UDoggie's NBA Playoffs

**wsox08** · 04-18-2008, 10:10 PM

GL this post season.. see any value in the Pistons NBA champs future?

**Underdog88** · 04-19-2008, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by wsox08

GL this post season.. see any value in the Pistons NBA champs future?

Given the reality that it'll likely come down to Bos/Det Eastern final I don't think it would be a bad shot. Right now I see +633 & though I think that Boston wins the East, that's not too bad of a number for a great team. One thing that the East has going for them is that the West is so talented. The West could very well find themselves in long grueling series all the way to the finals... I would have played a Celtics future at 2.2 to 1 or so, but the value has been completely drained out & +180 is a trash number.

Game 1 thoughts....

Spurs/Suns- Normally I would lay off the Spurs game 1 as they traditionally don't cover/win. However, this is a different situation this season. They aren't the top seed, they haven't been healthy all season & they aren't even in the top 3 favorites to win the championship! Also, the last meeting @ SA was a 96-79 blowout loss, so the Spurs get a chance at revenge with much more at stake. IMO they come out with a chip on their shoulder game 1. The final game vs Utah showed me everything I needed to know. Barry came off the bench & didn't miss, Parker was dishing, Finley was hitting his open looks. The Spurs looked like the Spurs. You just know they will be mentally prepared here, & they have home court vs the Suns. A game 1 win is huge in a series that looks to be this tight. The Suns took the season series 3-1 beating the SDpurs 2x in their own house. However, before blowing out the Spurs away, they were just 2-8 on the road vs. Western conference teams that made the playoffs. We'll see if Shaq pays divedends, but I'd still rather have Duncan in the paint. Better D, better bench, more experience.... gimme the Spurs. reagrding the total, I have a hard time seeing this one getting over 185. Playoffs are a completely different beast- IMO only ot or a extremely high shooting % will kill the under. Under or nothing imo.

Cavs/Wiz- Already posted my series thoughts in another thread, but regarding today, gimme the home team with the much better D & the best player on the court to take the game su. Placed this wager late Thursday night, as it is now upwards of 165. I saw it as low as -135, but was late on that. I would not play the ML anymore, & would likely not play the game at all at it's current line. -3.5 is opening the door to a win/ no cover IMO. Just a gut feeling, but in a game that I suspect could be really tight, I'm not laying 3.5. IMO the biggets thing people are missing is how bad the Wiz D can be. Despite that, I have a pretty big lean to the under here. Look at the Cavs game 1 totals in the past- all unders. They don't want to get into a run & shoot with the Wiz, as it does not favor the Cavs. I look for them to establish Z in the paint, & play tough defensively. Should the Cavs fall short game 1, I'll likely back them on the ML game 2 as they will not lose both of their home games.

Hornets/Mavericks- This is one series that IMO could go either way. All of the pressure is on the Hornets here, IMO. The Mavs collectively have a ridiculous amount of playoff experience, & the Hornets are a young team. The Mavs are just plain great at home, & the Hornets are still underrated IMO. CP3/Kidd should be just a great matchup to watch, though at this point I have to give the edge to th best pg in the game in Paul. Chandler has a huge advantage in the paint over Dampier, IMO the biggest advantage NO has over the Mavs. It's no surprise that the Mavs go as Dirk does, so he'll need a spectacular performance this whole series for the Mavs to win. I just don't think they take game 1 away from the Hornets- They know that dropping game 1 would be huge as hard as it is to beat the <Mavs when they're at home. No strong opinion on the total, but would be cautious of playing any overs game 1.

Rockets/Jazz- Alston out makes the Rockets a tough play, but they have been stellar all season long. The Ultimate revenge series here, & the Jazz are damn near unbeatable at home, so Houston must take all their home games. Rolling again with the better defensive team by a long shot. That is what wins in the playoffs, proven time & time again. The Rockets were 4th in the NBA allowing 94 ppg. The Jazz were 17th. Rockets may have peaked too early in the season, but I do think they have a better than 2 to 1 chance of taking this series... another game that I'll likely double up on should they lose game 1.

**Underdog88** · 04-19-2008, 09:38 AM

So I won a $100 free play at BetUs thanks to the PredictEm contest. Figured just for fun I can try to get a streak going, so I'll keep a seperate record for it. Trying to go all-in 3-0 with the free play- that's my goal. We'll see if I can get there, so today my Free Play (0-0) will be on...

