Futures Scoring Title Prop Question

[CuseFan10]

Was looking at the scoring title prop for this upcoming season and saw something that kind of jumps out at me. Barring injury, I think there are only two guys who can win the scoring title - Kobe Bryant or Gilbert Arenas.

***Kobe is the favorite at 3 to 1 (which I think is pretty good odds since he won't lose the scoring title if he's healthy, even if he does get traded).

***Gilbert is 15 to 2 which I think is an absolute phenomenal value, IMHO.

If you bet the two of them, obviously if one wins you are guaranteed at least a 1 unit payoff. Now, the only guys I think that can make an outside run at the scoring title (in order) are:

Carmelo Anthony 15 to 2
Dwayne Wade 8 to 1
LeBron James 8 to 1
Amare Stoudemire 8 to 1
Joe Johnson 15 to 1

I can dismiss them for many reasons, but I won't get into that now. I don't see any of them scoring the 28-30ppg necessary to overtake Arenas and/or Bryant. The only one selfish enough to do it IMHO is Carmelo but he has Iverson as a running mate.

Was thinking of putting 3 units each on Kobe and Gilbert... Thoughts?

PS - I'm definitely putting a couple units on Gilbert regardless at 7.5 to 1.

[CuseFan10]

Similarly, Steve Nash is 2 to 1 to win the assist title and the only way he doesn't win it is if he gets hurt and doesn't qualify. Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Jason Kidd aren't going to average over 10 assists a game on those teams in those systems.

Might as well top this off with the rebounding numbers. It's a nice cluster****, but if you pick the right guy then you get decent odds:

Kevin Garnett 4 to 1
Dwight Howard 5 to 1
Marcus Camby 8 to 1
Tyson Chandler 10 to 1
Al Jefferson 14 to 1 (sleeper in my eyes for this)

KG and Dwight obviously are the faves at just under 13rpg should win it

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Interesting stuff.

Wondering...what is your dismissal reasons for Lebron? With the one-man show in Cleveland, I think he's the only one that could challenge Kobe/Gilbert?

As for the rebounders...gotta love KG with Pierce and Allen chucking up all those shots!

[CuseFan10]

I don't think LeBron is selfish enough to score 30ppg again, plus his free throw shooting KILLS him and he's not exactly a good 3 point shooter yet either. If he ironed out his woes from the FT line then he's probably neck and neck with Kobe. He's so worried about the total vision and perception of his game that I don't think he's developed that killer instinct that he showed against Detroit (on a night in and night out basis). I also think if they show up ever to the team that Pavlovic and Varejeo's numbers will increase significantly this season. He is the chief competitor I agree, though.

Kobe and Gilbert seem they yearn to win scoring titles (much like Iverson used to), and LeBron doesn't seem to give a damn about it, IMHO.

I am definitely playing Nash at 2 to 1.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Kobe and Gilbert seem they yearn to will scoring titles (much like Iverson used to), and LeBron doesn't seem to give a damn about it, IMHO.

Yeah...I agree...

[DevilsAdvokt]

What about the odds on these 3 guys:

Micheal Redd
Dirk Nowitzski
Tracy Mcgrady

these 3 have potential to have big scoring seasons this year maybe


right now best bet has to be kobe
won last 2 years
and got top 4 last 4 years

[Underdog88]

Might as well top this off with the rebounding numbers. It's a nice cluster****, but if you pick the right guy then you get decent odds:

Dwight Howard 5 to 1

Howard at 5 to 1 looks damn good IMO. :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

I think whoever wins this is going to have the most spider web tatoos and the longest list on his arm of chicks he's knocked up.

[Q-Unit]

I agree about Dwight, and Kobe/Gilbert.

as for devil:

T-Mac is damaged goods, he's as natural a scorer as there is, but he has a balky back, hardly ever plays all 82 games.

Nowitski is on a team oriented system, this wont happen.

Michael Redd is just a 3 point/Jump shot specialist, couldnt create his own shot or go to the basket.

good choices though, but not even close IMO to Gilbert and Kobe.

[CuseFan10]

I agree about Dwight, and Kobe/Gilbert.

as for devil:

T-Mac is damaged goods, he's as natural a scorer as there is, but he has a balky back, hardly ever plays all 82 games.

Nowitski is on a team oriented system, this wont happen.

Michael Redd is just a 3 point/Jump shot specialist, couldnt create his own shot or go to the basket.

good choices though, but not even close IMO to Gilbert and Kobe.

Couldn't have said it better myself. None of them have a snowball's chance in hell of outscoring gunners like Kobe or Arenas (or Carmelo). I believe Dirk was like 15 to 1, Redd and Me-Mac were higher, maybe 30 to 1 or thereabouts. Me-Mac won't even lead his own team in scoring, Yao Ming will. Adelman's system is not suited at all for Me-Mac. It involved moving the ball and sharing it, a concept Tracy is blind to.

UDogg = I like Howard too over Garnett, but honestly it's just a guess between those guys. The yboth could grab 16-17rpg if they really wanted too. I like Jefferson too, but I won't bet the rebounds I don't think.

[FlyersFan]

Spider Web tatoo season is almost here........:beerbang:

[DevilsAdvokt]

I kinda disagree on the me-mac situation...


rick adelman is a better coach for me-mac... he is probably as healthy this year as he ever has been while on houston... and rick is a more up tempo scoring points coach....
look at the Kings and Blazers ... i think yao stats will go down this year from previous...

just curious on the other 2 since they breached top 10 them both past couple years... figured if payout was worth a bet

[Q-Unit]

I kinda disagree on the me-mac situation...


rick adelman is a better coach for me-mac... he is probably as healthy this year as he ever has been while on houston... and rick is a more up tempo scoring points coach....
look at the Kings and Blazers ... i think yao stats will go down this year from previous...

just curious on the other 2 since they breached top 10 them both past couple years... figured if payout was worth a bet

thats a good point, but they need a real PG for that to possibly happen, bringing back franchise shows you how desperate or shallow the pond is.

I'm a fan of T-Mac, at least more so than his cousin, but with Yao (if a healthy one), I think his numbers will take a hit. Also at this stage of his career I'm willing to bet he wants to get out of that first round more than anything.

but either way i wouldnt mind at all seeing T-Mac win the scoring title.

:thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

thats a good point, but they need a real PG for that to possibly happen, bringing back franchise shows you how desperate or shallow the pond is.

I'm a fan of T-Mac, at least more so than his cousin, but with Yao (if a healthy one), I think his numbers will take a hit. Also at this stage of his career I'm willing to bet he wants to get out of that first round more than anything.

but either way i wouldnt mind at all seeing T-Mac win the scoring title.

:thumbs:

on the subject of the rockets, if they improve vastly offensively under Adelman without losing what they accomplished last year defensively, they are one sleeper I really like to make some noise in the west.

but Adelman and defense don't really go together so its wishful thinking :beer2:

[BlazerAndy]

What about the odds on these 3 guys:

Micheal Redd
Dirk Nowitzski
Tracy Mcgrady

these 3 have potential to have big scoring seasons this year maybe


right now best bet has to be kobe
won last 2 years
and got top 4 last 4 years

Beat me to the punch. What are Redd's odds? I could see him heating up and averaging 30+ PPG. He missed quite a few games last year if I remember correctly. A healthy Redd coming off of a dynamic experience with the US Mens Senior National Team might be worth considering.