UDoggie's Tuesday NBA/Discussion

**Underdog88** · 03-20-2007, 12:49 PM

Charlotte+7 vs Cleveland o/u 195

The Cavs are on a roll, winning 8 straight games...The Bobcats have lost 10 of their last 12 games. Cleveland won by 20 pts @ home in the last meeting. Despite this, I can't help but look into the Bobcats here...Since feb, the Cavs are 5-4 on the road, with 4 of the 5 wins being by 6 pts or less. So in the last 9 road games, there has only been 1 instance where the Cavs won by more than 6 (a 22 pt blowout vs Memphis). There is also the look ahead factor, as the Cavs face the Mavs at home tomorrow...4 of the Cats last 5 home games have gone over the number. Charlotte has a habit of either winning su or failing to cover the spread, so playing the Bobcats would mean expecting a su win. Cleveland has not lost to a team with a losing record since Dec 24, when they dropped one to Philly. I'm waiting to see the status of May tonight, as IMO the Cats will need some sort of presence underneath to have a shot at the su win tonight (Okeafor is likely still out with a strained calf)...if anything I will likely play the ml small.....

**BlazerAndy** · 03-20-2007, 01:25 PM

What's with the line change on the Nuggs/Nets? Any opinions on Suns/Wolves?

**Underdog88** · 03-20-2007, 01:26 PM

GS+7.5 @ Utah o/u 206

Utah back home after a 0-4 road trip...meanwhile Baron Davis has ignited the Warriors, who have won 6 of 7. The sole loss was in Portland, & Davis didn't play...I would expect 25+ minutes from him tonight. This line screams value to me- I know the Jazz have been a solid home team this year, but to me it looks like the hotter team is catching the points, & home court here does not warrant a line this high! The last 6 home games Utah is 5-1, but 4 were NO, Indy, Char & Bos. They beat the Cavs by 1 & lost to the Lakeshow. Not that impressive, &tonight they are likely without Harpring (the teams 4th leading scorer) & Giricek. This means more of Miles, Brewer & Millsap.... I am well aware of GS's road woes-they have only won 8 this year on the road, but IMO they have a legit shot tonight. GS lost by 1 in Wash, & beat the Pistons away, why not the slumping Jazz. As for the total, IMO under or no play...the Jazz have failed to get over 96 pts in the last 6 games, & haven't scored over 90 in 4....I'm thinking GS 100-97 would work for me.

**Underdog88** · 03-20-2007, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by BlazerAndy

What's with the line change on the Nuggs/Nets? Any opinions on Suns/Wolves?

Looks as if the books took some heavy action early on the Nuggets...maybe sharps like Denver, & hit it when there was the most value. It opened at NJ -2, but now Denver favored, despite the action being pretty split. Honestly I really don't think it's that big a deal, as the chances are slim the game is decided by 1. Then again, vegas always knows what they are doing LoL....

As for the Suns, IMO they win, but it's a tossup to whether or not they cover this high number. I was on the Wolves & ml the last time they met, when Minny broke the streak...I don't see a su win for Minny, but the days of me laying over 6 pts are long gone. Personally it would be Minny ats or Suns ml in a parlay....but spread wise IMO it could go either way, JMO.

What do you guys think....anyone alive out there???

**Horatio** · 03-20-2007, 01:52 PM

I Am Alive Barely

too much going on right now.But I think you got a good deal on the Nuggets.They are getting it together. I think Karl may have known what he was doing regarding his comments on Anthony.:beerbang:

**BlazerAndy** · 03-20-2007, 02:00 PM

Yeah I got Denver at +1.5 and Minnesota at +13. The Blazers/Wizards game intrigues me as Zach Randolph is on bereavement due to one of his friends getting killed a couple of nights ago so he's a no-go. The thing is last time we played without Zach we won by 10. Wiz favored by 3.5 I'm leaning towards Portland but that's a homer play. Also leaning on the over 200.5 as it should be more of a run-and-gun game with Zach not playing. But it all depends on whether or not Nate McMillan plays the young guys (Sergio Rodriguez especially) or if he gives big minutes to guys like Jamaal Magloire instead. The other intriguing bet for me on this game is a daily player prop on Gilbert Arenas' scoring total. Gilbert predicted he'd drop 50 on us because he feels Nate McMillan is at least partially responsible for Gil being cut from the US team. So what did Gil do? He scored something like 9 points. The O/U is 30, which I think Gilbert will surpass but I hate laying a bet down that says a guy will drop 30+ on my team. Sportsbook not offering a player prop on Brandon Roy for some reason but I'll jump on it if it's in the low 20's as he is now the main guy without Zach, and Roy has yet to play an NBA game without Zach on his team. He'll probably see a lot of double-teams though. As you can tell I'm indecisive as hell about this game.

**Horatio** · 03-20-2007, 02:09 PM

Gilbert

I suspect Gil drops at least 30 in the Blazers for the reasons you cited. He has a real grudge, compounded it by really stinking it up, and now really wants what he thinks he can get. Gotta like his chances, and it is not really that much of a stretch for him.

**Whaleydog** · 03-20-2007, 02:11 PM

GL Tonight Udog ! Keep up the solid work!

**Underdog88** · 03-20-2007, 02:26 PM

Denver was my lean, but I will be sticking to the Den/NJ total only....possible 2ndh play on side, but I'd like to see a little before I play it...

Regarding the Portland/Wiz game...I am not a fan of road faves, let alone public ones....However I wouldn't lay money on the Blazers missing Randolf tonight- that's nearly 1/4 of the offense missing for them. Aside from that the Blazers are just 3-7 su @ home last 10, with 2 losses being less than 4 pts. Possible revenge angle for Wiz & Arenas as you pointed out, I'm thinking that player prop may be a solid play, as Butler will not be playing. Unfortunately I don't have player props @ my book...Honestly IMO the Wiz win this one by 7+, & I don't have to much of an opinion on the total- although I would beware the over- Despite the public liking the over, it has dropped nearly 3 pts. Also, 5 of the last 6 home games for Portland have failed to get over 200. GL whatever you play Blazer Andy:thumbs:

**Underdog88** · 03-20-2007, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Horatio

I suspect Gil drops at least 30 in the Blazers for the reasons you cited. He has a real grudge, compounded it by really stinking it up, and now really wants what he thinks he can get. Gotta like his chances, and it is not really that much of a stretch for him.

Agreed cheers:

**Stifler's Mom** · 03-20-2007, 03:39 PM

I would not play the Wiz on the road....ever. 91% on a road chalk is a BAD thing, and if the oddsmakers thought Portland had no shot at hanging in this game just because Z-bo is out, they would have raised the line to at least Wiz -6.5 (or probably more) and just ate whatever they already took at Wiz -1.5, hoping for more even action on the new line. Just moving it to -3.5 or -4 however, is not deterring anyone from taking the Wiz, and I would be highly suspicious of this line.

I rarely disagree with U-dog, nor do I like to, but in this case, I feel it's Portland or no play.

I've been wrong before, but this is just my 2 cents.

I do agree that Golden St and Charlotte are excellent value ML plays IMO though, and also very solid plays ATS :thumbs:

**Stifler's Mom** · 03-20-2007, 04:00 PM

I'm not sure what the percentages were when the line moved for NJ/Denver, but as of right now there are 72% on Denver -1 and 91% on Denver ML.

As far as early sharp action on Denver, I obviously cannot confirm or deny that, but I can say that it is nearly impossible to get a good public reading early after a line is released, because often times there are "better" or "smarter" players getting their money in on the side they like, evening out the action....and when the true Joe Q's chime in, one side starts to become very lopsided....like very well may have happened here with NJ/Denver.

From every angle I can see, the obvious public opinion is on Denver tonight. You don't need any type of lines and odds service to see that....can get it just from reading gambling forums, and it's not surprising seeings as how Denver thrashed the Suns last time out. Denver was already a pretty popular public team, and that game I'm sure has put many over the top, in that they now think of Denver as an "elite" team, which they are not.

With that being said, I want to play NJ, but I am hesitant to play on that team. They're so hit and miss, and I am afraid that if they are unable to slow the Nuggets, that the old men (by NBA standards) on NJ are going to get tired.

**Stifler's Mom** · 03-20-2007, 04:12 PM

As for adding an opinion, I like Philly tonight.

Detroit actually has a worse record at home than they do on the road. Billups is questionable for Detroit as well with the groin injury. I've noticed that Detroit has a habit of covering lines they should not due to late free throws because Chauncey rarely misses FT's. If i remember correctly, Detroit did not fare very well when Billups was out earlier in the season. He's a key part of that team for sure....and I'm not so sure they have anyone that can even close to adequately replace him.

Then there's the Webber thing. Obviously by leaving Philly, Webber got what he wanted, and the best of the situation....now being on a real contender. Nothing more for him to gain or prove IMO. Philly on the other hand may have a bit of a chip on their shoulders about how Webber behaved in Philly and about him wanting to get outta there so bad. I would not base my play on this, but every little bit helps, and since I think this line is out of whack to begin with, I figured I'd bring it up.

In addition, before getting thrashed by the red hot Rockets, Philly was coming together pretty well, and on fire themselves. I won't let one ass kicking deter me into reverting back to thinking Philly is worthless (you guys don't think Phoenix is worthless just because the Nuggets stomped their asses the other night, do ya?). Same thinking for me here.

I think Philly can hang within the number tonight, and possibly win SU. Either that or the Houston beating has sent them back to ****sville, and they'll get their asses kicked by a team missing the guy that runs their offense, and best free throw shooter down the stretch.

Philly once more for me, and I'll see how they react to their 50 pt loss to Houston.

**BlazerAndy** · 03-20-2007, 04:27 PM

Back to the Blazers/Wiz (because frankly who doesn't want to discuss this game ad nauseam) :sm: I just read that the Blazers are the only team that Gilbert Arenas hasn't dropped 30 against this season. I can't go against that streak and now I'm thinking about playing the under 30. Also I think UDog has helped to convince me to bet the under, especially since it appears Nate McMillan is going to increase Jamaal Magloire's minutes tonight since Randolph is out. Jamaal Magloire on the court = low-scoring game. If I make some plays I'll post them in my Nuggs/Nets thread. Stifler good argument on the Philly/Pistons game I just don't watch those teams play enough but if I were to make a play I'd probably take the Sixers.

UDoggie's Tuesday NBA/Discussion