Spurs-4

**Daws1089** · 04-19-2008, 09:46 AM

gl underdog

**homedawg** · 04-19-2008, 09:53 AM

GL UD :beerbang: dem trash talkin' wizzies better bring there best game today.. gonna be a hostile crowd and pumped up cavs team. just hope they dont get into foul trouble, but there's gonna be some hard playin' today at the Q..

**Underdog88** · 04-19-2008, 10:07 AM

Thanks Daws, HD!

HD- Most definitely... honestly I am very surprised that the Wiz are getting so much love. Should be an electric environment for sure :thumbs:

Won't be around to play any 2nd halfs, but I do have a couple small plays goin on as well...

Wizards/Cavaliers u92 1sth

Suns/Spurs u47-105 3rdq

1 unit each

Like I said before I think the Cavs slow it down & play D & look to thwart the transition scoring. 1sth & the Wiz could come out very jittery. If they rush shots, the Cavs will eat the clock up, so the under looks good 1sth. Don't like the idea of a low number with potential fouling late, so 1sth only.

The Spurs/Suns 3rdq under is basically relying on two good coaches coming up with solid defensive schemes to adjust in the 2ndh. Once again leaving out the chance of late fts killing the under....

I think that's it for today, will have 1 big play for tomorrow that is definite, still looking into the rest. :thumbs:

**landon4279** · 04-19-2008, 10:32 AM

Good luck today Udoggie...like the first half under on cavs/wiz.

**RahStahMan** · 04-19-2008, 12:55 PM

GL UD!
:beer2:

**Underdog88** · 04-19-2008, 09:56 PM

Thanks landon & Rah:beer2:

Jazz/Rockets u94 2ndh

2 units

**Underdog88** · 04-20-2008, 10:31 AM

Well the Spurs pull the win/no cover... thought that the Cavs would be the ones to do it. Serves me right for laying chalk in that series, not happening again. If I like a fave to win on a short line, chances are I'll be playing the ML. Jazz were definitely the right side, Boozer wreaked havoc in the paint. Pretty much a dead ticket on the Rockets future now, but I do think they win game 2. Onto todays games

Celtics-5 1stq

4 units

Lakers-2.5-105 1stq

Hawks team u87

Nuggets team u107.5

2 units each

7 pt teaser

Celtics-8
Sixers+16.5
Mavericks+10.5 game2
Suns+9.5 game2

2 to win 2.8 units

12-29. That's the Hawks record on the road, & Josh Smith wants to open his trap & say they're gonna shock the world vs Boston? No. IMO Boston will be in control of this one from start to finish- I wouldn't play on the Hawks in any way here, as I just don't see the Celtics as a team to pull a round 1 game 1 no show. I look for more of what we've seen all season long. Stifling defense & pressure to create turnovers. As for the Lakers, it's yet another fade of the Nuggets on the road. Bad matchup for the Nuggets IMO, as the Lakers can keep up with the fast pace yet they also can play defense. Playing on the Nuggets team under as- a. it's a playoff game, & you can bet the Lakers will look to slow things down a bit & b. the Nuggets didn't top this total in all 3 games played vs the Lakers. IMO over will be the play when the series heads back to Denver. Played the teaser to include the Sixers play & some game 2s (both of which should be closely played games throughout). The Sixers thrive off of turnovers, which Detroit prides themselves in limiting. Therefore, a su win seems unlikely for the Sixers here. However, they do play good defensively so they should be able to keep this one relatively close. Oh yeah, & Homedawg likes them :beer2:

I think the Magic take game 1, but I don't like it enough to pull the trigger.... GLTA :thumbs:

**bigmoe** · 04-20-2008, 11:34 AM

Good luck today, UDoggie.

**cavorca12** · 04-20-2008, 08:29 PM

Tailed you on the Bos 1Q play, thanks for the winner! :beerbang:

**homedawg** · 04-20-2008, 08:34 PM

Thanks for the shoutout :toast: where is the play? :drunk:

**Underdog88** · 04-20-2008, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by homedawg

Thanks for the shoutout :toast: where is the play? :drunk:

Threw them in a teaser & ended up throwing some pocket change on the ML for ****s & giggles. :thumbs:

Celtics-420 2ndh
Rockets-115 game 2

3 to win 3.94 units

Celtics team o50.5 2ndh

Celtics-7-105 2ndh

1 unit each

UDoggie's NBA Playoffs