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No Amare/no Diaw of course, but how will it affect the game? I would think Jones gets the start, with Barbosa still coming off the bench. Duncan will get his points (& would have with Amare in anyway).... I would think the Spurs will look to establish Duncan early & often (duh), but on the other side I would expect Nash/Barbosa & co. to really attack the basket. They know that in order to win, they have to try & get Duncan in foul trouble, in turn getting to the line. They are smarter than the Warriors & won't sit back & heave up 3 pointers... Honestly I haven't been very impressed with Barbosa this series, & he will definitely need to show up for the Suns to win.
Marion will also be taking many more of his ugly shots today. He hasn't been scoring much (outside of game 3) but is shooting over 50% for the series... I'm expecting 26 & 12 from him today, & I'm really contemplating Marion-3-150 over Ginobili. Also looking at Parker P&A +6.5+150 over Nash, more as a contrarian play... I expect the Suns to win, but I also expect this to turn into a faster paced, transition game. If it does Parker will be able to put some pts up. Sounds obvious to say the Spurs will slow it down & the Suns will speed it up, but without Amare posting up, the Suns will need to push the ball even more so. This looks like one of those, Suns/over, Spurs/under deals to me, hopefully I'm on the winning side.......
Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...
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