Early Bird Tuesday Lookahead/ Discussion

**Underdog88** · 02-18-2008, 01:30 PM

Random thoughts.....

IMO every home team should be favored tomorrow, though there is a chance the Celtics open as short faves- also a small chance that Philly opens pk or so. Due to the Bibby trade, the Kings/Blazers & Hawks/Lakers lines could be extremely inflated. I would have set both these lines 1 pt+ lower than they are, but for all I know they could have the Blazers as 10 pt faves. The more I look at it the more I think Portland will be laying more than the 6.5 I gave them originally.

Revenge angles- A couple to talk about. I'm going to start in what I would believe order of strength would be.

Cavs- A quick revenge game, as the Cavs lost @ Houston 92-77 on feb 7. It is important to note that they were in a total letdown spot having beat the Celtics @ home the game previous. They have lost 2 in a row at home (Spurs & Nuggets), so this could be a good spot to jump on the home team, hopefully with a shorter line....

Nuggets- The Celtics beat the Nuggets @ home last time they faced off 119-93. This was much bigger of a blowout than the final score suggests- Boston shot 65%, lead 77-38 at the half, & lead by as many as 41 points. Denver was held to 5 fast break points. Melo was held to 11 pts, & 2 rebounds, while Garnett (who hopefully won't play) had 23 pts, 13 rebs & 7 assists. I'm sure the Nuggets will use their last meeting as motivation, & I think Melo lights it up tomorrow. Over could be a play as well- the Celtics have plenty of scorers without Garnett, but their D should suffer a bit here without him.

Lakers- Lost last time they faced of @ATL 98-95 on Feb 6. Lakers first game back home off a successful road trip that saw them go 7-2, & win convincingly. This will also be Gasol's homecoming to Staples, so I expect there to be extra motivation there. Due to the trade, I'm afraid this line will be way out of whack & therefore tougher to play. I do expect a DD win for the LakeShow here in front of an excited home crowd. Will likely look into the team total, as I can see LA scoring 118+

Sonics- Have lost all 3 meeting to Memphis, including 2 by 17+ @ Memphis. Their home loss was 108-105. I can't really put too much stock into Sonics revenge here, as they have revenge vs. prtty much everyone in the league lol.

**Underdog88** · 02-18-2008, 01:44 PM

Potential plays for me so far....

Cavs -pts

Houston team under

Nuggets ats

GS/Jazz game over

Blazers -pts

Lakers 1stq

Possible live dogs-

Knicks- just 5-20 on the road, but if Butler is a no- go, than I would say they have a better than average chance at a win. They have been scoring more points as of late.

Philly- 9-16 road team vs. 8-18 home team. Philly has won 5 in a row, but they were all home games.... Minny has Jefferson & that's it, if he's contained, they lose, simple as that. Not sure if Philly can contain him though....

Charlotte- could very well keep it within the number. They are 4-18 on the road up against a 20-5 home team, so i'm not giving them much of a chance at the su win. They have been blown out on the road by the likes of NO, PHX, DEN, GS & DET. However, they have kept it under 10 pt losses @ Orl, NJ, CLEV (lost by 7 in ot). They also beat Boston su, I would put SA into the second group of teams as far as style of play goes. With Parker a ?, I have to give the Cats a look.

Could make cases for a couple more, but I'll wait & see if anyone responds....

**TheBeholdah** · 02-19-2008, 01:33 AM

thinking completely differently about the rockets-cavs game; i like the rockets. they're the better team and have won 17 out of 20, they need to win games like this to keep pace in the west. i really dont think the break will cool off the rockets, any time mcgrady can get rest its good for them.

**dananderson32** · 02-19-2008, 01:58 AM

i like the cavs :beerbang: :beerbang:

**wsox08** · 02-19-2008, 01:59 AM

not sure how much my opinions are going to change and not all the lines are up but...

I'd probably lean more towards HOuston. I haven't looked at the injuries yet for the Cavs though.

I know the last meeting was a faster pace, but I'd lean towards the under here.

GState Over: no explanation needed

Doesn't the Portland o/u at 195 seem a little high?

I would play the Memphis-Seattle over but I'm not 100% sure that Mem can score w/o Gasol.

**Underdog88** · 02-19-2008, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by TheBeholdah

thinking completely differently about the rockets-cavs game; i like the rockets. they're the better team and have won 17 out of 20, they need to win games like this to keep pace in the west. i really dont think the break will cool off the rockets, any time mcgrady can get rest its good for them.

i think the Cavs need this one even more. they are going to have to get some momentum up if they want to make a run in the East. While revenge is the biggest factor in me liking this, I also like the Cavs off of 2 straight home losses. I just don't think LeBron will let them drop 3 in a row. While I give them credit for winning, it's not as if the Rockets have had the toughest of road games lately

@Minny......won by 6

@Mil...........won by 8

@Indy........won by 3

@Port.........won by 10

@Sea.........won by 2

Every game was close, with the exception of the Blazers game.

