UDoggie's Conference Championships

**FlyersFan** · 05-22-2007, 02:39 PM

Buffalo.............:blackeye: :puke:

Udoggiedog- GL!....:beerbang:

**Underdog88** · 05-22-2007, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Buffalo.............:blackeye: :puke:

Tell me about it.... if there is another city anywhere in America that is more cursed, I'd love to hear about it. After game 2 I knew the series was over- didn't even watch game 5 LoL. Gonna be interesting to see what moves they make- Oh well, I still got the Bills :beerbang:

**emv01** · 05-22-2007, 02:48 PM

LOL...Cleveland is right up their with you....People probably still have nightmare about MJ's shot..

**Stifler's Mom** · 05-22-2007, 03:28 PM

Bills :beerbang: :beerbang:

Gonna be with you on that under as well. Waiting to hit the Jazz side in game 3 if i can get a favorable line....actually, I'm kinda hoping SA blows them out tonight so i can get them as a home dog in game 3.

GL

**Underdog88** · 05-23-2007, 11:02 AM

Jeeeeesus.....Spurs shoot over 55% & 50% from 3 pt land....

Stif- IMO you'll be getting the Jazz as short dogs game 3. I don't think I'll be able to back the Jazz though, considering chasing the under though.... I'll be on the Cavs+pts Thursday, hoping to get a 6, but I doubt it. The way i see it, every game this series will be a last possesion type- game, so IMO the points are the way to go.....

**FlyersFan** · 05-23-2007, 11:56 AM

**FlyersFan** · 05-23-2007, 01:36 PM

**Stifler's Mom** · 05-23-2007, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Underdog88

Jeeeeesus.....Spurs shoot over 55% & 50% from 3 pt land....

Stif- IMO you'll be getting the Jazz as short dogs game 3. I don't think I'll be able to back the Jazz though, considering chasing the under though.... I'll be on the Cavs+pts Thursday, hoping to get a 6, but I doubt it. The way i see it, every game this series will be a last possesion type- game, so IMO the points are the way to go.....

Utah is actually -2. I expected them to be a home dog, but the way I see it, the fact that they are favored only makes the play stronger.....in that there is absolutely no reason the oddsmakers would favor the Jazz, knowing they're gonna take a huge amount of public money on the Spurs, unless they thought they were going to cover a huge percentage of the time, or that the sharp money would be on Utah....or both.

So basically they're giving you their opinion that they think the Jazz is the correct play, and that they're comfortable with taking a possible public overload on the Spurs as a dog....and this is one of those spots where I just have to trust the guys who know more about sports wagering than anyone else on the planet. The only thing that could keep me off that one is a huge percentage on the Jazz (highly unlikely), in which case I'd feel like I may be misreading the line and situation, and then it would become a no play.

Given the line and situation however, i would not make a bet on the Spurs in game 3 with Thenextworldc's money, LOL.

Considering backing Cleveland tonight as well. I see no reason, other than public perception, why either of these teams should be more than a -2 or -3 fave over the other one, so at nearly double that, the odds are at the least in my favor in taking the points.

GL :beerbang:

**FlyersFan** · 05-23-2007, 02:02 PM

stif- interesting to see your thoughts on this one. I don't see too many other people who follow the oddsmaker and use that term "giving you their opinion". I personally think that anytime you can get the oddsmakers read on something, it is the way to go more times than not. I don't put much creedence in the whole public thing because we are the public...kind of funny how everyone always excludes themselves from that group. Public can be right or wrong and who the public likes isn't nearly as important as who the oddsmaker likes, IMO. And most of the time, the public is going to be against the oddsmaker anyway in a situation like this, so i guess it really doesn't matter. I don't do the NBA and i couldn't tell you what a good or bad line is, but in CFB and CBB, it is a great tool. GL! with it....

**rjp** · 05-23-2007, 02:50 PM

Based on historical results the only thing you can say with confidence is that the Cavs and Jazz are at least coin flips.

**Stifler's Mom** · 05-23-2007, 03:20 PM

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I wouldn't say it's a bad line, per say, because the Jazz do have to win and cover the 2 points (more than likely it will be -1 or a pickem by gametime if i figure on the public correctly), but I do think the line is in my favor, and not only did I think so before the line was released, but the oddsmakers seem to be confirming my thoughts by releasing the line they did.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

The way I think of it, "the public" doesn't really include someone like myself, who tends to think "outside the box", and go against the popular opinion 80-90% of the time (less in baseball and hockey for obvious reasons). I mean yes, everyone's bets are included in the public percentage, however, when there are 70-80% on one side, that is a strong public opinion towards that team, any way you slice it. Out of the other 20%, you got guys like myself who will fade the public opinion, and those who actually see thru the smoke and mirrors and realize the anti-public side is probably the correct one.

The way I look at it is like this....go down to the local corner bar or mens league at the local bowling center and ask them if they'd take SA -2 or Utah +2 in game 3. You'll have your public opinion, and I'm guessing at least 7 of 10 would take the Spurs at that line.....except I don't have to do that because sports insights tells me the percentages right from the comfort of my computer, lol.

In a case like this, assuming the public is at the very least split (i have no percentages yet, but I am going to guess there are going to be 65-70% minimum on the Spurs as a dog), and barring a huge line move in the Spurs favor, suggesting possible sharp opinion on the spurs along with the public (which is rare), I have to do no more than what I've already stated to come up with a play on Utah that will win far more often than it loses, based on the oddsmakers opinion alone.

IMHO if the oddsmakers felt the Spurs were the play, they would be favored instead of the Jazz. It's not like Utah +2 would draw an overload of public action, lol. Plus, the Jazz were in the neighborhood of +7 both games at SA. The public was all over the Spurs in game 1, although only slightly in game 2. Nevertheless, if a standard home court advantage is 3 points (which is it NOT, especially in a situation like this one), then you would have about Utah +4 here.

I mean I know that you know as well as I do that this in no way means the Jazz are guaranteed to win or cover, but with all these factors, it's going to be the winning side far more often than not....and often when it loses, it's because something "flukey" happens, rarely because the public side just comes out and kicks the crap out of the anti-public side. In no way do I expect the Spurs to come out and dominate game 3 start to finish and cover with ease.

Of course, none of this works if the side you expect to be favored, IS favored.....unless it's a side that looks like a blowout winner and they're only like -2. But what I'm saying, is that if the line looks pretty decent, yet there is still a public overload on the fave, the strong advantage of fading the public goes out the window, since there is only so much the oddsmakers can do to try and even out the action, and in some cases they're still going to get a public overload on one side, and those are the cases where they'll win some and lose some, but of course, they have the -110 juice in their favor, where we do not, plus an infinite bankroll, so they'll end up being fine.

**Underdog88** · 05-23-2007, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

I too use this way of thinking, more so in football than anywhere else, & I also look to find reasons as to why the line is set where it is. The Jazz are 6-0 at home in the playoffs (5-0-1 ats) The Jazz did win both meetings @ home in the regular season, once as 2 pt faves & once as 5 pt dogs. They are 4-2 su last 3 seasons at home vs the Spurs...not one of these games were blowouts. The Jazz wins were by 8, 4, 1 & 2pts. I know 3 years is going back too far to really put any stock into, just interesting to me.

IMO there will be sharps on either side of this game, but I could be wrong. I could sit here & list reasons why I think the Spurs are the play, then post a bunch more on why I think the Jazz are the play. Fact of the matter is I think it will likely be close, & the way the Spurs are playing I would rather not play against them. That being said I think the Jazz are the "smart" play too :hugegrin:

**Underdog88** · 05-24-2007, 09:27 AM

Thursday

Clev/Det u174.5

3 units

Cavs+1.5 1stq

1 unit

8 pt tease

Cavs+13
Clev/Det u182
Spurs+10
Sa/Utah u198

$200 to win $240

Saturday

Utah/Sa u190

8 units

Will also be on the Jazz 1stq when it becomes available- IMO they get the lead early & it becomes tight as the game goes on.....

I expect another defensive game tonight, no other team defends LeBron as well as Detroit, IMO. Prince is very effective defensively, & they were good at bringing help over game 1. Despite the 10 pts scored, IMO James had a solid game- 10 pts 10 rebs, 9 assists is nothing to shake a stick at, 0 fts is a cause for concern. IMO he will be looking to drive a bit more tonight, & I expect him to be in the post more as well. 174.5 is a tight number, but I really expect points to be at a premium tonight. Does anyone think either team will be looking to push the ball? I don't, so to me the only way this goes over is ot, or both teams shoot a high %. I'm gonna say Detroit wins 82-79. Couldn't bring myself to play the Cavs straight, as I think it will be very tough to pull a win out in Detroit, therefore 5.5 is a tossup to me. I will likely be on the Cavs for game 3 though...

Saturday's game is going to be interesting, IMO. They say the series doesn't start until a team gets the road win....well this is the whole series for Utah. If they drop game 3, I think they go down in 5. The Spurs are 2-1 su as dogs in the playoffs, winning su @ Phx twice. The Jazz are 6-0 at home in the playoffs, but this is the Spurs- not GS or Houston. Still, I do get the feeling the Jazz will pull out a close one- However, it's my opinion that the under provides the most value....

On the road, the Spurs tend to play lower scoring games... they buckle down, play tight defensively & wear teams down. Here are the playoff totals of the Spurs on the road this year...

Game 3 @ Den 187

Game 4 @ Den 185

Game 1 @ Phx 217

Game 2 @ Phx 182

Game 5 @ Phx 173

So in 5 games played on the road, we have 1 game were the total exceeded 187- and these were games vs uptempo teams looking to push the ball. Although Utah can get on the break, I would expect Sloan to want to establish Boozer in the paint early. Sloan knows that's the only way they win, & Boozer isn't getting as many easy cleanup buckets this series with Duncan & Co hitting the boards. He will have to work. Here are the totals to regular season games in which the Spurs were dogs...

@ Dallas.......176

@ Detroit......171

@ Phoenix.....190

@ Utah.........158

@ Dallas.......188

While I must stress that I don't put too much stock in regular season outcomes when it comes to the playoffs, in this case it may provide a glimpse into how the Spurs prefer road games to be played....That's all I got for now, will discuss as the game approaches :thumbs:

**Low** · 05-24-2007, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I wouldn't say it's a bad line, per say, because the Jazz do have to win and cover the 2 points (more than likely it will be -1 or a pickem by gametime if i figure on the public correctly), but I do think the line is in my favor, and not only did I think so before the line was released, but the oddsmakers seem to be confirming my thoughts by releasing the line they did.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

The way I think of it, "the public" doesn't really include someone like myself, who tends to think "outside the box", and go against the popular opinion 80-90% of the time (less in baseball and hockey for obvious reasons). I mean yes, everyone's bets are included in the public percentage, however, when there are 70-80% on one side, that is a strong public opinion towards that team, any way you slice it. Out of the other 20%, you got guys like myself who will fade the public opinion, and those who actually see thru the smoke and mirrors and realize the anti-public side is probably the correct one.

The way I look at it is like this....go down to the local corner bar or mens league at the local bowling center and ask them if they'd take SA -2 or Utah +2 in game 3. You'll have your public opinion, and I'm guessing at least 7 of 10 would take the Spurs at that line.....except I don't have to do that because sports insights tells me the percentages right from the comfort of my computer, lol.

In a case like this, assuming the public is at the very least split (i have no percentages yet, but I am going to guess there are going to be 65-70% minimum on the Spurs as a dog), and barring a huge line move in the Spurs favor, suggesting possible sharp opinion on the spurs along with the public (which is rare), I have to do no more than what I've already stated to come up with a play on Utah that will win far more often than it loses, based on the oddsmakers opinion alone.

IMHO if the oddsmakers felt the Spurs were the play, they would be favored instead of the Jazz. It's not like Utah +2 would draw an overload of public action, lol. Plus, the Jazz were in the neighborhood of +7 both games at SA. The public was all over the Spurs in game 1, although only slightly in game 2. Nevertheless, if a standard home court advantage is 3 points (which is it NOT, especially in a situation like this one), then you would have about Utah +4 here.

I mean I know that you know as well as I do that this in no way means the Jazz are guaranteed to win or cover, but with all these factors, it's going to be the winning side far more often than not....and often when it loses, it's because something "flukey" happens, rarely because the public side just comes out and kicks the crap out of the anti-public side. In no way do I expect the Spurs to come out and dominate game 3 start to finish and cover with ease.

Of course, none of this works if the side you expect to be favored, IS favored.....unless it's a side that looks like a blowout winner and they're only like -2. But what I'm saying, is that if the line looks pretty decent, yet there is still a public overload on the fave, the strong advantage of fading the public goes out the window, since there is only so much the oddsmakers can do to try and even out the action, and in some cases they're still going to get a public overload on one side, and those are the cases where they'll win some and lose some, but of course, they have the -110 juice in their favor, where we do not, plus an infinite bankroll, so they'll end up being fine.

I'd like to thank you guys for the whole thread.I found it very informative and have learned from it. Enjoyed reading the quote above by Stifler's Mom,and Underdog88's reason for betting the under on spurs. Goodluck on your wagers.

UDoggie's Conference Championships