Value Plays for Thurs. Feb 4th

[MrDecipher]

Record 23-9 (+13.1 units)

Only two games on the board today , pickings may be slim . I'm not going to force anything today still have to wait to see the opening lines . If I'm not mistaking , tnt games have a tendency to go home team and under and thats just based on memory , no database stats or anything of the sort.
The heat had a decent outing yesterday vs the Celtics and good news for them Beasley is back playing. The Cavs are unbelievable at home though, I think a fair line here would be Cavs -8.
Still no real news on Roy's return for the Blazers I'm hearing it "might be today" " might be saturday vs Lakers" Its amazing how well the blazers have played with so many injuries. The spurs on the other hand have been giving up a ton of points , lost at home to the nuggets without Melo and had trouble putting the kings away last night.
I think a fair line here is Portland -3½.
Lets see what the boys send out..

[Underdog88]

I'm waiting too..... would think Cavs-8.5 or 9 may seem high but could be fair. Heat results on front and back end of b2b roadies this season....


lost @Denver 114-96
lost @Lal 108-107


lost @NO 95-91
lost @ SAS 108-78


lost @LAC 94-84
lost @Utah 118-89


won @Hous 115-106
lost @OKc 98-80


won @ Det 92-65
lost @Mil 95-84



0-5 on backends with just one loss coming by less than double digits.....

[MrDecipher]

I'm lining up to take the Blazers , they sent out Spurs -1½. I'm going to wait a little because I think the spurs are going to get bet up to -2 or -2½. lets see.

[Underdog88]

seeing -9.5 for Cavs on the open.

[MrDecipher]

Underdog , thats a nice stat to look at IMO , seems like the Heat get crushed in those situatoins, lol . the line came Cavs -9½ . "MAYBE" I'd take a +10 but if I don't feel it I'll pass cause I certainly will not lay those big favorites.
However the Heat seem to play well in games vs real contenders in their conference , we'll see this game may be a pass for me . Maybe I wait for halftime to see how the game is going. I'm alrady decided to play the Blazers though , just waiting for a better line which I think I'll get .

[Underdog88]

Fwiw I was just posting the numbers to show why I thought the line may come out higher (and in turn look inflated), not to endorse a play on Cleveland. It does make me think twice about backing the Heat, that's for sure. Agree on the Blazers, Spurs are a .500 road team on a b2b and they're favored IMO because of public perception. Still looking into it, and I agree there could be a better line later. GL today :thumbs:

[MrDecipher]

Tanks . This Heat game is going to be interesting . Don't want to play furtune teller here but I can see Miami keeping it close in the first half and then maybe Cleveland pull away in the second , maybe fatigue sets in for Miami becaise of the back to back on the road.
Is that the trend you saw in the above listed B2B heat series ?

[MrDecipher]

Just saw that Tony Parker is upgraded to "probable to play" . Interesting.

[Underdog88]

I can see Miami keeping it close in the first half and then maybe Cleveland pull away in the second , maybe fatigue sets in for Miami becaise of the back to back on the road.
Is that the trend you saw in the above listed B2B heat series ?

Not at all. 1sth results in the b2b

Lakers won 51-48

Spurs won 58-49

Jazz won 58-47

Thunder won 55-46

Bucks won 56-38



Definitely has me thinking 1sth over....

[Underdog88]

The Heat won 2 2ndhalfs in these matchups.... 59-57 @ La and 46-39 @ Mil. They lost the 2ndh by a margin of 21 @sas, 18 @Utah and 8 @OKC.....

[Underdog88]

Just saw that Tony Parker is upgraded to "probable to play" . Interesting.

source?

[MrDecipher]

source is yahoo sports.

Feb 4 Parker (ankle) participated fully in the Spurs' shootaround on Wednesday without any effects on his injured left ankle, and should be ready for Thursday's game against the Blazers, according to the San Antonio Express-News.

[MrDecipher]

I'm officially staying away today . No plays . I have a bad feeling about the Blazers , all of a sudden SA is healthy and Roy out , Spurs become much deeper that my ailing Blazers and I have a feeling SA will pull it off , with that said I'm staying away from both games today and see if there is anything at halftime...