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4-5 -.9 units, which I am more than ok with considering I lost a 5 unit play that was juiced -125! Serves me right for playing a stupid first 5. On to today!
Jays/R's o10-105
Strohs/Doyers u6.5+173
A-holes/Moto City Kitties o11+107
2 units each
Tor/KC over- WTF am I doing playing an over in a Jays road game? After all, they are 12-0-2 to the under in their last 14 road games. Well I've been riding their unders for quite some time now, & IMO it's a good opportunity to jump off. First off, although the Jays may win, I simply don't see the logic in laying chalk on a 24-35 road team. KC is 7-6 @ home 2ndh/ Jays are 7-10 on the road, really not enough for me to back Odalis... especially with his 1.66 WHIP & an opp ba of .322 @ home. 4 of his last 5 home starts have produced totals of 11 or more, & the Jays hit .293 vs. lefties. I also think that Litsch can be hit as well- a 1.51 WHIP & opp ba of .330 away... IMO he's a promising young pitcher, but as his innings pitched increases, I have a feeling he will struggle a bit. I also think his 2.51 road era is a bit misleading, as in his 5 starts he has given up 38 hits in 28.2 ip....
Hous/LAD under- selling a point on an already low total is probably not a good idea, but at +173 I have to do it. I like Oswalt to pitch well, as in his past 4 games he's allowed just 2 er in 25 ip! He has been hit around in road starts, but I just don't think the Dodgers are the team to do it. The Dodgers have scored 19 runs in their last 10 games (7 of them in one game), & have only scored over 2 runs in 2 games during that stretch. Billingsley has pitched well with a 1.28 WHIP & an opp ba. of .228 @ home. Despite that he's lost his last 2 outings 1-0, thanks to LA's stellar hitting. Houston is only hitting .249 on the road, & are just 5-10 away in the 2ndh. Quite puzzling to me that the Dodgers team total is 3.5-130 juiced to the over given these stats. I think it could very well be a pitchers duel, so I'll take Oswalt/Billingsley u6.5+173 & hope for crappy offense.
Det/A's over- It doesn't get any more square than this, but the numbers support it. Detroit has seemingly woken from their slumber, & Gaudin has been a good fade of mine for 3 games now. In just 6 games, his era has risen from a 2.88 to a 4.18! In his last 4 road games he's allowed 21 er in 20.2 ip. He is also 2nd in the AL in BB with 72, so I expect a bunch of baserunners for the Tigers today. On the other hand, I just can't lay chalk with Durbin on the mound.... I would expect no more than 5 innings from him, & that's simply too much time for the Tigers pen to do what they do best- give up runs. Best for me to just root for a ton of scoring....
Still looking into a couple- Seems as if most want no part of Santana due to the current state of the Twins, but something tells me he gets it done today. Possible play on the Pirates 2nd game, but I'm not forcing anything. I'm sure there will be plenty of people on the O's with all that "value", but I simply can't play against the Yankees right now. Not a fan of playing a rl & still laying juice, so I'll probably stay away there. I think the best chance of a good dog play could be the D-Rays, but Wakefield's dominance of them is a bit much to swallow..... GLTA today
Jays/R's o10-105
Strohs/Doyers u6.5+173
A-holes/Moto City Kitties o11+107
2 units each
Tor/KC over- WTF am I doing playing an over in a Jays road game? After all, they are 12-0-2 to the under in their last 14 road games. Well I've been riding their unders for quite some time now, & IMO it's a good opportunity to jump off. First off, although the Jays may win, I simply don't see the logic in laying chalk on a 24-35 road team. KC is 7-6 @ home 2ndh/ Jays are 7-10 on the road, really not enough for me to back Odalis... especially with his 1.66 WHIP & an opp ba of .322 @ home. 4 of his last 5 home starts have produced totals of 11 or more, & the Jays hit .293 vs. lefties. I also think that Litsch can be hit as well- a 1.51 WHIP & opp ba of .330 away... IMO he's a promising young pitcher, but as his innings pitched increases, I have a feeling he will struggle a bit. I also think his 2.51 road era is a bit misleading, as in his 5 starts he has given up 38 hits in 28.2 ip....
Hous/LAD under- selling a point on an already low total is probably not a good idea, but at +173 I have to do it. I like Oswalt to pitch well, as in his past 4 games he's allowed just 2 er in 25 ip! He has been hit around in road starts, but I just don't think the Dodgers are the team to do it. The Dodgers have scored 19 runs in their last 10 games (7 of them in one game), & have only scored over 2 runs in 2 games during that stretch. Billingsley has pitched well with a 1.28 WHIP & an opp ba. of .228 @ home. Despite that he's lost his last 2 outings 1-0, thanks to LA's stellar hitting. Houston is only hitting .249 on the road, & are just 5-10 away in the 2ndh. Quite puzzling to me that the Dodgers team total is 3.5-130 juiced to the over given these stats. I think it could very well be a pitchers duel, so I'll take Oswalt/Billingsley u6.5+173 & hope for crappy offense.
Det/A's over- It doesn't get any more square than this, but the numbers support it. Detroit has seemingly woken from their slumber, & Gaudin has been a good fade of mine for 3 games now. In just 6 games, his era has risen from a 2.88 to a 4.18! In his last 4 road games he's allowed 21 er in 20.2 ip. He is also 2nd in the AL in BB with 72, so I expect a bunch of baserunners for the Tigers today. On the other hand, I just can't lay chalk with Durbin on the mound.... I would expect no more than 5 innings from him, & that's simply too much time for the Tigers pen to do what they do best- give up runs. Best for me to just root for a ton of scoring....
Still looking into a couple- Seems as if most want no part of Santana due to the current state of the Twins, but something tells me he gets it done today. Possible play on the Pirates 2nd game, but I'm not forcing anything. I'm sure there will be plenty of people on the O's with all that "value", but I simply can't play against the Yankees right now. Not a fan of playing a rl & still laying juice, so I'll probably stay away there. I think the best chance of a good dog play could be the D-Rays, but Wakefield's dominance of them is a bit much to swallow..... GLTA today
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