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Playoffs 100-118 +32.8 units
Cavs+8 gm1
3 units
Played this Sunday morning.... Nobody is giving the Cavs a shot, seems as if the oddsmakers aren't either. 8 pts? I know the Spurs have been resting while the Cavs have been battling the Stones, but hell they have till thursday to rest up. Fact of the matter is I think the Cavs match up pretty well with the Spurs....
PG- Parker is one of the best pgs in the game, it will be interesting to see how Gibson/Hughes play against him. Gibson has really been a spark the last couple games, nice to see a young kid step up & make plays. I really don't see him pulling a no show now. My concern is that Parker will look to draw contact & get him in foul trouble a bit more than Billups/Rip did. Snow is great defensively, but such an offensive liability- it'll interesting to see how coach Brown will work the matchups....
SG- IMO this could be problematic for the Cavs, as Pavlovic has been a liability in my eyes- Ginobili/Finley could potentially eat him up offensively. Ginobili is another player that is great at getting to the hoop. Barry doesn't scare me much.
SF- Um, LeBron James. No doubt Bowen is a great defender, & I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see LJ held under 24 ppg, but you have to look at the bigger picture- this is not just a scorer, but a great team player. Who have you seen his size that can pass the ball as well as him? He avg 9.2 reb vs Det (2 higher than in the regular season), 8.5 assists per game (2.5 better than regular season). Those are staggering numbers, especially for a 22 year old! His Ft % is 7% higher as well. In short, he is playing the best he has ever played, & in turn is making everyone around him that much better. X-Factor
PF- Duncan will get his pts, it's inevitable. IMO one of the best all around players in the game ever. He's also a great flopper LoL. The Cavs need to go right at him on offense & hope to get him in foul trouble early... Gooden will likely be in foul trouble the whole series, I like Varejao to pester Tim a bit though. IMO Horry off the bench has been less & less of an impact as the playoffs have progressed, while Marshall nearly doubled his minutes in the Detroit series, I would expect him to play around 18 min per this series.
C- Z must stay out of foul trouble & look to attack a bit more. IMO he tends to settle way to much rather than battle for position. He had a couple stretches in the Detroit series where he stepped up huge- game 5 I believe scoring 8 straight pts...again i like Varejao off the bench as he is scrappy & fights for rebounds.
Of course the Spurs have the decided edge in experience, but so did the Pistons! To me 8 pts is simply too much to pass up. Some numbers...
The Spurs are 11-5 ats in the playoffs (12-4 su)
The Cavs are 10-4-2 ats (12-4 su)
The Cavs beat the Spurs in SA as 6 pt dogs early in the season (88-81), & again as 4 pt home dogs (82-78)
Although combined these 2 teams avg around 195 per game, the total is set @ 180.5
I think the total says a lot about what kind of game we'll see. I expect games played in the mid-high 80's. I am hesitant to play the under in SA though, as all 9 home games the Spurs have played have gone well over the total set for game 1. 4 of Cleveland's 8 road playoff games went over... I'll likely look into half plays concerning the totals, as i tend to get a better feel after watching the pace a bit....
I have also decided to let the Cavs future ride... sure I could play on the Spurs for a 3 unit profit either way, but hell it's 1 unit & I believe. Given the 2-3-2 setup, the Cavs need to steal one of the first 2 in SA to have a solid shot. I'll be grabbing a little of the ML as well. GLTA, & feel free to post some thoughts :jiggy:
Cavs+8 gm1
3 units
Played this Sunday morning.... Nobody is giving the Cavs a shot, seems as if the oddsmakers aren't either. 8 pts? I know the Spurs have been resting while the Cavs have been battling the Stones, but hell they have till thursday to rest up. Fact of the matter is I think the Cavs match up pretty well with the Spurs....
PG- Parker is one of the best pgs in the game, it will be interesting to see how Gibson/Hughes play against him. Gibson has really been a spark the last couple games, nice to see a young kid step up & make plays. I really don't see him pulling a no show now. My concern is that Parker will look to draw contact & get him in foul trouble a bit more than Billups/Rip did. Snow is great defensively, but such an offensive liability- it'll interesting to see how coach Brown will work the matchups....
SG- IMO this could be problematic for the Cavs, as Pavlovic has been a liability in my eyes- Ginobili/Finley could potentially eat him up offensively. Ginobili is another player that is great at getting to the hoop. Barry doesn't scare me much.
SF- Um, LeBron James. No doubt Bowen is a great defender, & I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see LJ held under 24 ppg, but you have to look at the bigger picture- this is not just a scorer, but a great team player. Who have you seen his size that can pass the ball as well as him? He avg 9.2 reb vs Det (2 higher than in the regular season), 8.5 assists per game (2.5 better than regular season). Those are staggering numbers, especially for a 22 year old! His Ft % is 7% higher as well. In short, he is playing the best he has ever played, & in turn is making everyone around him that much better. X-Factor
PF- Duncan will get his pts, it's inevitable. IMO one of the best all around players in the game ever. He's also a great flopper LoL. The Cavs need to go right at him on offense & hope to get him in foul trouble early... Gooden will likely be in foul trouble the whole series, I like Varejao to pester Tim a bit though. IMO Horry off the bench has been less & less of an impact as the playoffs have progressed, while Marshall nearly doubled his minutes in the Detroit series, I would expect him to play around 18 min per this series.
C- Z must stay out of foul trouble & look to attack a bit more. IMO he tends to settle way to much rather than battle for position. He had a couple stretches in the Detroit series where he stepped up huge- game 5 I believe scoring 8 straight pts...again i like Varejao off the bench as he is scrappy & fights for rebounds.
Of course the Spurs have the decided edge in experience, but so did the Pistons! To me 8 pts is simply too much to pass up. Some numbers...
The Spurs are 11-5 ats in the playoffs (12-4 su)
The Cavs are 10-4-2 ats (12-4 su)
The Cavs beat the Spurs in SA as 6 pt dogs early in the season (88-81), & again as 4 pt home dogs (82-78)
Although combined these 2 teams avg around 195 per game, the total is set @ 180.5
I think the total says a lot about what kind of game we'll see. I expect games played in the mid-high 80's. I am hesitant to play the under in SA though, as all 9 home games the Spurs have played have gone well over the total set for game 1. 4 of Cleveland's 8 road playoff games went over... I'll likely look into half plays concerning the totals, as i tend to get a better feel after watching the pace a bit....
I have also decided to let the Cavs future ride... sure I could play on the Spurs for a 3 unit profit either way, but hell it's 1 unit & I believe. Given the 2-3-2 setup, the Cavs need to steal one of the first 2 in SA to have a solid shot. I'll be grabbing a little of the ML as well. GLTA, & feel free to post some thoughts :jiggy:
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