MLB Picks - 8-22-2015

[FlyOnTheWall]

Arizona at Cincinnati

Delgado makes his first MLB start since 1013 and brings with him poor back numbers against the current Reds' lineup. Anthony DeSclafani has been on as good run with five consecutive quality starts but four of the games came on the road and the one at home was against the light hitting Cardinals. His numbers at the Great American Ball Park this season are poor with carrying a 5.40 earned run average into this game in 10 starts. The active roster of the Diamondbacks have hit a career .417 against DeSclafani in limited at bats (24). Both starters have improved numbers at night but I believe there is enough data to support a play on the OVER based on the historical batter versus pitcher stats.

Playing the OVER 8 +100

[FlyOnTheWall]

Toronto at LA Angels

Toronto at LA Angels

The Jays score runs period. I had a fellow handicapper tell me that it’s because of the Rogers Centre being so hitter friendly, but that’s not true. Toronto has scored 5.47 runs at home this season and sure it drops on the road by half a run, but it is still a very good 5.05 which just happens to be nearly half a run better than the second place road scoring team.

Tonight they battle lefty Andrew Heaney who has some very impressive numbers overall with an WHIP of just over one and an ERA of 2.63. He’s never started against the Jays, but he has faced a trio of Toronto batters and they’ve gone three for eight against him (.417) and this is a team that hits left-handed pitching for average and power leading the MLB in OPS .817 and second in BA .282.

The Jays will send out Marco Estrada who appears to be reborn in Toronto with a career best ERA this season of 3.20. His earned run average rises marginal to 3.46 on the road and at night 3.77. He’ll be starting against the Angels for just the second time in his career and first since 2013 when he allowed 4 runs and 10 baserunners in seven frames of work. The roster has hit him well with five batters hitting .333 or better in limited at bats.

My initial lean was to the Jays and lay the extra 20 points but value wise I think the way to bet is on the total. Toronto as stated has averaged over five runs per game on the road this season. They are the best hitting club in the majors against left-handed pitching. Estrada has been good or actually very good but he rarely goes past six and that bullpen while improved still has question marks in the long relief role if needed. We also get a foot up with an OVER favoring ump behind home plate.

I’ve put my cash on the OVER 8 -105