NBA play today March 25

[RBD]

Record: 7-5
Review:
Recap: I stayed off the Clippers in my last post on March 12th.
Shared the play and the numbers for it in case anyone was looking for an angle on the game.
It was a mistake laying off as they won SU by 15 as two point dogs.

Today I was crunching some numbers on one of my models for choosing totals to buy when I saw a recent data sample gives this game a 62% chance of going Over 212'.

Small size data sample, 2025 games only, 8 spots but looking to see if I can jump on a trend before it gets established.

Buying/posting now because the line is going up.
I'll stop back in with an update on record and some stats on this game.

My Play:
Orl/Char Ov 212'

[RBD]

Upate: Did some digging into stats for this game.
Orlando played last night.
When playing in the second game of back to back their record for the Over is 4-7. That's not helping my case tonight.

Orlando on the road, record for the Over is 15-21.
Ugly.

Charlotte at home, record for the Over is 11-25.
More ugliness.

Instead of grabbing the line early because it was going up, maybe I should have done some of this stat work first??!!

Maybe I can find some solace in their head to head meetings this season?
They've played three times.
Combined scores: 203, 179, 199.
NONE of them are Over tonight's total.
Game by game they're Under tonight's number of 212' by 10 points, 34 points, and 14 points.

It seems the ugliness on this pick is never ending.

But, I've already bought it, it's in my pocket, so I'll just have to hope for this truism to come into play on this one:
"Sports bettors bet on games that look good to them. Most bettors lose. So shouldn't they be betting on plays that don't look good?"

I certainly am tonight.


Update #2: Dig deep enough and you can find stats to support either side in a game, or the Over or Under.

To counteract the bleakness detailed above there's this:
Four of Orlando's last five games have gone Over tonight's total.
The only one that missed stayed Under by 1'pts.

Seven of their last 10 have gone Over tonight's number.

And seven of Charlotte's last 10 have also gone Over 212'.

Maybe the pick's not so bad after all?