it. Atlanta does not suck like the Browns, but they are a team in trouble..at least this year. For starters, any team led by any former Miami Dolphin QB is in trouble. Joey Harrington will make a few good plays, but he will also make a few boneheaded plays that usually lead directly to points. I predict an interception run back for a touchdown in this game. The Jags were shocked last week losing to Tennessee, but I like this Jags team, especially at home. I think they are going to unload on this Falcon team this week. Atlanta will not be able to catch up if they fall behind. Their only hope is to run ball and use up clock, because they have no passing game….for that matter they did not even when Vick was there. Look for the Jags to blow this game open in the third quarter and never look back. Jacksonville 41 Atlanta 17.
Tennessee +7 vs Indianapolis (strong play)…………..This one takes some guts, but Vince Young just keeps finding ways to move the ball. He might be the most exciting QB out there right now. Notice I did not say the best, but most exciting. You can never count him out. The league will eventually shut him down. Most running QB’s in the NFL don’t last, but until then I will take him when getting a touchdown. Tennessee usually gives the Colts are hard time anyway, and I don’t think this will be any different. Even though the Colts won last week 41-10, I don’t think they looked all that great doing it, at least in the first half. Tennessee can pass, and they can run. The Colts defense is not dominating. In addition to all of this, people talk about how the New England and the Colts are, but they are both going to lose some games this year. They will not go undefeated. This is definitely on of those games where they are in danger of losing.
Miami +4 vs Dallas (regular play)…………….Not many people out there giving the Dolphins a chance this week…..not even me and that is why I am taking them. Trent Green looked better than I thought he would, but Miami lost in OT at Washington. One thing for certain about the Dolphins is that their defense is noticeably better at home than on the road. The fish are loaded on the defensive side of the ball and I really think Cam Cameron is going to pull out all the stops in this one to try and win over some of the Dolphins fans who are doubter. Look for a few trick plays and a quick touchdown or two from the fish. I really think Miami holds Dallas to 17 or less points in this game while Miami scores at least 20, so yes I am calling for the outright win here.
San Diego +4 vs New England (regular play)…………I really like this one, but I am not crazy enough to make it a two or three unit play. Like mentioned above, the Pats are not going 16-0 and this game is one they are in danger of losing. All you here is how loaded the Pats are and on paper nobody even comes close to this (cheating) team. If that were the case, shouldn’t they be a much bigger favorite than 4 at home? The Chargers did not look all that great last week vs Chicago. I guess you have to give some credit to the Bears defense in that one. Of course the Bears lack of offense is why the Chargers won that game. I think you will see a much better offensive game this week from the Chargers. The Chargers will score more this week, but they will probably give up more this week as well. I just see this game being decided in the fourth quarter and the four points should come into play.
Other games I could not pull the trigger on who I liked were Buffalo and Oakland. I might come back later and add these. If I do, they will only be my smallest regular play for one unit.
Good Luck Everybody!!
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