WNBA stuff!

[RBD]

Check out my column coming out tomorrow, Thursday, 8/15.

I'll be sharing a play that's 10-3 this year. That's 77%!!!
Well, kind of sharing a play. I'll give you some clues, but you're going to have to puzzle it out for yourself to get the teams and the type of bet.
Join me for a little fun, see you tomorrow.

[RBD]

A pick for today, but first some general info.

Forum picks will have a separate record from the ones I use in my Battling the Books column. I'll have more plays here than in the published articles and I'll have my money on every one of them.

There won't be long write-ups, no deep analysis. There's not enough time, especially for second half plays which I hope to do regularly throughout the football season.

I had no plays strong enough for my homepage column today but after not having any WNBA action for almost a month now I gotta have something tonight, right?

I don't have any of my systems in action tonight so I looked for a player prop, which I've had pretty good success with during the first half of the season.
Tonight, I like Natasha Cloud to go over 11' points.

My reasoning may be a little wonky, meaning I'm not sure of its degree of relevance but here's how I see it.
The Phoenix Mercury have three players who were on the Olympic squad and did not have the rest afforded to the rest of their players.
I'm hoping this translates into a minimum of 35+ minutes of court time and an above average compliment of plays called for Natasha in this one.

The book set the number at 11'.

She averages 12.4 PPG.

She's surpassed tonight's number in seven of her last 10 games.

In two of the three games she fell short of 11' she landed on 11, a hook shy of what I need tonight.

So 7 of 10 were > tonight's number, two of them missed by a hook, and in the third she scored 10, just 1' < I need tonight.
And that was against Connecticut, easily the best defensive squad in the league, surrendering just 72.9 per game.

I like my numbers tonight!

Our sponsor Bovada has a small price on the 11' at -115.
And I'm all over it.

Looking for a little beginners luck in my first PredictEm ForumLand pick.

Natasha Cloud Ov 11', -115

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 0-1, -$115

Review: Natasha Cloud played her worst game of the year. Midway through the second quarter she'd only taken one shot the entire game. I thought that was bad, but then she started shooting and my bet got even worse.
She ended up 1-7.
She played so poorly that the coach yanked her and she got less than her average minutes per game.

I might use her in a bounce back performance tonight.
She's averaging 12.4 game, and most of the numbers that I used for yesterday's play are still a factor, with a change that she's now hit at least 11 points in six of her last ten instead of the seven of her last ten that she had going into yesterday's play.

The books have dropped her number one point, but added juice. Tonight it's 10', -135.

I posted two picks to my column today.

Indiana -2'
The Caitlin's have already beaten the Mercury twice this season by six points and by nine points and are going for this season sweep tonight. They catch Phoenix coming off a game last night so hopefully we'll get some tired legs from the Mercury in the second half.

Connecticut -5'
This is one of my WF spots (Wrong Fav.) It says Connecticut is the WF, Dallas should be the Fav. With a record of 2-5 for home teams in this spot this is a Fade for me.

I didn't have much luck using Connecticut in the first half of the season. The Sun were responsible for almost 40% of my losses on the entire year!
Add my play on Minnesota and the two teams combined for almost 70% of my losses last time I checked on July 10th.
Hoping I have better luck with them in the second half.

Update: The book must have got hammered on that 10' for Natasha Cloud tonight. It's now at 11' Ov -111.
So let's look at three things: games following a poor performance, how she did the last time Phoenix played back to back nights come and how she did against tonight's opponent the Fever.

In the previous to games with she scored 15 and 0, she did not play in the second game.

They played in B2B's once this season back to back road games just like tonight's sequence, and then the second game she scored 21.

I'm giving her a chance for redemption.

Plays:
Indy -3 (was at 2' as noted above but now at -3)
Con -5'
Natasha Cloud Ov 11', -111

Oh yeah, almost forgot the number for the other game I have tonight, the puzzle pick, is Ov 173'.

Good luck with your play tonight...

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1, -$15

Yes, I hit all four picks yesterday, but the three picks from my columns don't count here.
That would be double dipping.
Separate record keeping for the forum.

Lone pick I used here that I didn't use in my columns was Natasha Cloud over 11', giving her a chance at redemption in a bounce back spot from the lousy game she had the night before. And she rewarded me by scoring 16.

Just a heads up to buy these two as soon as the lines go up because they are likely to go higher.
Same same play I used with Phoenix/Indy Friday night.
I double checked my numbers and I have this spot at 13-3 to the Over, 81%.

LA/LV is in a rare spot where both teams are in the B2B spot.
the record on these is 2-0 to the Over this year.
Depending on the number they put out, I might put a little extra on this one.


Sunday plays:
Chi/Phx Ov
LA/LV Ov

[RBD]

I got 167' on the LA/LV game and 166 on Chicago/Phoenix.
Still still trying to decide whether to use one (and if so, which) or both for tomorrow's article.

