Monday NBA Play

[Kevin]

YTD: 60-54-1 +0.20 Units

Been on a heck of a slide lately. This always seems to happen late in the season. I'm thinking that on days when the NCAA tournament is going on NBA players lose focus and paying more attention to those games more than you would think they do. Mix that in with some teams starting to tank games to get better lottery position and you have handicapping chaos! I'm not trying to make excuses for losses. What's odd is that I handicap the same exact way and do pretty decent right up until a certain point each year and things seem to fall apart at the end, so am trying to identify what that cause is. Anybody else notice bizarre results late in the NBA season each year? Players are probably wearing down and becoming less predictable too. Injuries etc, but those are things I watch out for, so I dont think it's that as much as its the NCAA tournament and tanking. Would love to hear anybody elses thoughts about this.

Taking:

Toronto Raptors -2

Good luck to all!

[buckfan]

I have a theory...it has also happened to me...and often does in all sports . My theory is this. The oddsmakers change their way of thinking at times to level the books. I often look for good dogs with advantage by using power rAnkings and predicting scores. I will always seem to win a lot certain periods of seasons then it just goes completely wrong. The books will shade on way or the other for awhile....once the sharps (I'd speculate that those guys fade the public majority of time and play with a much larger bank) have hit the books hard the oddsmakers start to fade lines where more of the public (majority of favs) start to win for a period of time. This allows them to grab their 10% . Now the trick at least in my eyes would be to able to tell when this shift was occurring to try to switch your way of thinking. A example of this would be a few games this past week when my dogs I usually grab came up not even close and the lines almost seemed to easy, yet golden state (big public team all year) had two covers on short line this week when they were carrying about 80% of the action. In the above game you picked im going other way for same reason....my normal thinking would back your pick but I'm rolling with public because that seems to b the trend last few weeks....idk maybe I'm crazy but this is my thought....good luck to all and their bets tonight....can't wait for baseball to arrive!!!!!!