Nice little hedge bet opportunity

[ncsucharlie]

I thought some of you guys may think this is a great opportunity for a hedge bet in case you overlooked it, so I made its own thread to get it some exposure and discussion.

... with the Tigers playing the Royals ... the way I see it, I can only lose $$$ if Tigers win by 1, otherwise I'm guaranteed a +.

Tigers -1.5 +125 @ risk 3 units
Royals +156 @ risk 3 units

Go Royals!

[Cubbiefan16]

That's fine if you want to risk 6 units to win .75 to 1.5. The Tigers have won by 1 run in over 20% in their games. I don't like the odds there for a loss. And personally, I don't think the risk is worth the reward. But good luck though and go Royals.

[ncsucharlie]

yeah but the odds are strongly in my favor that they won't win by 1 run. It is definitely a risk vs reward bet and how conservative vs aggressive do you want to be. Where did you get that stat that the Tigers have won by 1 run in over 20% of their games?

[Low]

I agree with cubbiefan...was just about to write the same thing..dont think its worth the risk.6units to win 0.75 or 1.68 units...and arent most mlb games, 1run games like 30% or something like that...GL

[Daddy Diego]

I like the bet, especially cause I'm leaning toward the Royals. Which are always a tough team to bet on... gives a little insurance, but it's true... insurance ain't cheap. So I probably couldn't pull the trigger myself.

[ncsucharlie]

Where did you get that stat that the Tigers have won by 1 run in over 20% of their games?

Response to myself, I just counted it out .. 20 1 win games, 72 other. So you are correct, 21.74% are 1 run games .. I guess the book come out on top over the long run, but hopefully they don't stick it to me 2nite :) I got about a 4 of 5 chance.

[homedawg]

dont wanna rain on your parade, but 4 of 9 between these 2 teams this year have resulted in 1 run games...GMeche was involved in 2 of them. GL NC :beerbang:

[ncsucharlie]

looking good :beerbang:

good job those who picked the royals straight up

[homedawg]

kcr wins.....:beerbang:

You ended up +168, on 600 invested...

I got +162 on 100 invested. In the future, please remember::: ROI

[Kevin]

Nice call!

Be careful though, Ive heard of many trying this and getting their rear ends handed to them. A back to back losing streak or starting this system off with a loss is devastating.