Tweet
NBA 323-316-4 +39.18 units
Haven't played anything just yet, thought we could get a little discussion going.... some preliminary thoughts...
Piston/Spurs- Pistons fresh off a 16 pt beatdown @ Dallas, where the Mavs finally looked like the team we saw tear through the regular season last year. That makes 2 straight losses for the Stones, who got handed a 7 pt loss by the Celtics at home. Detroit looked a bit discombobulated defensively, & that won't fly against the Spurs. The Spurs are at home with 2 days rest, & off a tough ot loss @ GS. I really can't think of a reason why you would fade the Spurs at home. As good a team as the Pistons are, it's not like they've been lighting up the West on the road....
@ Sea w 107-103
@ Port L 94-102
@ GS w 111-104
@ LaL L 91-103
@ Sac L 95-105
@ NO w 91-76
@ Mem w 113-103
@ Hous L 77-80
@ Dal L 86-102
So the Piston are 5-4 su on the road vs. the West, with just 2 wins vs teams with winning records. They only beat the Sonics by 4 pts. I don't think they will beat the Spurs today. I do think it could be a very closely played game though... I'm currently leaning towards laying the juice on the moneyline. It's extremely rare for me to do this, but I'm looking at it like this. A team that's 17-2 at home vs. a team that's 2-4 vs. West coast teams with a winning record. -155 doesn't look so bad for a 17-2 home team. 3.5 could very well come into play....Last season Detroit lost @ SA 90-89, & @ home 90-81. Close games. This would also fit into the totals system- these two combined average 197.5, & the line is set at 180.5, which would normally be an automatic play for me. However, I'm put off by the fact that just 1 of the last 9 home games for the Spurs have fell under that number. Also 6 of the Piston's last 8 have gone over that number, so I'm a bit hesitant to jump on the under....
Phx/Utah- Lots of factors here- the Suns team has the flu, Hill is out for a couple weeks along with Nash missing the trip. AK47 looks to be out for Utah. The line has jumped from an opener of -3 to -6. The total has dropped from 224.5 down to 219.5. While I certainly agree with the drop in the total due to Nash's absence, I think the line has gotten a bit out of hand. The Suns are still a 13-6 road team, & 5 of their 10 losses have been by 6 pts or less. Utah is definitely a very good home team, but I won't lay 6 with them vs a team that IMO is better than them... Regarding the total, I'm a bit perplexed as to why the total was set so high in the first place. Some resons why the under may be a play for me....
Last meeting @ Phx totaled 201 with Nash in. Utah shot 44%/Phx 46%, which to me shows that it wasn't just a poor shooting night.
The Suns have been on an over run, with the last 3 totals going over (Pacers, Nuggets, Hornets), but all 3 were played at home. The Suns last 6 games on the road?
@ Sac 209 pts
@ LAC 196 pts
@ LAL 237 pts
@ Dal 213 pts
@ SaS 195 pts
@ NoH 199 pts
So the total has gone over 213 1x in the last 6 road games, vs the Lakers. In this game, the Lakers shot 53% & were 27-32 from the ft line. The Suns shot 47% & 41% from 3 pt land. Pretty high % all around I would say.
Lastly, I looked at Utah's totals at home. Something jumped out at me... how many times did they get over this number at home?
1 time! They combined with GS for 243 pts, as Utah shot 63%, GS shot 50%, & both teams combined were 25-47 from behind the 3 pt line. I believe that's what you would call an anomaly....
Haven't looked into the other game yet, but initial lean goes to......yup you guessed it Daws- the Grizz.
Haven't played anything just yet, thought we could get a little discussion going.... some preliminary thoughts...
Piston/Spurs- Pistons fresh off a 16 pt beatdown @ Dallas, where the Mavs finally looked like the team we saw tear through the regular season last year. That makes 2 straight losses for the Stones, who got handed a 7 pt loss by the Celtics at home. Detroit looked a bit discombobulated defensively, & that won't fly against the Spurs. The Spurs are at home with 2 days rest, & off a tough ot loss @ GS. I really can't think of a reason why you would fade the Spurs at home. As good a team as the Pistons are, it's not like they've been lighting up the West on the road....
@ Sea w 107-103
@ Port L 94-102
@ GS w 111-104
@ LaL L 91-103
@ Sac L 95-105
@ NO w 91-76
@ Mem w 113-103
@ Hous L 77-80
@ Dal L 86-102
So the Piston are 5-4 su on the road vs. the West, with just 2 wins vs teams with winning records. They only beat the Sonics by 4 pts. I don't think they will beat the Spurs today. I do think it could be a very closely played game though... I'm currently leaning towards laying the juice on the moneyline. It's extremely rare for me to do this, but I'm looking at it like this. A team that's 17-2 at home vs. a team that's 2-4 vs. West coast teams with a winning record. -155 doesn't look so bad for a 17-2 home team. 3.5 could very well come into play....Last season Detroit lost @ SA 90-89, & @ home 90-81. Close games. This would also fit into the totals system- these two combined average 197.5, & the line is set at 180.5, which would normally be an automatic play for me. However, I'm put off by the fact that just 1 of the last 9 home games for the Spurs have fell under that number. Also 6 of the Piston's last 8 have gone over that number, so I'm a bit hesitant to jump on the under....
Phx/Utah- Lots of factors here- the Suns team has the flu, Hill is out for a couple weeks along with Nash missing the trip. AK47 looks to be out for Utah. The line has jumped from an opener of -3 to -6. The total has dropped from 224.5 down to 219.5. While I certainly agree with the drop in the total due to Nash's absence, I think the line has gotten a bit out of hand. The Suns are still a 13-6 road team, & 5 of their 10 losses have been by 6 pts or less. Utah is definitely a very good home team, but I won't lay 6 with them vs a team that IMO is better than them... Regarding the total, I'm a bit perplexed as to why the total was set so high in the first place. Some resons why the under may be a play for me....
Last meeting @ Phx totaled 201 with Nash in. Utah shot 44%/Phx 46%, which to me shows that it wasn't just a poor shooting night.
The Suns have been on an over run, with the last 3 totals going over (Pacers, Nuggets, Hornets), but all 3 were played at home. The Suns last 6 games on the road?
@ Sac 209 pts
@ LAC 196 pts
@ LAL 237 pts
@ Dal 213 pts
@ SaS 195 pts
@ NoH 199 pts
So the total has gone over 213 1x in the last 6 road games, vs the Lakers. In this game, the Lakers shot 53% & were 27-32 from the ft line. The Suns shot 47% & 41% from 3 pt land. Pretty high % all around I would say.
Lastly, I looked at Utah's totals at home. Something jumped out at me... how many times did they get over this number at home?
1 time! They combined with GS for 243 pts, as Utah shot 63%, GS shot 50%, & both teams combined were 25-47 from behind the 3 pt line. I believe that's what you would call an anomaly....
Haven't looked into the other game yet, but initial lean goes to......yup you guessed it Daws- the Grizz.
Comment