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Some nice games today....
"I don't think you can really be a good team if you consistently lose 2 or 3 games in a row.......You've got to find a way to break it."
Avery Johnson
Home team has won all 3 previous matchups this season, with the Spurs winning the last two. Dallas is 2 days rested & has had time to think about losing their last 2 home games. Seemingly the Spurs rough patch is over, as they won 2 b2b games by 12+. Howver, I'm not sure how much credit I can give them for beating the Bulls & a bad road team in the Kings. Dallas needs this game pretty badly- the reality of it all is that both teams will be in the playoffs, but it's games like these that Dallas needs to win predominantly for their psyche. Losing to 3 straight playoff bound teams in a row would be a confidence crusher. I think they are in a pretty favorable spot, @ home having revenge & 2 days rest. For those reasons I think they dig down deep & pull out the win today. I will not be taking the points today, but there's just 1 thing that is keeping me from laying the 3.5. Both Spurs wins were decided by 3 pts or less. I do not expect a blowout, the Spurs have a knack of staying in games down the stretch. I also do not want to lay -160, though I would consider @ -135, I just won't eat ML chalk that high in these closely played games with 2 good teams. Strong lean on the Mavs. Also a lean on the under, falls under the system play but again would be tough to make given recent scoring history....
Den/Tor- Well this here is one I'm totally fine with laying pts with. Truth be told, I think Toronto blows the doors off Denver here. Is Denver still on the road? Then I'm still fadin them! I side stepped them beating the Nets as I played on the over (the Nets are too bad to back), but I'm back on the fade train. Cherry on top is the lovely, lovely revenge angle. The Raptors lost 137-105 @ Denver, & were without the services of Bosh. That was a huge factor in the loss, as Camby owned the paint scoring 17 pts, 10 rebounds & 6 assists. That won't happen @ Toronto with Bosh in the game. Another reason I don't mind laying the chalk is Toronto's margin of victory at home. Look it up, but they cover at home when they win. IMO this is a good game to reverse, if you're into that sort of thing. play on the Raptors-3-105. Total looks a little high to me, I would have set it at 219 or so, so I see a little value in the under.
Det/Wash- Pistons won the last meeting in Washington 106-93, so Washington has the revenge angle. I have to consider the Wiz getting pts at home with the revenge angle working in their favor. Detroit will be a tricky team to figure out ats for the remainder of the regular season IMO. Flip has already shown that he would like to get the bench more minutes, so the Wizards could very well be in this game down the stretch. Total set pretty low, possible 1sth over play, as these two combined for 104 1sth last time around... Lean Wiz
GS/Lakers- would be leaning towards grabbing the points, but I don't think the Warriors win if Pietrus is a no go. I think the Lakers take the game su, but I'm not in the business of laying points with a team when a huge part of their offense/inside game is still out. Wouldn't play anything tied to the under in any form either. I think the Warriors will run (shocking), & though the Lakers may look to slow it down, I'm sure they will still be scoring.... Lean over.
"I don't think you can really be a good team if you consistently lose 2 or 3 games in a row.......You've got to find a way to break it."
Avery Johnson
Home team has won all 3 previous matchups this season, with the Spurs winning the last two. Dallas is 2 days rested & has had time to think about losing their last 2 home games. Seemingly the Spurs rough patch is over, as they won 2 b2b games by 12+. Howver, I'm not sure how much credit I can give them for beating the Bulls & a bad road team in the Kings. Dallas needs this game pretty badly- the reality of it all is that both teams will be in the playoffs, but it's games like these that Dallas needs to win predominantly for their psyche. Losing to 3 straight playoff bound teams in a row would be a confidence crusher. I think they are in a pretty favorable spot, @ home having revenge & 2 days rest. For those reasons I think they dig down deep & pull out the win today. I will not be taking the points today, but there's just 1 thing that is keeping me from laying the 3.5. Both Spurs wins were decided by 3 pts or less. I do not expect a blowout, the Spurs have a knack of staying in games down the stretch. I also do not want to lay -160, though I would consider @ -135, I just won't eat ML chalk that high in these closely played games with 2 good teams. Strong lean on the Mavs. Also a lean on the under, falls under the system play but again would be tough to make given recent scoring history....
Den/Tor- Well this here is one I'm totally fine with laying pts with. Truth be told, I think Toronto blows the doors off Denver here. Is Denver still on the road? Then I'm still fadin them! I side stepped them beating the Nets as I played on the over (the Nets are too bad to back), but I'm back on the fade train. Cherry on top is the lovely, lovely revenge angle. The Raptors lost 137-105 @ Denver, & were without the services of Bosh. That was a huge factor in the loss, as Camby owned the paint scoring 17 pts, 10 rebounds & 6 assists. That won't happen @ Toronto with Bosh in the game. Another reason I don't mind laying the chalk is Toronto's margin of victory at home. Look it up, but they cover at home when they win. IMO this is a good game to reverse, if you're into that sort of thing. play on the Raptors-3-105. Total looks a little high to me, I would have set it at 219 or so, so I see a little value in the under.
Det/Wash- Pistons won the last meeting in Washington 106-93, so Washington has the revenge angle. I have to consider the Wiz getting pts at home with the revenge angle working in their favor. Detroit will be a tricky team to figure out ats for the remainder of the regular season IMO. Flip has already shown that he would like to get the bench more minutes, so the Wizards could very well be in this game down the stretch. Total set pretty low, possible 1sth over play, as these two combined for 104 1sth last time around... Lean Wiz
GS/Lakers- would be leaning towards grabbing the points, but I don't think the Warriors win if Pietrus is a no go. I think the Lakers take the game su, but I'm not in the business of laying points with a team when a huge part of their offense/inside game is still out. Wouldn't play anything tied to the under in any form either. I think the Warriors will run (shocking), & though the Lakers may look to slow it down, I'm sure they will still be scoring.... Lean over.
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