Tweet
Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-5
Review: Last time in, Tuesday 3/25, I took the Orlando game Over 212' hoping to get on a streak at the beginning instead of after it's already established.
They combined for 215.
Since then I haven't had another game that qualified for that model but I have something different for tonight.
My primary method for identifying WF's (games where the books made the wrong team the Favorite) is WF1. It has a record of 53-43. Profitable, but barely (and I'm okay with that, the first goal for me is always to not lose money, second goal is to grind out a small profit.)
But here's why I track, chart, and love subcategories - the subcategory breakdown of WF1 into Home /Road gives me a record of 11-17 on Hm teams, a 60% Fade, and 42-26, a 61% play ON when it's a Rd team.
And I have another subcategory where I break WF1 into point differentials, meaning that if the difference between the book's number on the team they think should be the Fav and the number for the team my model says should be the Fav is greater than X number of points I get a record of 17-7, 70%.
And that's what I have tonight.
I actually have two WF1 Rd spots, Dallas and Portland but only Portland qualifies for the point differential subcategory.
This line opened at Sac -5' and has gone up.
The WAN (Widely Available Number) right now is -6, and some of those have added extra juice which means it's still going in the direction I'd like it to go.
I'll wait to buy this hoping the extra juice turns into a hook.
As always, I'll post the number I get after I buy it.
My Play:
Port (wait to buy)
Update #1: Here are some additional stats on the game:
Portland is 19-16 ATS on the Rd.
Sacramento is 16-18-1 ATS at Hm.
Slight edge Portland.
Portland is 23-39 as a Dog.
Sacramento is 28-29 as a Fav.
Big edge Sacramento.
H2H:
Sacramento won the first meeting this season, at Hm, 111-98.
Portland won the next two, both on their home court, 115-106 and 108-102.
Recent play:
The Trail Blazers have lost two straight and six of their last 10.
The Kings have lost four in a row and six of their last 10.
Update#2: The higher juice has come off the -6 and I see a -5' on the board so I grabbed +6 while it's still readily available.
Record: 8-5
Review: Last time in, Tuesday 3/25, I took the Orlando game Over 212' hoping to get on a streak at the beginning instead of after it's already established.
They combined for 215.
Since then I haven't had another game that qualified for that model but I have something different for tonight.
My primary method for identifying WF's (games where the books made the wrong team the Favorite) is WF1. It has a record of 53-43. Profitable, but barely (and I'm okay with that, the first goal for me is always to not lose money, second goal is to grind out a small profit.)
But here's why I track, chart, and love subcategories - the subcategory breakdown of WF1 into Home /Road gives me a record of 11-17 on Hm teams, a 60% Fade, and 42-26, a 61% play ON when it's a Rd team.
And I have another subcategory where I break WF1 into point differentials, meaning that if the difference between the book's number on the team they think should be the Fav and the number for the team my model says should be the Fav is greater than X number of points I get a record of 17-7, 70%.
And that's what I have tonight.
I actually have two WF1 Rd spots, Dallas and Portland but only Portland qualifies for the point differential subcategory.
This line opened at Sac -5' and has gone up.
The WAN (Widely Available Number) right now is -6, and some of those have added extra juice which means it's still going in the direction I'd like it to go.
I'll wait to buy this hoping the extra juice turns into a hook.
As always, I'll post the number I get after I buy it.
My Play:
Port (wait to buy)
Update #1: Here are some additional stats on the game:
Portland is 19-16 ATS on the Rd.
Sacramento is 16-18-1 ATS at Hm.
Slight edge Portland.
Portland is 23-39 as a Dog.
Sacramento is 28-29 as a Fav.
Big edge Sacramento.
H2H:
Sacramento won the first meeting this season, at Hm, 111-98.
Portland won the next two, both on their home court, 115-106 and 108-102.
Recent play:
The Trail Blazers have lost two straight and six of their last 10.
The Kings have lost four in a row and six of their last 10.
Update#2: The higher juice has come off the -6 and I see a -5' on the board so I grabbed +6 while it's still readily available.