UDoggie's Monday Spider Tatts

**Texas hook 'em** · 12-17-2007, 11:53 AM

GL UD, I'll be riding the blazers until the wheels come off

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 11:57 AM

Warriors/Memphis over- One of my favorite games of the year. Vegas couldn't set this line high enough, honestly I didn't even care what the number was, I was on the over. The Warriors are off a blowout loss @ Detroit, which was just a horrible spot for them to be in with the early spot after an emotional win over the Lakers. Now they are playing their 2nd game of this 5 game roadie. Wait, an over on this high of a number? But the Warriors are on a b2b? Well, Nellie was smart & basically waved the white flag in the 2ndh of the game yesterday, saving their legs for tonight. Nobody played over 30 minutes, & only 1 starter (Monta Ellis) played over 24 minutes. This is a game where b2b means nothing. GS lost Nov 2 to the Clippers, then played a b2b @ Utah & that game totaled 243 points. Last season they played @ Memphis on a b2b.... the result was a Grizzlies 144-135 win! 3 of the last 4 meetings went over this number, with 1 falling just short @ 220 because of a 2ndh Grizz collapse. As with any total, the key is to determine what pace the game will likely be played at. There's no way to determine how well teams will shoot percentage wise. Safe to say the pace here will be breakneck. I expect both teams to be in the high 90's in fg attempts, with an additional 24+ 3-pt attempts. Quick transitions result in fast breaks, outnumbered defensive players & easy layups. In the aforementioned game, both teams combined for 61 fast break points! Memphis is off a road win in Orlando, were they totaled 242 pts. Memphis overs are solid at home vs. teams that run. Totals for this season for Memphis home games vs. running teams...

Wizards- 242

Sonics- 233

Pacers- 232

I think both teams get into the 120's, & would lean Memphis if Gasol was playing. I don't think I'll be on a side here though, would rather just watch the points pile up.

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 12:34 PM

Thanks Hook em :thumbs:

Suns- Here I go fading the best team in the NBA again! But do I really need to explain why I'm on this? R-E-V-E-N-G-E. You can bet the Suns have had this game circled since the suspensions last year, this may as well be a playoff game for them. This is the ultimate motivation game, but there are several other factors that made it a play. First, the Suns are off a loss @ NO, while the Spurs are off a blowout win vs. the Nuggets. Parker is likely out again, which would mean Vaughn will be guarding Nash. Total mismatch there, Nash won't have to worry too much about defending Vaughn (who averages under 5 ppg). I think Nash has his way tonight, & should be able to feed his teammates. I expect a combination of Marion & Bell harassing Manu, & would be surprised if he freaked out like he did early last week. No Elson as well for the Spurs, so Amare will have it a bit easier in the paint. Big indication of what vegas is thinking by setting such a short number. I think this is one of the maybe 4 games the Spurs will lose at home, & it seems as if everything has fallen into place for the Suns here. Revenge from the playoffs, with a chance to give the Spurs their first home loss. I was hoping for a 4, really just for moneyline value, but I opted for +2+100 over +115. Curious to see what Q-unit thinks....

**Stifler's Mom** · 12-17-2007, 12:45 PM

Agree 100% with you thoughts on the Memphis/Golden Shower total, but why the Suns? I realize SA is going to eventually lose at home, but why tonight? I know you always have good reasoning, and I was going to play SA, so I figured I'd ask in case I was missing something important, as I do agree that the SA -2 looks a little low. I figured it should be more like -4 or so.

**Stifler's Mom** · 12-17-2007, 12:45 PM

LOL, you added it just as i posted :thumbs:

**Stifler's Mom** · 12-17-2007, 12:48 PM

Funny how we were both thinking the same thing about the line....that the -2 is a bit low and it should probably be -4 or so, all things equal.

I might reconsider, as I feel like a square taking the Spurs at only -2 at home. Looks WAY too easy....

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 12:50 PM

Anyone with thoughts feel free to post them. This forum could use some discussion.

Looking at the card, I really can't make a case for many faves. Really the only one I am thinking of playing is the Mavericks. Cashed the ML on them vs. Houston, & think they have finally found their defense. Now that they are healthy, it could be time for them to go on a run. Getting them on a relatively short line at home vs. Orlando (who isn't exactly playing good ball right now) looks very playable. Everyone was making a big deal about the Magic's great play on the road, but look at who they played! Kudos to them for wins @NO & GS, but the rest were very pedestrian teams that the Magic should beat! Rashard's injury has effected them big time, waiting to see what the deal is there....

**SRN1985** · 12-17-2007, 12:55 PM

What you think about Suns/spurs over as I already played, thinking they average around 50 points a quarter

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

Funny how we were both thinking the same thing about the line....that the -2 is a bit low and it should probably be -4 or so, all things equal.

I might reconsider, as I feel like a square taking the Spurs at only -2 at home. Looks WAY too easy....

