UDoggie's Tuesday NBA/Discussion

**SRN1985** · 02-05-2008, 01:57 PM

At first glance I like the lakers...but with Gasol and what not, not quite sure.

Cavs line shot up 1 point in last hour at my book...like the side but not betting

GL U-Dogg:thumbs:

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 02:16 PM

Cavs- This should be a good game. Cavs are starting to play consistently good ball, & are coming off 2 days rest & a relatively easy win over the Clips. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, with what i would consider 2 totally acceptable losses. A 2 pt home loss to the Suns & a loss to seattle on their final road game of the trip (also a b2b & bad situation in general), played without Bron no less. However, it was undoubtedly a successful road trip for the Cavs, with outright wins @ SA, LAL & Portland. In the last meeting between these 2 teams, Boston won 80-70 against a Bron-less Cavs @ home. This loss was actually worse than the score would indicate, with Boston leading throughout & by 21 in the fourth, so IMO the revenge angle is at work. Once again the C's will be without Garnett. They managed a home win vs. Dallas without him last game, but I think this could prove much more difficult in Cleveland. Dirk & Dampier controlled the boards for a good deal of the game vs Boston, I expect Z & Gooden to have success on the boards tonight. To me the biggest problem with Garnett's absence tonight could be Z offensively. Pretty good advantage for him in the post IMO, & with good passing skills, he should be able to draw the defense in to allow some open looks for Gibson as well. Then, you have LeBron. As long as Allen & Pierce don't combine for 65+ points I think the Cavs take this one by 5+. IMO we could see the C's finish the first half of the season on autopilot, a bit lethargic, & more conscious of keeping everyone healthy for the long haul...

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by SRN1985

At first glance I like the lakers...but with Gasol and what not, not quite sure.

Cavs line shot up 1 point in last hour at my book...like the side but not betting

GL U-Dogg:thumbs:

Thanks srn! I'm a bit conflicted on this game, actually. Giving the Nets +7 at home is sure to atttract some attention. I'm not a fan of laying that many pts on the road, but **** IMO the number's justified. The Nets are in a home games sandwiched between 4 road games, & on the front end of a b2b orlando on deck. They've lost 10 of 12 , with their sole wins coming against the Bucks (who are kryptonite on the road) & the Heat (aka the worst team in the nba). I've already looked aroung & seen plays on the Nets, saying Gasol doesn't know the triangle, & he'll take time to adjust. This very well could be the case, but honestly would you rather have an adjusting Gasol, or the embarrassingly bad Kwame Brown? At the very least, Pau's shot has to be respected, so that alone creates opportunity for everyone else. Realistically, since he's still banged up, & this will be his first appearance, I wouldn't count on anything over 24 minutes anyway. Did I mention the Lakers have revenge, since they lost @ home to the nets earlier in the season? 7 pts on the road is still 7 points, & a tough play for me to make. One thing I do think the Lakers have going for them is that 4 of their last 5 road wins were by double digits. I could easily see Vinsanity shooting the Nets right out of this game. To me, this looks like one of those "trendy dogs" that looks as if they're a good value, but in the end lose by DD.

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 02:46 PM

Also want to add that the Cavs line is pretty much saying under. 11 points under the average of both teams makes this a system play, & past matchups do indicate pace could be slow. 150 point total last time out, but both teams shot horribly under 33% each I believe. The meeting previous was a 5 pt overtime win for Cleveland at home which totaled 213 pts. However, only 184 pts were scored in regulation, so it wasn't like the tempo was that high. It would surprise me to see both teams get into the 90's, but I'm just worried about a Bron/ Allen shootout. I'm still deciding how I will play it.... possibly 1sth instead of game under.

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 03:27 PM

I see ya lurking Danny boy, you going out for the parade?:beer2:

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 03:55 PM

Philly plays- Was trying to decide how I would play this game. In the end I split it up into game over team over & Philly. The Wizards have been flat out bad on the road lately, & and have lost 4 straight road games (2 by over 30 pts each). Philly watched a big lead disappear from them on the road last night @ ATL, after losing by 2 @ home to the Magic. There is always the chance that they come out flat after 2 bad beats, but I think they win this game tonight. They have scored over 97 points in 4 of their last 5 home games, while the Wizards have been allowing pts galore lately. Washington has allowed 96+ pts in 8 of their last 10 games. Also, 5 of their last 6 road games have gone over 197 pts... I think Iggy goes off today & Philly beats this jeckyll/hyde team comfortably tonight.

Bucks team under- I think the Grizz win this game, but laying pts with them doesn't appeal to me. That being said, they do perform better as home faves rather than dogs, as they are 6-4 ats. The Bucks are the definition of a terrible road team. This is just a numbers play, look at the Bucks recent road performances & you'll see why I'm on the team under...

@Philly- 69 pts scored

@ NJ- 80 pts scored

@Toronto- 75 pts scored

@ Hornets- 92 pts scored

@ Utah- 87 pts scored

94.5 looks to be a pretty good number for me to play under.

**Biff_Tannen** · 02-05-2008, 03:58 PM

might be on the cavs tonight as well. so far i think they are my biggest lean.

**Stifler's Mom** · 02-05-2008, 03:58 PM

You know you suck when you're a 4 pt dog to Memphis...

I don't really see too many jumping on the Nets though. They suck ass too however, and backing them against one of the better teams in the league doesn't sound like a stellar idea to me.

Already on Cleveland at -2.5, and the under in that game plus the sixers could also be possible plays for me, although i'm not a big fan of the spot they're in.

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 04:06 PM

Yeah Stif.... The situation the Sixers are in definitely makes it a litle tougher to play on them, but my feeling is that they would be slightly favored had they been rested, so it only gives the line a bit more value, while adding to the public attraction to the Wizards.

Maybe the Nets won't be a trendy dog play, but I still don't have any interest in backing them. Perfect opportunity to pass IMO.

Honestly had Memphis not screwed me the past 10x i've played them, I would lay the points. Redd's out, Mo's hurt, possibly no YI, Villanueva getting his first start in all likelihood. Instead I'lkl just find new ways to lose on their games LOL.

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Biff_Tannen

might be on the cavs tonight as well. so far i think they are my biggest lean.

Honestly I'm a bit surprised that this line isn't -1.5 or so.... books are gonna make you pay for the home team here. Stif got a great line @ -2.5, I was happy to get -3 on reduced juice before the half game out. I suspect the line drops before gametime, but I'll be out.

**Underdog88** · 02-05-2008, 04:12 PM

I also think the Pacers have some value as a home dog, I don't expect the Spurs to all of a sudden start playing great on the road.....

**Daws1089** · 02-05-2008, 04:39 PM

gl udoggie. with the free acct i won from toys for tots, i will probably be playing some team totals as well. i look forward to discussing those.

**TheBeholdah** · 02-05-2008, 06:29 PM

gl 2nite dogg, gonna throw some on the lebrons. gl with the sixers, i was thinking about them 2nite too but cant do it after the way they fell apart last night

**Underdog88** · 02-06-2008, 08:24 AM

I guess I was due for a bad beat last second meaningless three pointer. It just sucks that it turned a would be +7 unit day into a 3-3 -1.35 unit losing day. damn me for not playing the Lakers either :puke:

UDoggie's Tuesday NBA/Discussion