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ytd 356-374 (+10.69 units)
Tribe -130
Nice story with Lester coming back, but this is about making $$$. How long is he gonna go? Cleveland is an excellent home team (34-15), and Westbrook has good numbers at home as well, despite sucking on the road. Boston hasn't done much lately other than beat up on the horrible White Sox, who IMO are one of the absolute worst teams in MLB. Big whoop. The Tribe is favored here for a reason.
Jays +135
Jays pitching has been great, and they hit LHP very well (.292 overall and .302 at home). I know it's Santana i'm going against, but the Jays ability to hit LHP shows a bit in his record vs TOR (2-3, 4.15 ERA) and with the Jays record and stats vs LHP, combined with the way their pitching has been shutting people down, I'm certainly getting the right price to make this play.
Detroit -103
IMO this is a sweet price at which to fade the White Sux, no matter who they're playing, but with baseball's best team (record wise - they're % points better than BOS) and add in that Detroit hits lefites at a .299 clip, while Chicago isn't so hot at .236, it becomes a no brainer for me to make this play on the value alone. I realize Buehrle is more experienced than Miller, and that either one of these blowass bullpens could blow up in this one, but those things aren't enough to scare me off this one.
Texas -120
Millwood has improved, and Texas is improving as well. They're starting to hit and their bullpen has been strong. Ramirez has a double digit road ERA and he's facing a team who can hit. What more do i need?
Colorado -130
Maddux has more or less gotten lit up lately minus his last start where he pitched 5 scoreless innings against the Mets. That's never a good sign when your offense has trouble scoring and your pitching in Colorado. A little chalky, but again, I believe the Rocks are favored for good reason here, despite having a worse record than SD.
Arizona/Florida over 10 +100
Willis sucks these days. He gets lit up pretty much every time he takes the hill anymore, and Florida is a very high scoring team that has been on an offensive tear lately. Now they get to bat in a hitters park instead of that canyon they play in down in Miami. I think both sides may light up the scoreboard at some point in this one.
2 units each
Tribe -130
Nice story with Lester coming back, but this is about making $$$. How long is he gonna go? Cleveland is an excellent home team (34-15), and Westbrook has good numbers at home as well, despite sucking on the road. Boston hasn't done much lately other than beat up on the horrible White Sox, who IMO are one of the absolute worst teams in MLB. Big whoop. The Tribe is favored here for a reason.
Jays +135
Jays pitching has been great, and they hit LHP very well (.292 overall and .302 at home). I know it's Santana i'm going against, but the Jays ability to hit LHP shows a bit in his record vs TOR (2-3, 4.15 ERA) and with the Jays record and stats vs LHP, combined with the way their pitching has been shutting people down, I'm certainly getting the right price to make this play.
Detroit -103
IMO this is a sweet price at which to fade the White Sux, no matter who they're playing, but with baseball's best team (record wise - they're % points better than BOS) and add in that Detroit hits lefites at a .299 clip, while Chicago isn't so hot at .236, it becomes a no brainer for me to make this play on the value alone. I realize Buehrle is more experienced than Miller, and that either one of these blowass bullpens could blow up in this one, but those things aren't enough to scare me off this one.
Texas -120
Millwood has improved, and Texas is improving as well. They're starting to hit and their bullpen has been strong. Ramirez has a double digit road ERA and he's facing a team who can hit. What more do i need?
Colorado -130
Maddux has more or less gotten lit up lately minus his last start where he pitched 5 scoreless innings against the Mets. That's never a good sign when your offense has trouble scoring and your pitching in Colorado. A little chalky, but again, I believe the Rocks are favored for good reason here, despite having a worse record than SD.
Arizona/Florida over 10 +100
Willis sucks these days. He gets lit up pretty much every time he takes the hill anymore, and Florida is a very high scoring team that has been on an offensive tear lately. Now they get to bat in a hitters park instead of that canyon they play in down in Miami. I think both sides may light up the scoreboard at some point in this one.
2 units each
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