Darlington prop and matchup

[RBD]

It's Sunday, time for another day of getting a few bets in and relaxing and yelling at my TV.


Bet #1, NASCAR matchup

Hamlin -105 Ov Blaney

After taking a few weeks off because the circuit was at tracks that I find too boring to watch, I'm back today with another NASCAR matchup.

NASCAR returns to Darlington for the Goodyear 400. Our very own Ms. Veronica Vroom likes Denny Hamlin to win so I searched for a matchup using him against one of the drivers who I think is in for a bad day.
And my notes have Ryan Blaney circled as that man.

Most books have Blaney as the their third choice to win today at approximate odds of 6-1, and Hamlin right behind him as the fourth choice at 7-1. But Blaney has only had three top tens in 16 races at Darlington and zero top fives. I think he's overpriced - AND over matched in a head-to-head in this match up with Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin won last week at Martinsville and it's difficult to win two aces in a row but I don't need him to win, I just need him to beat Blaney.
That's why I like head to head matchups when betting on NASCAR.


Bet #2, NASCAR prop

Number of Caution Flags Ov 8', +110

I knew the number of caution flags for Darlington would be higher than it's been for other races this season (average of 5') but I was hoping I could get a 7'. At 8' the books set this one just above the track average of 7.6 per race.

I don't like the number but I'm betting it anyway.
Every once in awhile it's okay to disregard stats and bet for something you want to root for, something that gives you an interest in what you're going to watch, something you want to see happen.
It's like when you make a homer bet and put your money on your favorite team regardless of the situation, just because you want to root for them to win.
And that's what this bet is for me - lines and stats be damned, I want to see a couple crashes today, a couple tire blowouts, a couple kisses with the wall, and a blown engine or two, all resulting in caution flags coming out at the track nicknamed, "The Race Too Tough to Tame."

[RBD]

Update #1:
Just four laps in and Larson's in a spin.
Caution flag number one.
Eight to go.

Update #2:
Lap number 24, and Hocevar kisses the wall.
Flag number two
Seven to go.

Update #3:
Hocevar again.
Looking at the replay, I'm not sure if he got loose or if he got nudged from behind.
Flag number three.
Six to go.

Matchup update - Hamlin's car not looking too good, Blaney's car is. I'm about seven drivers back. Way early though.

Stage one is over and with three cautions flags already in and two stages left I'm on pace for nine.

Update #4:
Kezlowski goes sideways but he rights himself and gets control, no caution, damn!
Great camera work catches a wheel nut flying off his tire on a slow-mo replay.

Not sure how it happened (nodded out) but Blaney is down a lap so my matchup looks good.
And as I'm writing this they're in a caution to retrieve the wheel nut off the track.
Flag number four.
Five to go.

Update #5:
Blaney got back on the lead lap and was within two of Hamlin but has trouble on pit road between stages and loses a bunch of spots.

And the caution flag is out again as Berry gets loose and spins out. This is good news for me as he was my second choice for a matchup winner (against Cindric) today but I opted for Hamlin against Blaney instead, good move!

The announcer just said it's the 7th caution of the day but I've got it as the fifth - did I nod off again??
(Sunday afternoon is prime time for nappin'.)

And the booth just repeated it, "We're in the seventh caution lap of the day.".
With 94 laps to go I only need two more.
I feel pretty good about getting one in the final laps when someone usually gets desperate and does something stupid.
If I'm correct, I need one in the next 40 to 50 laps and I'll be in a good position to hit 9 and get the Over 8'.


With 51 laps to go this is going to be a tough matchup to win, Blaney clearly has one of the best cars on the track.
Despite kissing the wall, pit road trouble, and being 13 or 14 cars behind third place Hamlin late in the race, he's worked his way back up to fourth place, one behind Hamlin.