NBA Prop for Friday April 11th

[RBD]

Record: 8-8

Okay, somebody point out where my thinking is off on this one.
Just like last game, the Celtics are going to sit their starters.
This means extended minutes for Pritchard.
The books (including our sponsor Bovada) have set his total points scored at 13'. And at a Dog price.

When Pritchard has played for 30 or more minutes this year (like in their last game when they sat their starters) here are his monthly numbers for scoring 13 or >:
Nov 4-0
Dec 8-2
Jan 4-1
Feb 4-2
Mar 6-2
Apr 2-2

That's a combined 28-9.
So 75 percent of the time when he plays 30 plus minutes he's scoring more than 13 PPG.
And with starters out tonight he should get 30 minutes of court time.
What am I missing here?
I double checked the numbers, they look accurate.

When something looks too good to be true it's usually because it is.
But I'm biting on this one.

My Play:
Pritchard Ov 13' pts, +105

[RBD]

I found out what I was missing.
The sources I read that said the starters were sitting out tonight were WRONG!
Tatum, Horford, Porzingis, Holiday and White are ALL playing.

I'm going to need them pulled early and Pritchard to improve on his 1-7 from three point range in his last game.

And my article pick on the team total Over isn't looking good either, Boston's already 4-10 on FH's and 0-5 from three point range
Early obviously but not a good start.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record:9-8

Review: Pritchard doesn't get 30 minutes as expected if the starters had sat, he only played 22 minutes but that's exactly how many points he scored, 22, easily surpassing the 13' I needed.

With just one day left of play in the regular season last night's win puts me back on the plus side of the ledger.
Barely, but better than in the red.

Preparing for the postseason I was reviewing my notes from last year to see what worked and what didn't and I noticed something that interests me. On the final day of the regular season calculations for WF2 were way off. The play went 0-4, three Rd teams, one Hm team.
Two of them qualified as asterisk plays.

And my H/C (hot/cold) methodology for picking totals had three plays that qualified, all Unders, all losers that went Over.

That was then, this is now, a new year, new season.
But will I be hoping for a few more of those spots to qualify for tomorrow's (Sunday) games?
Hell yeah!

And so I'll be spending some time this morning doing what I love - relaxing, poolside, with a cup of green tea, and a bowl of strawberries, grapes, and orange slices, crunching numbers and hoping I get a few spots that I like for Sunday.
After a little dark period there, life is good again.
Hope you all have a great day and I'll see you tomorrow.