I also did a little handicapping work today. I wanted to see the ATS record of the teams playing the second day in a row. Thought I might catch a good Fade stat but they're
9-7. If I get a chance in the morning I'll do a breakdown of Hm and Rd records, see if there are any edges there with value.

[RBD]

Buying early, and sharing here in case anyone was looking at this game, was definitely the right move.
LA/LV is up from 167' to 171'. The Chicago games at 166'.

In addition to those two plays I have a few other systems in action today. On Saturday I used Connecticut because it was in one of my Wrong Fav handicapping spots, WF1.
It was 2-5, now it's 2-6, remaining good Fade material.
And I have a play that fits today: Seattle at Indiana.

WF1 and WF2 both say Indy should be favored. (WF2 is 11-13 overall but 4-4 on home teams like Indy today; no edge.)

This is the third time this season that both systems call for the same WF. The record is 1-1, no edge there.

Indiana is 2-2 in WF1 and 1-0 in WF2.
When Seattle is the favorite in these spots they are 3-2 in WF1 and 2-0 in WF2 for a combined 5-2.

My brains flip flopping on this one, can't choose a side.
But it's a nationally televised game so I want action on it.
I'll look for some more angles and stop back later with a pick.

Chicago is also a WF2 play today.
Home teams in this spot are 7-9.

Sunday plays: Chi/Phx Ov 167'
LA/LV Ov 166

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2 Record:
1-3, -$235

Review: Went back to a play that was 13-3 to the Over, 81% for two plays last time in here.
Got bitch slapped by reversion toward the mean.
That play is now 13-5.

And it's active tonight in the Indiana/Minnesota game because Minnesota played last night.

This is their second time in back-to-back games this season and in the previous spot the second game went Over.

I was going to use it as a play here in the forum but the line has jumped three points since earlier today and I can't recommend a line that's three points worse than what was available this morning. Especially since it's lost two straight.

I do have a column play today. I posted it on the home page.
In it, I recommended waiting to buy the line that opened at -5' and was down to 4' this morning.
Waiting was the right move as it's at -4 right now.
My reasons and stats for buying it are in the homepage column.

Min -4

[RBD]

Recap: Minnesota play mentioned above won but it was a play from my Predictem homepage column so I don't count it on my forum record.

Record: 1-3, -$235

One play today.
New York's Ionescu is off a poor performance in our last game and I'm betting she bounces back tonight.
If if I'm right it's not going to help my homepage call from today but I like the number
Ionescu Ov 19' points -115

[RBD]

Record: 1-4, -$350

Finished with a really great August for homepage picks.
Hit both college football picks in the forum yesterday.
Only thing not working for me these days is forum picks on the WNBA. Haven't posted one here in a couple days, trying to be selective. I have one today, Sea/Con Ov 155'.

I I have a match today, both of the systems I use to identify candidates for an Over agree on this one.
First time this has happened all year I believe (I'll double check my logbook and update if I'm wrong.)
The record on the first system is 5-2, the record on the second system is 6-2

Also, Connecticut played yesterday and though I don't have the updated record in front of me I'm pretty sure that games with teams who played the night before are going Over at a rate of about 67%. I'll update that record here too when I get a chance.

Today's play:
Sea/Con Ov 155'

Edited for an Update: I just checked my log book for the record on the Over in game two of B2B's. I have it at 16-7, 69%.
When Connecticut is in game two of B2B's the record on the Over is 2-1.

And I was correct above, this is the first timers both of my handicapping methods for totals has called for an Over on the same game.

[RBD]

Record: 2-4, -$250
Got back a unit with the Sea/Con game Over

Tonight - two of the four different formulas I use to identify totals to buy say that the Wash/Dal game tonight stays Under.
One is a play that rarely pops up in the WNBA and has a record of 1-1.
The other is 13-7, I used it in my home age article for a W on 8/28 with Ind/Con.
The one with a record of 1-1 has a long history of doing well on Unders across all sports so I'm hoping tonight's game gets the play heading back into it's normal W% territory.

These two have met twice this season, and the games landed on 166 and then 176.
In the second game they were playing in back to back nights, and the game went Over by 13 points.
I've mentioned that spot (game two of back to back nights) in previous posts.
B2B's are common in the NBA but rare in the W, and the ladies (?) don't seem to be able to play good D in game twos.
The current record is 16-7, 69% for the Over.
There is one spot left for this scenario this season in case you want to mark your calendar.
It's not a definite play but worth taking a look at for a possible Over, depending on other factors.

The current number on tonight's game is 174'.
That's 8 points more than their first meeting, and just 2 points fewer than their second, but that second meeting was game two of back to back, which, as noted, tend to have higher scores. Both teams are rested tonight.

The main concern here is the Dallas defense. They're lifting their skirts for a league worst 90.7 per game.
Countering that ugly stat for playing the Under in this one is the fact that Wash only scores a near-the-bottom of the league avg of 79 per game.

