Cavorca NBA 11/26 Case of the Mondays.....

[cavorca12]

Monday Plays:

Orlando at Portland Under 199 ..... 0.5 Unit
Orlando 1Q -1.5 ..... 0.5 Unit
Phoenix at Golden State 1H Over 118 ..... 0.75 Unit
Phoenix at Golden State Over 229 ..... 0.75 Unit
Sacramento 1H +3.5 ..... 0.75 Unit
Sacramento +7 (-120) ..... 1.75 Units
Sacramento ML +240 ..... 0.5 Unit
San Antonio at Sacramento Under 194.5 ..... 0.75 Unit



BOL everyone! :beerbang:

[cavorca12]

Well, I got tired of waiting for Sac +7. It wasn't coming, so I bought it. This might be the most I've had on one night so far this season, not sure, but I'm going with my read. We will see if it pays off.

Oh, and I never had time to post any of my reasoning... Basically, starting Udrih and Artest has improved the team a lot IMO. Garcia, Salmons great guys to be able to bring off bench. Udrih and Artest have started 4 games together, and in those Sac allows 26.8% 3p%, which is huge against Spurs since I think that's why they've been doing so well. Udrih former Spur, so he'll come to play and knows SA and Parker well. Sac very good home dog of 5 or more and have good ats in the range of this total. Besides SA's 5 in 7 and b2b aways, teams having won 4 in a row ats and playing away are 45% ats since '00. If favored, only 27-56-1, and if on 0 rest, only 7-14-1. If 4 in a row ats, fav, and in 2nd away game, just 6-35-1 ats (2-10-1 ats on 0 rest). If won 3 or more in a row ats, fav, and in 2nd away, just 19-56-1 ats (5-19-1 ats on 0 rest). Basically, it's not a good broad trend for SA and gets worse and worse. I know reliability/predictive significance drops with each added variable, but I think it holds up enough and is relatively strong for Sac. Lots of things in their favor, but they still go out and play the game for a reason! Anything can happen.


GL tonight!

[Underdog88]

Nice day, & solid analysis :thumbs: