NBA 2024/25

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  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 102

    NBA 2024/25

    What - it's the first day of the NBA season and you thought I wouldn't have action?
    Hardly.
    Especially since I have a system in play.

    For the NBA this season I'm charting two methods for sides and three for totals.
    For charting/posting purposes I'll refer to the sides as WF1, WF2, and the Totals as T1, T2, and T3 .

    It will take a few weeks to collect data and see where I can find value so, admittedly, today's pick is more of a risk than normal plays, but like I said, it's opening day, so . . .

    I have conflicting systems tonight. T1 says take the LAL game Under, T3 says take it Over.
    So, with no games played yet and no data accumulated on any of these methods, how do I choose which way to go tonight?
    History.
    One of the benefits of having years of data accumulated on my methods is I can look back at charts from past seasons and see what usually works and what doesn't.
    The only drawback is that what works one year may/may not work the next year(s).
    But with years of data across all sports I have a general idea of which methods usually work better than others.
    And T3 has a history of not doing well on Overs.
    Which points me towards . . .

    Min/LAL Un

    Not much relevance, but I wondered if teams started slow or fast out of the gates last opening day. Like this year, two games on day one, both stayed Un.
    LAL were one of the 4 teams playing.
    Day 2, 6-6 Ov/Un (Min game stayed Un.)
    Like I said, not much relevance but there's the #'s in case anyone was wondering.

    When to buy recommendation:
    Baskets are much more difficult to predict line movements than football, the lines are more volatile.
    This one opened at 224, dropped to 220, and is now rising again. The current common # is 221 (221' at our sponsor Bookmaker.)
    I expect late $ from Joe Public to keep it rising (Joe LOVES Favs and Overs) so I'll wait to buy this one, hoping it continues to go up.
    I'll post the# I get when I buy it.

    Good luck to all of you this NBA season!

    Update #1: 222/223 now showing up, waiting was the correct move. Still waiting, thinking it gets back t the opening, will add an update when I buy.

    Update/Buy Notice: Still one or two 223 out there but the WAN is 222' so that's what I'll use here. Buying now as some 222' are starting to show extra juice on the Un.

    Min/LAL Un 222', -110
    Last edited by RBD; 10-22-2024, 05:14 PM.
  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 102

    #2
    Recap: 1-0
    Record: 1-0

    Review: Banked a W with my first play of the season, Min/LAL Un 222; total pts scored 213.

    Just finished 'capping and I have ELEVEN spots to choose from today.
    That's too many, especially when considering that college b-ball is about to begin with it's HUGE slate of games each day.
    I need to refine the parameters required to qualify or my daily 'cap is going to eat up 3-4 hours of my day.

    On the goods news side I have this - I found a small sample of asterisk plays charted at the end of NBA last season.
    Refresher:
    "When WF2 says the wrong team is favored and, WF1 says the correct team is the Fav, and WF1's point spread differential is a TD or more than WF2’s, take the WF1 team."
    (the differential is 5 pts or > for baskets)

    Updated records::
    WNBA: 2-6, 75% Fade (corrected from 3-6)
    College football: 5-9, 64% Fade
    NFL: 0-8, 100% Fade

    That's a combined 7-23, a 76% Fade and a 30 game sample!!!

    I mentioned in a recent home page column that I was eager to see if it works in the NBA, too.
    As the NBA new year begins I went to review last year's NBA charts and notes to see what I should keep in mind for this season.
    And I saw a note, a reminder to add to my charts a play I discovered in the final weeks of the season. It was marked with an *

    I forgot all about it (which is why I recommend taking notes each season and reviewing them at the start of the next season.)
    It first showed up on March 19, 2024 and I only see 10 games recorded in my log book. The record: 3-7, a 70% Fade.
    As I always remind myself - "What works one season may not work the next season."
    But there's only one way to find out.
    Three plays qualified today. I used two for picks in my hm pg article today, the other I'm using here.
    WF2 says Detroit should be the Fav. WF2 says Indiana is the correct Fav, and the Pacers also fit the other parameter required to make them the play.

