Pistons Series Price vs Chicago

[rjp]

YTD: 53-38 (+9.27 units)

DET series price vs CHI (-300) 2.82 to win 0.94

True odds for this are ~80%.

[rjp]

CLE Series Price vs NJN (-350) 1.52 to win 0.43

Not as much value as the DET price, but there is some.

[rjp]

More:

UTA Series Price vs GSW (-185) 5.86 to win3.17
CLE Series Price vs NJN (-325) 2.42 to win 0.74
DET Series Price vs CHI (-700) 1.50 to win 0.21

This makes for a total of 4.32 to win 1.15 on Detroit to beat Chicago, and 3.94 to win 1.17 on Cleveland to beat New Jersey.

[rjp]

Oh, and in case you're wondering about the bet sizes, I've moved to using a half kelly criterion.

[DarkSyde]

rjp,

I got in on a little bit of that Det/Chi series winner bet a few nights ago (before game 2). :beerbang:

BOL mang :glass:

[rjp]

Hope we see a Cavs/Pistons conference finals. :gulp:


CLE Series Price vs NJN (-615) 1.32 to win 0.21

[rjp]

Price keeps getting better.

CLE Series Price vs NJN (-500) 2.14 to win 0.43

This makes a total of 7.40 to win 1.81.

[homedawg]

GL RJP...:beerbang:

[rjp]

UTA Series Price vs GSW (-320) 1.57 to win 0.49

[rjp]

All are up 3-1... time to close these bums out so I can start betting real money again.

:gulp:

[Underdog88]

RJP- what are the true odds of Jazz to win now? Asking as I played GS +290 hoping to buy out after game 4 (I obviously was wrong about them taking both home games) for a little profit..... Now I'm stuck with the play & was thinking about $1900 to win $200, & eating the 1 unit loss.....thoughts?

[rjp]

UD, using a 99.99% confidence with historical series results, the Jazz probability of winning the series is 88.40%. This is the most confident answer, and at -1000 you've got a -EV bet with the Jazz. That said, a 99% confidence interval puts a bet at -1000 right at break even or slightly +EV, if I recall correctly.

[ENTREPRENEUR PIMP]

GSW can definately win at home and have shown the capacity to win Utah on the road in the first two games, with a bit of luck on their hands this can go towards GSW 4-3. Obviously this event happening is unlikely, but IMHO not worth the risk of 2K. BOL nonetheless.

[Stifler's Mom]

I wouldn't risk it either. GS is outmatched, and had they not shot the lights out in 1H game 3, they would have probably been swept IMO.....but I still wouldn't risk nearly 2 grand to win $200 on anything. To me, it makes more sense to eat the probable loss as you would with any other play that was likely to lose, and move on.

But with that being said, you certainly know what's best for you better than I do.....just throwing my opinion out there.

[Underdog88]

Yeah Stif.... I decided it's better to eat the 3 unit loss on this one. I'm just a little bitter because I thought the Jazz would win the series from the beginning, but that GS would win the first 2 at home.... I'm likely not going to play a side in that game tonight, but will root for the Warriors. If they happen to win (not too confident they do), I will be able to hedge out, but I really don't want to tie up that much just to buy back a play....Thanks for your opinion Stif & RJP for the reply :toast: