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This was intended to be an article pick but I couldn't make the morning submissions deadline so I'm using it here in the forum.
Toronto at San Antonio
When handicapping the various factors that go into deciding on what to bet, I'm a big believer in heavily weighing how teams performed in similar situations in the past.
This is especially relevant today as I try to factor in a team's performance based on whether they're in the postseason or not, and how much they care about winning on the last day of the season.
Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
So who's going to show up and play with some pride in their final game?
It was the same situation for them both last year, both eliminated, both playing meaningless games.
Toronto lost on the road at Miami, by 15 points, 118-103.
San Antonio was home facing Detroit and won by 28 points, 123-195.
That's two edges favoring a play on the Spurs today.
And then there's this:
WF2 says Toronto should be the Fav.
WF1 says the Spurs are the correct Fav and the differential between the numbers for each system qualifies this as an asterisk play.
NBA asterisk plays on the Rd is the only spot in any sport that has a winning record in this system (5-4.)
I'm going with the odds here and saying that at the end of the regular season there's a better chance that this spot will join all the others and NOT have a winning record.
I'm taking SA.
One additional reason for the pick - on the final day of the season last year WF2 was 0-4.
I'm looking for similar results today.
My play:
SA -5
NBA Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-8
Review: Got a win with the Pritchard prop.
Toronto at San Antonio
When handicapping the various factors that go into deciding on what to bet, I'm a big believer in heavily weighing how teams performed in similar situations in the past.
This is especially relevant today as I try to factor in a team's performance based on whether they're in the postseason or not, and how much they care about winning on the last day of the season.
Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
So who's going to show up and play with some pride in their final game?
It was the same situation for them both last year, both eliminated, both playing meaningless games.
Toronto lost on the road at Miami, by 15 points, 118-103.
San Antonio was home facing Detroit and won by 28 points, 123-195.
That's two edges favoring a play on the Spurs today.
And then there's this:
WF2 says Toronto should be the Fav.
WF1 says the Spurs are the correct Fav and the differential between the numbers for each system qualifies this as an asterisk play.
NBA asterisk plays on the Rd is the only spot in any sport that has a winning record in this system (5-4.)
I'm going with the odds here and saying that at the end of the regular season there's a better chance that this spot will join all the others and NOT have a winning record.
I'm taking SA.
One additional reason for the pick - on the final day of the season last year WF2 was 0-4.
I'm looking for similar results today.
My play:
SA -5
NBA Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-8
Review: Got a win with the Pritchard prop.