Looking as the lines are coming up, & I see a couple of lines went my way. Cavs & Denver are both dogged, as are the Wolves at home. The Wiz are laying 6, Butler has to be playing, right? If he isn't I don't see how that number is justified.

The Blazers line is shorter than I thought, I think I'll be on them in some form. Sonics favored by 5! Have to at least consider the dog there. I think the Lakers line is actually soft, & wouldn't give a single thought to backing the Hawks. Hoping for even juice on the Lakers 1stq, may be the way I'll go there.

**Underdog88** · 02-19-2008, 11:05 AM

Making a case for the Wolves as home dogs tonight.....

Philly is favored on the road. Call me crazy, but I don't think a 9-16 road team should be favored on the road. Obviously it's due to their recent success, but look a little deeper into their wins. They have won 5 straight @ home, & 6 of their last 7 home games. Dallas was the only decent team in the bunch (though they are still just 12-15 on the road)- they would have lost to the Wiz had Butler not been injured. The other teams they beat @ home? The Bucks, Heat, Clippers, & Grizzlies- not the best of road teams.... The combined road record for the 6 teams Philly beat is 44-112! Not to mention the Sixers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.

The Wolves have had much tougher competition @ home lately. They are 4-4 in their last 8 home games, but they have lost to the Lakers, Raptors, Celtics (by 2), & the Rockets. They beat the Clippers, Bulls, Nets & Suns. Much tougher home schedule for the Wolves... Last meeting was in Philly, & the Sixers won 98-94. Dalembert played a great game recording a double double with 9 blocks. Jefferson still managed 22 pts, 11 rebs. I think Jefferson could go off today....

**wsox08** · 02-19-2008, 11:16 AM

I agree and think that Minnesota has a chance of winning this one.

Short line on Portland at home where they've been solid this year.

Any thoughts on the totals in Portland and Denver?

**Underdog88** · 02-19-2008, 11:32 AM

wsox- Portland line does look very low, & with all the lineup changes for the Kings, I think it's especially tough to predict the pace/ total for this game. The line looks higher than it should be, but the Kings may look to push the ball. The more I look at this game/total, the more questions arise... I think I may leave this one alone entirely...

As for the Denver/Boston total, I did have it set 1.5 pts higher, as the Celtics have been on a little over run. Boston is more than capable of running, but I don't know if they want to get into a super- uptempo game as it suits the Nuggets gameplan. I think in order for this to hit, both teams will need to shoot in the 48-50% range. Lean to the over, not sure if I'll play it though. Denver has now moved to a pick....

**SRN1985** · 02-19-2008, 11:40 AM

Like the Knicks/Wiz over...both teams that will run the court I feel and give away loose on defense.

Sonics -3 1st Half - no reason, just gut LOL

Thats all for now...for some reason that Rockets/Cavs game looks to hard to cap...even with the angles on the cavs, the cockets could just come out from the start and not let go...if anything I would play cavs first half as the last couple meetings I recall the cavs leading and keeping it close both @houston and home in the beginning:dunno:

Also, what site or where do you get your info for stats, trends, and records if you dont mind sharing?

:thumbs:

**Underdog88** · 02-19-2008, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by SRN1985

Also, what site or where do you get your info for stats, trends, and records if you dont mind sharing?

I don't use a site- i just look all the stats up on espn.com. It definitely is more time consuming, but I feel that just looking at the compiled stats does not tell the whole story. I like to see who a team beat at home to go 5-0, rather than just see that they did it. So much of my capping is sitautional, so I like to look at every team's schedule. I guess I'm kinda old-school- I have a notebook that I writedown **** in, plus a calendar to mark down upcoming potential plays.

**SRN1985** · 02-19-2008, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Underdog88

I don't use a site- i just look all the stats up on espn.com. It definitely is more time consuming, but I feel that just looking at the compiled stats does not tell the whole story. I like to see who a team beat at home to go 5-0, rather than just see that they did it. So much of my capping is sitautional, so I like to look at every team's schedule. I guess I'm kinda old-school- I have a notebook that I writedown **** in, plus a calendar to mark down upcoming potential plays.

Thanks...yea I noticed that you have really good work ethic when it comes to capping games and seem to know exactly what trend or record to look for in particular situations.

Anyways keep up the good work and Good Luck:thumbs:

Early Bird Tuesday Lookahead/ Discussion