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Hey guys, would like some opinions on some of my plays. Would love to have a nice jumpstart into 2010. You know I am naturally a contrarian, so all logic will be faded in these plays.
Detroit -4.5 vs. Chicago
So Detroit has lost 8 games in a row, 0-8 ATS. Also coming off shady line losses to Tor and NYK on short lines. So why is this line opening at 3.5 getting pushed to 4.5-5? Chicago has won and covered 5/7, and won the first meeting by 7 earlier this year (3 weeks ago). Chicago has also gone 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings vs. Detroit. Detroit is the play here.
San Antonio -8 vs. Miami + Over 195
My main play here is over 195. Miami has played 4 unders in a row, the series has played 5 unders in a row. The last game the O/U was set at 181, AND IT WENT UNDER! So how is the line set at 195 this time? It just boggles my mind. I lean San Antonio here. They are hitting a stride, Miami is a public team, and they are catching wayyy too many points here. I was expecting more like a -5.5 line, not a 7.5 moving up to 8.
Utah +3 vs. Oklahoma City
I do not doubt that Oklahoma City is forreal, and a good team. It is also common knowledge that the Jazz are not a good road team. Hence why they were unable to put away the Wolves last night. So OK City coming in 5-0 ATS in their last 5, and off a win vs. Washington with the shadiest of lines. One thing I like to do is fade a team that is coming off a win where the public was all over them. OK City beat Utah by 10 earlier this season, at Utah. Looking for a revenge angle as well.
NBA Leans:
Philly 76ers @ LA Clippers: This team has been so bad this season, I figure it's time to start a covering streak.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas: Nothing much really. I just like the way the Rockets play without TMAC. They look good winning and losing.
Mixed Plays:
Air Force +5 vs. Houston: Huge consensus play here. The public loves high octane offenses. How is a military academy gonna match up?
Navy +6.5 vs. Missouri.: Navy lost 3 in a row ATS to end the season. I'm playing this game as a law of averages play. There have been two -6.5 lines this past week, and the favorite has covered both of them. Like the idea of getting less than a TD here with a military academy (well actually hate the idea, but you know the public loves it).
I'll be home probably until early tonight, so I'll be reading any comments. Thanks everyone for another great year at Predictem. Everyone have a fun and safe New Year. Don't drink til you get sick, but tonight you should be at least toasty :thumbs::laughing:.
Detroit -4.5 vs. Chicago
So Detroit has lost 8 games in a row, 0-8 ATS. Also coming off shady line losses to Tor and NYK on short lines. So why is this line opening at 3.5 getting pushed to 4.5-5? Chicago has won and covered 5/7, and won the first meeting by 7 earlier this year (3 weeks ago). Chicago has also gone 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings vs. Detroit. Detroit is the play here.
San Antonio -8 vs. Miami + Over 195
My main play here is over 195. Miami has played 4 unders in a row, the series has played 5 unders in a row. The last game the O/U was set at 181, AND IT WENT UNDER! So how is the line set at 195 this time? It just boggles my mind. I lean San Antonio here. They are hitting a stride, Miami is a public team, and they are catching wayyy too many points here. I was expecting more like a -5.5 line, not a 7.5 moving up to 8.
Utah +3 vs. Oklahoma City
I do not doubt that Oklahoma City is forreal, and a good team. It is also common knowledge that the Jazz are not a good road team. Hence why they were unable to put away the Wolves last night. So OK City coming in 5-0 ATS in their last 5, and off a win vs. Washington with the shadiest of lines. One thing I like to do is fade a team that is coming off a win where the public was all over them. OK City beat Utah by 10 earlier this season, at Utah. Looking for a revenge angle as well.
NBA Leans:
Philly 76ers @ LA Clippers: This team has been so bad this season, I figure it's time to start a covering streak.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas: Nothing much really. I just like the way the Rockets play without TMAC. They look good winning and losing.
Mixed Plays:
Air Force +5 vs. Houston: Huge consensus play here. The public loves high octane offenses. How is a military academy gonna match up?
Navy +6.5 vs. Missouri.: Navy lost 3 in a row ATS to end the season. I'm playing this game as a law of averages play. There have been two -6.5 lines this past week, and the favorite has covered both of them. Like the idea of getting less than a TD here with a military academy (well actually hate the idea, but you know the public loves it).
I'll be home probably until early tonight, so I'll be reading any comments. Thanks everyone for another great year at Predictem. Everyone have a fun and safe New Year. Don't drink til you get sick, but tonight you should be at least toasty :thumbs::laughing:.