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Working on NJ/GS game and got some really interesting stuff. Thought this stuff was worthy of a post and wanted to pass it along to everyone.
New Jersey: League trend based on start of road trip.
1) Teams that start 0-3 SU on a road trip of 5 or more games are the following in the 4th away game.....
Since 1990 - 81-46-1 ATS (42-86 SU)
Since 2000 - 62-26-1 ATS (34-55 SU)
Since 2004 - 34-11-1 ATS (20-26 SU)
2) Teams that start BOTH 0-3 SU AND 0-3 ATS on a road trip of 5 or more games are the following in the 4th away game.....
1990 - 32-13-1 ATS (20-26 SU)
2000 - 24-5-1 ATS (16-14 SU)
2004 - 13-2-1 ATS (10-6 SU)
3) For #1, if the team also is on 1 or more rest for the 4th away game.....
1990 - 49-31-1 ATS (23-58 SU)
2000 - 38-16-1 ATS (19-36 SU)
2004 - 22-6-1 ATS (11-18 SU)
4) For #2, if the team in on 1 or more rest for the 4th away game.....
1990 - 18-8-1 ATS (11-16 SU)
2000 - 15-2 ATS (10-8 SU)
2004 - 8-1-1 ATS (6-4 SU)
Broke it down from '90-present, '00-present, and '04-present since its been especially good in more recent years.
Golden State: Team-specific to GS this season.....and I'm discounting their 0-6 start since IMO it's not really relevant given their play since. So, since the 0-6 start...
Following a SU loss, GS is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS, including 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home. The SU loss was vs NO, and ATS loss was in a SU win vs LAL. Both of these were at home, but they're still vs 2 top teams.
...Overall, the 2 ATS losses were the only games GS didn't win SU by 8 or more, however, GS won 5 of these games by 8 or 9 points, right at this line.
...At home, besides the NO and LAL games GS's margins of victory were 9, 12, 12, 17, and 30. Besides 2 wins over SA by 9 and 12, the others weren't vs great teams but still good solid wins.
One thing against GS is that they're slightly below avg against the East since the start of last season. NJ has also played GS strongly since '05, with GS going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS with 4 close ones decided by 8 or less and 1 a blowout W by NJ.
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I was probably going to be on GS before I checked that NJ thing. Glad I did, but not sure now. The site I use for public %, ect. is also showing some funny money flow. I'm showing nearly all money on GS to open before a big move for NJ leveled it at about 50/50. Just interesting IMO since it's TNT Thurs... Despite how bad NJ has played and GS's good play after an L, the NJ trend and GS's poor play vs East kind of makes NJ look appealing. NJ's top guys should be more fresh as none played much over 30 min in the Sac game. And teams in NJ situation also off 15+ loss are even slightly better, so the blowout could be a bit of a spark. Anyway, just wanted to pass on that stuff.
GL :thumbs:
New Jersey: League trend based on start of road trip.
1) Teams that start 0-3 SU on a road trip of 5 or more games are the following in the 4th away game.....
Since 1990 - 81-46-1 ATS (42-86 SU)
Since 2000 - 62-26-1 ATS (34-55 SU)
Since 2004 - 34-11-1 ATS (20-26 SU)
2) Teams that start BOTH 0-3 SU AND 0-3 ATS on a road trip of 5 or more games are the following in the 4th away game.....
1990 - 32-13-1 ATS (20-26 SU)
2000 - 24-5-1 ATS (16-14 SU)
2004 - 13-2-1 ATS (10-6 SU)
3) For #1, if the team also is on 1 or more rest for the 4th away game.....
1990 - 49-31-1 ATS (23-58 SU)
2000 - 38-16-1 ATS (19-36 SU)
2004 - 22-6-1 ATS (11-18 SU)
4) For #2, if the team in on 1 or more rest for the 4th away game.....
1990 - 18-8-1 ATS (11-16 SU)
2000 - 15-2 ATS (10-8 SU)
2004 - 8-1-1 ATS (6-4 SU)
Broke it down from '90-present, '00-present, and '04-present since its been especially good in more recent years.
Golden State: Team-specific to GS this season.....and I'm discounting their 0-6 start since IMO it's not really relevant given their play since. So, since the 0-6 start...
Following a SU loss, GS is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS, including 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home. The SU loss was vs NO, and ATS loss was in a SU win vs LAL. Both of these were at home, but they're still vs 2 top teams.
...Overall, the 2 ATS losses were the only games GS didn't win SU by 8 or more, however, GS won 5 of these games by 8 or 9 points, right at this line.
...At home, besides the NO and LAL games GS's margins of victory were 9, 12, 12, 17, and 30. Besides 2 wins over SA by 9 and 12, the others weren't vs great teams but still good solid wins.
One thing against GS is that they're slightly below avg against the East since the start of last season. NJ has also played GS strongly since '05, with GS going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS with 4 close ones decided by 8 or less and 1 a blowout W by NJ.
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I was probably going to be on GS before I checked that NJ thing. Glad I did, but not sure now. The site I use for public %, ect. is also showing some funny money flow. I'm showing nearly all money on GS to open before a big move for NJ leveled it at about 50/50. Just interesting IMO since it's TNT Thurs... Despite how bad NJ has played and GS's good play after an L, the NJ trend and GS's poor play vs East kind of makes NJ look appealing. NJ's top guys should be more fresh as none played much over 30 min in the Sac game. And teams in NJ situation also off 15+ loss are even slightly better, so the blowout could be a bit of a spark. Anyway, just wanted to pass on that stuff.
GL :thumbs:
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