The game opened 170', is up to 174' right now, and I see 175 starting to show up.
It's moving in the right direction for playing the Under, no hurry, monitor your screen(s) and wait to buy it.
But don't wait until too close to tip off in case guys who took the opening number Over do a buy back to try for a middle.
I'll drop in later with the number I get, if I get busy and can't I'll use the common number available at most books.

Wash/Dal Un (wait to buy)

GOOD LUCK to all on your plays tonight.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-5, -$360

Lost last play, Wash/Dal went Ov by a basket.

Have two today. Missed out on better #'s for both games; have to buy and post earlier in the day.

Dal/Atl Ov 169' (6-3 record on this play, 67%; subset record 2-0)
Chi/LA Ov 164' (5-2 record)

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 4-5, -$160

Review: Banged both totals last time in to knock a hefty chunk off the deficit. Only a few days left in the regular season. I have enough of a profit from my homepage picks to guarantee to end the season with a prophet on my bankroll, got a little bit of work to do on the forum bank balance to get it back in black between now and the playoffs.

In yesterday's column I posted a play on an Over with a "Wait to Buy" notice. It was the right move as the game was 164' yesterday and is down to 162/162' this morning. I was counting on another Under from LA last night to help drop this number a little bit and they cooperated, managing only 66 points against the best defense in the league the Connecticut Sun.
Total was 159, they combined for 152.

Best prices on tonight's play are at our sponsors Bovada and Bookmaker.
Bovada is offering 162' at reduced odds of -105, Bookmaker has it at 162, -111.

For an extra penny off the standard odds of -110 you can get rid of the hook. In this play every point is going to matter so I'll take the Bookmaker line at 162.

The 162 is harder to find and normally I use lines that are readily available to the betting public, but it's football season and there's no excuse for having only one or two outs to play at. If you want to maximize your chances at beating the books you need to maximize the number of odds you have access to.

I'm off to handicap the rest of today's WNBA card.
If I have any additional plays I'll post them here in the forum.

Good luck with your play today.

Update: I finished 'capping the rest of the card.
Good news/bad news.
Good news - I have multiple plays that say take the Clarks in the must see WNBA game of the night, the Caitlans vs LY's Champs, LV at Ind.
Bad news - one system has a slight advantage that says PLAY ON, the the other has a slight advantage that says Fade. So, it's a wash.

In additional good news, my H/C (Hot/Cold) system has a 6-2 record on Overs and tonight it has . . . Sea/LA, same as my home page pick.
So as Spackler would say, "I got that going for me."

No additional picks for today, at one game under .500 I'll be very selective while searching for my next play.

[RBD]

Record: 4-5, -$160

Okay, got the deficit down to one game under .500 and some juice. Got 3 days left in the reg season and the playoffs to get back in black.
No recap or review today, no posted plays last time in.
I talked about the Ov in Sea/LA game, it won but I don't count it here as it was a home page play, I keep separate records for here and my home page articles.

Today I have a few forum picks.

LV -? (wait to buy) at the Kaitlins.
The Aces just beat 'em two days ago and a lot of bettors think this is a good spot for Ind to get revenge.
But . . . REVENGE is NOT a reason to bet!!! (see my 9/13 NFL article for more on this subject.)

This game opened at -5, dropped to -4', then -4. I see a few -3' out there now so no sense buying while the line is moving in my favor.
REMEMBER - the Caitlins are the darlings of the world, and with the revenge factor being bandied about by bettors late money is sure to come Indy's way.
Might get to -3 before Joe Public is done putting his cash down on this one.

If revenge is not a reason to bet what IS a reason to bet?
This: WF2 says LV is a WF; WF1 says LV is the correct Fav and has a line differential of > 5 pts than LV2's # (I use 7 in football, 5 in baskets.)
This is one of my favorite plays, with a record of 2-6 for LV2 in this spot. A 75% Fade.

Atl/Wash Ov 155
This is from my Hot/Cold method for 'capping totals, the Pendulum Play, looking for the pendulum to swing back the other way in a reversal of recent trends, rather than jumping on them as most bettors do.
This is the same system (I hate that word) I used on the Chi/LA game last time I gave picks here. The record for this play is 12-3 overall and 7-2 on Overs.

Update: Use 4' for LV.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 4-7, -$380

Review: Posted a "wait to buy" on LV when the game was at -4/-3'.
Forgot to get back in with the # I bought, -4. By the time I posted before tip off the common # was -4' so in fairness that's what I used here. Took an L instead of a Push.
Only today and Thursday left in the reg season. I won't buy any games regardless of what my #'s tell me because of the added 'capping factor of who is resting players getting ready for the playoffs, and which teams are quitting on the season.
So I enter the post season 3 games under .500.
Had a nice profit on home page picks so I have + bankroll to use for the post season. And if I get the right odds I may go all in on a certain round one playoff match.
I'll have an article up tomorrow with my post season picks.