kevbo NBA picks

[kevbo2640]

LAL-10
i wanted the Kings but after looking at the stats this looks good for the lakers. the lakers will overachive against weaker teams and underachieve against stronger teams. Most of the kings players have done better last year than this year and most of them have done better at home then on the road i think the lakers will gladly stomp the Kings tonight

[kevbo2640]

lal won by 13 so i am up .9 of a unit for yesterday
Hawks+3 at a casino in Vegas not available on Bovada right now.
last years average for the 10 most probable players for the Hawks was 99.36 and portlands most probable 10 players scored 95.8 over a 240 minute average. Portland has given up a average of 104 points this season and Atlanta has given up an average of 94.8 so to me it looks like Atlanta will win by about 7 but homecourt may mean more than i think, I do remember Portland was much better at home last year.

[kevbo2640]

Hawks won by 8 so i am up .95 of a unit for yesterday
Sanantonio-1 -105
Spurs are a good team and i think the lakers wont do good against good teams I may just be a Laker hater so this may not be completely sound logic but the Spurs are a good horse to go with on most nights.

[kevbo2640]

8 wins 7 losses for the season .2 units in the black for the season
Minnesota-7.5
the Bobcats have a weak defense on the road it seams, and they just played yesterday while the timberwolves are rested and home.

[kevbo2640]

8 and 8 for the season down .8 units minnesota lost down 1 unit for yesterday.
Dallas+2
Dallas maverick score 99.5 points per 240 minutes played by the active roster in the last game and the pacers score 87.1 points per 240 minutes played by the active roster in their last game played, going by the season average per each player that was in those games.
Dallas gives up on average 98.5 points per game this season
Indiana gives up on average 91.5 per game this season.
For the most part Indiana keeps their opponents about 4 below their average and Dallas gives their opponents about 4 more points than average following that logic like a robot would have you figure Indiana will score 91 and Dallas will score 95

[kevbo2640]

Goldenstate+2
the Twolvs are destroyed by injuries right now.

[kevbo2640]

Toronto+7

[kevbo2640]

Toronto got killed today time for a comeback
Utah -3
Washington has not won a game yet and Utah is strugleing on the road i think Utah will do their best to blow this one out.

[kevbo2640]

lost one won one yesterday down .1 of a unit for yesterday
Thanks Guys
Knicks-7.5
The knicks will have some extra motivation off of a loss I ran all the numbers on this one and it looks like the Knicks will win by about 13 of course when i ran the numbers of Indian v Dallas it looked like Dallas would win by 4 and they lost by 20. The knicks have a good game in the paint and perimeter they also have a solid defense they keep their opponents under their average by a average of 5.6. Indiana is suffering with out Grainger and i dont see them keeping this one close.

[kevbo2640]

76ers-7
Philly defense holds their opponents below average and cleveland opponents score more than their average. I think Philly will score at will and cleveland will have trouble tonight.

[kevbo2640]

cant leave things alone here
Bulls+2
portland has no bench the Bulls just played yesterday and got destroyed by the clippers i think they will do what they can to win this one.

[kevbo2640]

Indiana-3
i liked this one better at -2 but i think it will still stand. Indiana has one of the best defenses and the last time these two teams played Indiana beat them by 4.

[kevbo2640]

Charlotte+5.5
Milwaukee gives up about 4 more points than average and Charlotte gives up about 4 points less than average . Milwaukee scores 103 per 240 minutes played and Charlotte scores 97 per 240 minutes played adding 4 to the 97 and subtracting 4 from the 103 you get 101 charlotte 99 milwaukee. Of course i dont know for sure what kind of offense the bucks run or the bobcats i do know that some teams defend shooting teams better and some teams defend paint scoring teams better, so there is a big hole in my logic and research here but i think i am on my way to a working regimen

[kevbo2640]

charlotte-2.5
Toronto is on a back to back and although all of their wins have been on the second of a back to back they have not played good defense on the road and Charlotte has played good defense at home if you take the players for Toronto that played yesterday and add up their season to date points then devide that by their season to date minutes and multiply that number by 240 you would get 100.2 do the same for Charlotte and you get 97.8 now look at the road defense for Toronto they give up about 6 more points than a team averages, look at Charlottes home defense and they hold their opponets 6 points below their average. so it is 94 for Toronto and 104 for Charlotte.

:beer2:

[kevbo2640]

Lakers-5.5
this is the second road game of the season for the Lakers and the first back to back but with 2 7 footers for the Lakers and a weak interior team for the Kings i see a blood bath a coming. The Kings are the only team in the league that gives up more turnovers than the Lakers so just about every stat is owned by L.A tonight.