For me this is 70% revenge, 15% situation (Spurs off blowout), 15% injuries. I guess one could argue that the line would in fact be -4 if injuries weren't factored in. I really don't think the Spurs will be entirely public tonight. I haven't checked out any numbers yet, but I do think there will be money coming in on both sides. Disclaimer: I have been doing way better playing totals than sides the past week, so this could very well be a Spurs win. However, my gut says Suns. Hopefully it's not just gas LoL.

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by SRN1985

What you think about Suns/spurs over as I already played, thinking they average around 50 points a quarter

Personally this is how I look at totals.... the first thing I do is make my own line. The easiest way to estimate what a line would be is to add both teams average points scored together. That will give you a starting point on what the line should be set around. Next look at other factors, such as recent totals, home/road splits, past matchups between these teams (although I don't go back anymore than a half season, & only if the teams are relatively unchanged). I try to figure out what pace the game will likely be played at. Then I always like to check out line moves in relation to what the public may be thinking. In the end if everything comes together & it looks like I have an advantage with the line, it becomes a play. Pretty basic really, but it's given me pretty good results.

I had this one at around 210 based on both teams averages. Then, looking at the Spurs totals at home, I would have to drop it 4 pts or so. The Spurs have played 1 home game that totaled over 203 pts. It was vs. Orlando, & they totaled 238 points. However, both teams shot very efficiently (Orl shot 56% & SA shot 51%), so it gives me pause playing the over. 2 other times the Spurs played to 203 (vs. Wash & Port), & in both instances a team shot higher than 50%, & both teams shot 46% or higher. That tells me that it was good shooting & not pace that brought the total up. From the Spurs PO, it's best for them to play their game @ home which is generally a slow paced deliberate defensive-minded game. I see that being their gameplan tonight, as they definitely don't want to get into a running game with the Suns. I'm not saying the under is the play, as both teams could very well shoot 50% tonight, but I am saying that I don't feel like the pace will favor an over. With it set at 203, I think it will be very close either way, so it's a no play for me.

I hoipe that heps you out.

**SRN1985** · 12-17-2007, 01:31 PM

Gotcha:thumbs:

I like the suns to win as well, with that being said, I rarely ever seem them play down to anyone else's level and feel that they are gonna do what they do best and thats run and score...

Thx for the write-ups

**wsox08** · 12-17-2007, 02:19 PM

Do you have any thoughts on the Portland-NO total?

Port playing 5th game in 7 days, NO playing 3rd in 4 nights.

and I think Aldridge might return tonight.

edit: I see you already have the total for Port-NO.. oops

and I like the Jazz because they normally play well vs. ATL, but should they just be avoided until they break out of their slump?

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by wsox08

and I like the Jazz because they normally play well vs. ATL, but should they just be avoided until they break out of their slump?

I really don't like that game. I've pretty much sworn off road faves, especially ones like the Jazz that have been slumping recently. Laying chalk with a team that is 2-8 in their last 10 road games doesn't really peak my interest. Lean to the under, as just 1 of the Hawk's last 14 games have gone over 190 total pts. If you like Utah, maybe the Hawks team total would be the better option. In the Hawk's home losses 4 of 6 have been by less than 91 pts. The 2 taht were over? 1 was a double ot loss to Seattle, a faster paced team. The other was to detroit who shot 51%.

Heat/Wolves- Regarding the side, the fact that Miami is favored by 9 pts is downright laughable. Minnesota has more road wins than the Heat have home wins. Even if the Heat were up by DD the whole game, I doubt they can play a full 4 quarters on defense. The Wolves are 6-2 ats in their last 8 road games, so throwing the 9 out there looks too easy to me. I opted for the over instead. The Heat have allowed 104 or more pts in 6 of their last 7 games. The sole game they didn't? 94 pts allowed to the Clips. I think this is another game where both teams should be able to get to the century mark, as neither will be too involved defensively. Linesmakers have this set higher than I expected, & we have some reverse line movement, which makes me like the play even more.

Blazers- Really this isn't the best of spots for the Blazers, & I don't recommend anyone to tail this play. They are on a b2b coming off a blowout win in Denver. There could be a fatigue factor, as they are playing their 5th in 7 games. As Wsox pointed out, the Hornets are also playing their 3rd in 4, & they are generally a slower paced, defensive team to begin with. This is a play that's based on a couple things. First, the Blazers are streaking, & have won me loot & pretty much singlehandedly got me out of my slump. Roy has been playing great, & NO is in letdown mode after a road win vs. the Suns. Also this is a series where the home team is generally the winner, 2 times already this season. I expect a slower paced, closely played game here. Also on the under, as just 4 of the Hornet's 13 road games have gone over a total of 183....

**Underdog88** · 12-17-2007, 03:12 PM

That about does it, stupid parlay time....

Hawks team u93.5
Bucks+7.5
Suns/Spurs u203.5
Knicks team o51 1sth
Mavs-2 1stq

.5 to win 12.17 units

GLTA today :thumbs:

UDoggie's Monday Spider Tatts