Humpday Spidey Tatts/Discussion

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 11:23 AM

Nuggets/Jazz- I would expect a close game than the last time these two faced off (An 11 point Nuggets win that was actually a blowout throughout). The Jazz are looking to win their 10th straight game, but I think the over is the best play in this matchup. Their last meeting totaled 229 pts, with both teams shooting 44%. They shot a relatively pedestrian 14-38 from 3 pt land, so it wasn't lights out shooting that got them into the 220's, it was tempo. They combined for 54 fast break points. I would expect more of the same, with Deron pushing the ball....they have scored 110 in their last two games (NO & Memphis), & Deron is playing like he has something to prove since the all-star snubbing. I think the key here aside from fast breaks will be 3 point shooting- aside from the obvious stars AI, Melo, Deron, Korver & Kleiza should both get some open looks from the 3 pt line. Kleiza played the game of his life last meeting, I have this sneaking suspicion Korver plays well here. Another thing I like about this matchup is the Jazz's play vs. uptempo western teams....

@ Lakers 232 pts

@ Dallas 242 pts

@ Sac 224 pts

@ Lakers 228 pts

vs. GS 243 pts

the 2nd matchup vs GS went under, & they played the Suns on a b2b which just got over the 200's, but as you see a majority of their road games vs. uptempo western teams have gone into the 220's. That's enough for me to play on the large number.

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 11:38 AM

Leaning hard on the Suns... They lost @ NO earlier this season 101-98, then again at home 118-113, so double revenge working here. The Hornets have dropped 3 straight, with losses by 13, 9 & 22 points. At first glance 5 points to the Hornets seems to be a bit high, but realistically what line are books gonna put out for a Suns home game. 12 of their last 13 wins have been by 7 or more points.

**recovering77** · 02-06-2008, 12:08 PM

Glad ur up early underdog. I like Phoenix as well. Dunno if Marion is still playing, but if he's not, Phoenix still has weapons to put in his spot. New Orleans has cooled off considerably since the winning streak.

Looking at a couple of fades for today.
Atlanta, good and young home team, vs. A hot lakers team on a back to back. I was watching the game on sportsline and Gasol is an offensive rebounding machine! Lines too shady for me though, and too much public consensus.

Washington, a battered team playing at home against Spurs. Washington played very well last night until the last 8 mins of the 4th. Shot the ball very well, before stinking it up late. Spurs looked average at best against Indiana last night, but came on strong in the third quarter. Spurs record on back to backs apparently not good on the road.

Basically fading the public, and the new players in these instances. New players generally cannot join a team and immediately become dominant. Stoudamire and Gasol shouldn't be able to do it again.

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 12:55 PM

Atlanta looks good to me mainly because of the bad spot the Lakers are in. 5th in 7 days, a b2b road game. I could have had them when I woke up at +4.5, now it has dropped back down to 3.5. I think they are the play....

Washington scares me. I was all about fading the Spurs on b2b road games, but here I would be cautious. The Wizards aren't playing good ball lately, & could be without Butler. 6.5 for the home team looks appealing, especially when you consider the Spurs on a b2b, but then again so are the Wiz. Unless you think the Wiz win su, I wouldn't consider the dog. In their 10 home losses, just 1 has been by 6 pts or less. The Wiz have performed badly as home dogs this season.

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 01:33 PM

Do the Blazers deserve to be 6 pt favorites the way they are playing?

Are the Magic going to continue to play bad defense? If that's the case, I like the over.

Do the C's play some lock down defense off a loss?

I'm adding Clips team total u88 to the top. Considered laying the points, also considered the under, so this is just a combination of the two. I settled on this mainly because I could see the Celtics putting up too many points to push this over (though I still lean game under). Here are the points allowed by Boston when playing off a loss...

vs. GS---------> 82 pts

vs. NY---------> 59 pts

vs. Chi---------> 82 pts

@ NJ------------> 77 pts

vs. Wash-------> 88 pts

vs. Port---------> 90 pts

vs. Min----------> 86 pts

@ Mia-----------> 87 pts

So in games off a loss they have only allowed over 88 pts 1 time? The Clippers are off a win as dogs in NY, but before that scored 84 @ Clev & 83 @ Minny, I tend to think they repeat one of those performances vs. a tough Celtic defense.

**GKL68** · 02-06-2008, 02:11 PM

I think the Lakers line shifted back cuz Kobe hurt his hand last night... said he couldn't feel his fingers.

**recovering77** · 02-06-2008, 02:59 PM

thanks for the info underdog.

Atlanta is a def play for me tonight as Kobe Bryant's status questionable.

Kobe says that he'll play, but I heard reports that he couldn't even feel his finger this morning. I still think he plays though.

People think Pao Gasol can shoulder the load without Kobe's double teams. If Gasol was really that good, Memphis wouldn't have been a trash team for the past few seasons.

I'm considering doing only a 1st quarter play with washington. I've been checking San Antonio's first quarters for the past 10. If they haven't been losing at the end of the first quarter, they have only been winning by 1 pt and I get +2 with Washington. Washington comes out well every game. I think San Antonio covers second half if they do. When people get tired, SA is the best at moving the ball and getting good shots.

**TheBeholdah** · 02-06-2008, 03:12 PM

dogg, you giving the blazers-bulls under a look? 91-83 type imo but i hate playing unders

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by TheBeholdah

dogg, you giving the blazers-bulls under a look? 91-83 type imo but i hate playing unders

No. I could see an under, but since Gordon's return the Bulls have had consecutive games go rather easily over 200. Portland's last game vs. Denver hit 200 in regulation as well, & it seems to me that once a team breaks an under run, it tends to last longer than just one game. I am on the Bulls, as imo the Blazers are getting more respect on this line than they deserve...

2 pt ot loss vs. Denver

6 pt ot win vs. Knicks

1 pt loss vs. Clev

1 pt win vs. Atlanta

10 pt loss vs. Houston

You have to go back 8 games to find a game they won by more than 5 outside of the lucky ot game vs. NY. I think this will be a tight game, & normally if I expect a dog to compete, I am hesitant about playing the under. GL whatever you decide Beholdah :thumbs:

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 06:45 PM

Pistons team u- Another game which I like the game under. High spread gives a pretty high number for the Pistons, one that although i think they likely win comfortably, may be too high given their style of play vs. the Heat. In the last 5 meetings between these teams Detroit has failed to score over 95 points. In their last 6 home games the Stones have scored over 101 one time (103 pts vs Toronto shooting 50%/ 61% 3 pointers). Unless the Heat put up a good fight, & the Pistons shoot extraordinarily well, I would expect Detroit to score 85-95 range....

Pacers/Knicks- Pacers play zero D, & have been allowing pts in bunches- just look at their past couple games played. They are on a b2b, but have scored over 200's on b2b this year- over the # vs mem, Den, Utah, Chi, MIA, Phx, & Orl on b2b games. I think the Pacers have a [pretty good chance at winning, but they don't play D so they're tough to back. Still someone has to win, & I get the feeling the winner puts up 110+. Hoping for good shooting, as I think the numer is pretty on, but still beatable.

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 08:51 PM

Bulls+130 1stq

Bulls+195

1 unit each

Knicks-2.5 2ndh
Heat+10 2ndh

1 to win 2.57 units

Wish I had game line for Detroit, but I have the feeling Wade keeps the Heat within the number tonight.....

**RahStahMan** · 02-06-2008, 09:51 PM

fire it up!
:beer2:
GL U!

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 09:55 PM

Thanks Rah :beer2:

Mavs team o51.5 2ndh

2 units

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 10:14 PM

Damn Pacers/Knicks game shouldn't have touched a thing there. against my better judgement...

Jazz/Nuggets o109 2ndh

Jazz team o52 2ndh

2 units each

Humpday Spidey Tatts/Discussion