Wednesday 4-5 Pick

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  • recovering77
    Public Fader
    • Mar 2007
    • 464

    Wednesday 4-5 Pick

    I never post in the NBA forum, but I just had to throw my opinion out on one particular game. We know this is the last 3 games of the season, so it can be an S show with 19 pt favorites losing outright, and I could be completely off base here. I think I went 0-3 last night, so take this with a grain of salt.

    So last night I wanted to add a pick into a parlay that was today, and I just blindly took the Pacers at +8.5. It went to +9, then has all of a sudden dropped to 4.5 today.


    So apparently the Knicks are locked into their playoff seed, and Indiana has already been eliminated from the playoffs. So neither team has much to play for. If that is the case, how are the Knicks still giving that many points on the road? The Knicks are obviously the better team, but are they that much better to be favored that much in a meaningless game on the road? Not in my opinion. We're talking about a 46 win team vs. a 34 win team.


    Knicks -4.5, but I will lock in closer to game time. Line could go down more from here as I'm seeing Indiana as a relatively popular pick. I don't see the Knicks line going up.
    Last edited by recovering77; 04-05-2023, 03:18 PM.
    2023
    39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
    Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

    2022
    43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
    Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

    2021
    36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

    2020
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2019
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
  • recovering77
    Public Fader
    • Mar 2007
    • 464

    #2
    Adding another thought.

    Lebron James is listed as doubtful tonight, yet the Clippers are only -3? I know they share the same building, so technically it's not a road game. And the Clippers have won the last 5 meetings, and all by 3 or more.

    That's interesting. But I made a rule last season that I would never bet on the Lakers again with Lebron on that team. They've caused me so much pain, I'll probably have to pass. I like the Knicks more anyways.
    2023
    39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
    Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

    2022
    43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
    Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

    2021
    36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

    2020
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2019
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

    Comment

    • recovering77
      Public Fader
      • Mar 2007
      • 464

      #3
      Maybe I shouldn't have written anything tonight lol. I think Knicks are down to -3.5 at some places, without Brunson and Randle.

      Also kinda liking the Celtics tonight. May go that route instead.
      2023
      39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
      Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

      2022
      43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
      Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

      2021
      36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

      2020
      18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

      2019
      15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

      Comment

      • recovering77
        Public Fader
        • Mar 2007
        • 464

        #4
        Celtics went to +1 late. I don't like that the Celtics covered cuz of the late line movement last night, so I pass on that. Sticking with the plan and taking the Knicks. Line is -5 right now and I'm putting it in now. GL
        2023
        39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
        Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

        2022
        43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
        Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

        2021
        36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

        2020
        18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

        2019
        15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

        Comment

        • recovering77
          Public Fader
          • Mar 2007
          • 464

          #5
          Just wanted to rant about how sick basketball is sometimes. Knicks were up 12 with 26 seconds in the third and somehow indiana outscored them by 5 in that timeframe.

          Also last night Philly was up 7 with 9 seconds left on a -2.5 line and didn’t cover. Layup and the foul, a missed free throw rebound and 3, and with 2 seconds left embiid turned the ball over preventing the free throws. I thought these were professionals.
          2023
          39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
          Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

          2022
          43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
          Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

          2021
          36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

          2020
          18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

          2019
          15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

          Comment

          • recovering77
            Public Fader
            • Mar 2007
            • 464

            #6
            And Indiana with a 14-1 run in 2 mins and 27 seconds since the third quarter. How does a team score 14 pts in 2 mins?
            2023
            39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
            Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

            2022
            43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
            Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

            2021
            36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

            2020
            18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

            2019
            15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

            Comment

            • Kevin
              Red Hot and Rollin'
              • Feb 2007
              • 11676

              #7
              The NBA will break your heart some days. Sick stuff happens!

              As far as 14 points in 2 mins, I've seen Reggie Miller score 8 points in a few seconds and I once saw like 25 or 27 points scored in 2 mins. Nutty chit happens!

              Comment

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