    Ind -5

    GOOD LUCK with your play today!
    Last edited by RBD; 10-23-2024, 05:06 PM.

    Comment

    • RBD
      Predictem Feature Writer
      • Aug 2024
      • 102

      #3
      Recap: 1-0
      Record: 2-0
      Review: Banked a W with Indy on the asterisk play.

      Last night Brooklyn qualified as the Fade team in the asterisk spot and I didn't buy the game because I didn't want to lay 11' pts with Orlando.
      They won by 15.

      As I always say, I hate jumping on a play that I stayed off of the night before and it won, but how can I not keep buying this play with the stupid name when it keeps winning across all sports?
      It's a 1-3 Fade already in the NBA.

      Tonight one game qualifies.
      WF2 says Washington should be the Fav.
      WF1 says Cleveland is the correct Fav AND the WF number is five points > than the books number.

      Today's play:
      Cle -9'
      ​​​​

      ​​
      Last edited by RBD; 10-26-2024, 10:06 AM.

      Comment

      • RBD
        Predictem Feature Writer
        • Aug 2024
        • 102

        #4
        Recap: 1-0
        Record: 3-0

        Review: I used the * play yesterday, Cle -9'.
        The Cavs won all four quarters and won the game by 19.
        That play is now 1-4 in the NBA, a solid Fade just like in every other sport. (It went 1-0 in the NFL this week, 0-2 in college football, so with the NBA now added it was a combined 2-6, a 75% Fade, all sports.)

        One play fits today, I'm posting it for info purposes only in case anyone is looking for an angle on the game.

        Wf2 says Atlanta should be the Fav today.
        WF1 says OKC is the correct Fav AND the WF1 number is five points > than the books number.
        Asterisk play says Fade the Hawks and take the Thunder.


        I work in weekly windows, meaning I do my accounting on a week that starts on Monday and ends on Sunday, with the goal always being to finish with a profit for the week.
        ANY profit.

        Because I went against one of my long-standing superstitions yesterday (betting on a play that I didn't use the day before and it won), and got the win with Cle, I'm not going to push my luck today. I'll lock up the 3-0 opening week of NBA here in the forum (1-1 on homepage picks) bank a few units, and be more than happy to do so.

        Good luck with your play today.
        Last edited by RBD; 10-27-2024, 09:18 AM.

        Comment

        • RBD
          Predictem Feature Writer
          • Aug 2024
          • 102

          #5
          Record: 3-0

          From my last post, Atl loses in the * spot.
          I laid off it (having won the play before it, I got conservative.)
          The * spot is 1-5 in the (83% Fade now) hope somebody saw the post and took OKC.

          All sports *:
          WNBA: 2-6, 75% Fade
          College football: 5-11, 68% Fade
          NFL: 1-8, 88% Fade
          NBA: 1-5, 83% Fade
          Combined: 9-30, 77% Fade

          Those scales have to start balancing out, reversion toward the mean is inevitable. But when?

          One spot today, for info purposes/record keeping only, I may buy it later, watching the line for now.
          If I buy it I'll post it.
          Memphis is in the Fade spot. Mil is the play ON team, -6' right now, I think it will drop, watching and waiting.

          Comment

          • RBD
            Predictem Feature Writer
            • Aug 2024
            • 102

            #6
            I didn't take the Memphis Fade, good move, they won. Makes up for not playing the Atl Fade the night before.

            Also - record correction. Two plays fit * spot today so I thought I'd take a minute to check the record of a subcategory based on Hm/Rd.
            While doing so I spotted an error, an extra loss on it, so I corrected my log from 1-5 to 1-4; with last night's Mem game added it's now 2-4, 67%.
            And here's the Hm/Rd breakdown, Hm 1-2 , Rd 1-2.
            The two Fade spots tonight are Atl and NO. The plays would be Sac -6 and Ind -4'.
            I see it as a split, no buy, posted for info purposes/record tracking only.

            Good luck with your play today.

            Comment

            • RBD
              Predictem Feature Writer
              • Aug 2024
              • 102

              #7
              Test

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