Saturday plays

[mikey_flyballs]

After last night - I lost with the White Sox +168, second time this week I've lost with them as a heavy dog - it's time for me to limit my ML plays to a max of +150, I think (I'd love to hear anyone else's thoughts on this). Today, I'm going to start off with a total, as this is where I've had more success in the past. Here goes:

Cleveland at KC UNDER 8 (+102). Tomlin has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball (FIP 5 runs lower than ERA) and with a matchup vs. a weak offense, it's time for his #s to normalize. Vargas has been so good at home so far, and Cleveland doesn't hit lefties. KC's pen has been solid at home and Cleveland's pen hasn't given up much anywhere. Neither team hits much with men in scoring position, either. I like how the factors add up for the under.

May add more later.

YTD 5-7, -1.59 units.

[mikey_flyballs]

Adding:

St. Louis at Atlanta OVER 8.5. Teheran is in poor form his last 3 starts, giving up too many walks. This burned him in 2 of those starts. He also seems uncomfortable in his new ballpark so far. In fact, the entire Atl staff has been beat up lately. Leake is due for a regression to the mean. Also, we have two BAD bullpens here. We're not talking about two good defenses, either (Stl has been esp. bad in the field, surprisingly).

All that said, watch it be a 1-0 game. :laughing: