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MLB 220-224-4 +24.28 units
Keep alternating between good days & disasters....3-8 yesterday with some pretty rough ones. In retrospect the Padres, TB & Boston were all games I wouldn't normally play (concensus faves by too much), so I need to stop that crap. Today I'm on....
Spankees/Oreos o9+107
F's/Injuns o8.5-120
Ligers/Strangers o10.5-120
Screwers-133
2 units each
Reds+127
Pale Hose+130
Spankees/Oreos o10+163
1 unit each
Looking back on the last couple day's plays, I noticed I am 8-2 last 10 totals plays. Also 3-0 on totals posted in parlays that lost, so I focused a bit on those today.
Yankees over 9- 10 or more runs were scored in the last 3 meetings between these 2 teams. Tha Yankees seem to put up runs in Baltimore- total is low because of Guthrie's solid era, but look at the last 3 teams he has faced. SD, Wash, Col- hardly the Yankees lineup. I know the Yankees have been slumping offensively, but IMO they will put up runs today... Pettitte has been bad on the road, 1-4 in 9 starts, 59 ip, 59 hits & 22 er. He also has a 5.33 era in June this year.... really like getting the 9 at plus money, also taking a stab at the 10+163.
A's/Indians o8.5- 3 of the last 4 meeting have gone over 9 runs total. Haren is 1-2 with a 6.45 era in 4 career starts vs the Indians. A tough play on the over with Haren & his 1.34 road era on the mound, but his last 4 starts on the road were against SF, Bal, KC & TB. Cleveland bats are capable of getting a couple in IMO, & Lee is allowing .295 opp ba against at home. 7 of Lee's last 10 starts have gone over 9 runs total. IMO the A's bats get to him & would be surprised if he went 6 innings. Last time he faced Oak, he allowed 4 runs in 5 ip.....
Det/Tex o10.5- Robertson is 5-1 over in his last 6 home starts, & is allowing a .301 opponents ba at home! 41 ip at home, 50 hits & 22 er. I don't expect Eyre to pitch past the 6th inning vs this Detroit lineup.... IMO this one gets over the high number....
Getting Vargas at home -133 looks good to me, the only other fave that I would consider today is King Felix. Taking Homer & the Reds simply because I think he's the better prospect & I don't think Kendrick deserves to be that high of chalk. I also have a theory I am implementing for TB games.....
If they are a fave, fade. They are way too inconsistent to be laying chalk, IMO. I know the White Sox are terrible, but I'm going to play 1 unit against TB every time they are favored....Lean to the Jays/Twinkies over. GLTA :jiggy:
Keep alternating between good days & disasters....3-8 yesterday with some pretty rough ones. In retrospect the Padres, TB & Boston were all games I wouldn't normally play (concensus faves by too much), so I need to stop that crap. Today I'm on....
Spankees/Oreos o9+107
F's/Injuns o8.5-120
Ligers/Strangers o10.5-120
Screwers-133
2 units each
Reds+127
Pale Hose+130
Spankees/Oreos o10+163
1 unit each
Looking back on the last couple day's plays, I noticed I am 8-2 last 10 totals plays. Also 3-0 on totals posted in parlays that lost, so I focused a bit on those today.
Yankees over 9- 10 or more runs were scored in the last 3 meetings between these 2 teams. Tha Yankees seem to put up runs in Baltimore- total is low because of Guthrie's solid era, but look at the last 3 teams he has faced. SD, Wash, Col- hardly the Yankees lineup. I know the Yankees have been slumping offensively, but IMO they will put up runs today... Pettitte has been bad on the road, 1-4 in 9 starts, 59 ip, 59 hits & 22 er. He also has a 5.33 era in June this year.... really like getting the 9 at plus money, also taking a stab at the 10+163.
A's/Indians o8.5- 3 of the last 4 meeting have gone over 9 runs total. Haren is 1-2 with a 6.45 era in 4 career starts vs the Indians. A tough play on the over with Haren & his 1.34 road era on the mound, but his last 4 starts on the road were against SF, Bal, KC & TB. Cleveland bats are capable of getting a couple in IMO, & Lee is allowing .295 opp ba against at home. 7 of Lee's last 10 starts have gone over 9 runs total. IMO the A's bats get to him & would be surprised if he went 6 innings. Last time he faced Oak, he allowed 4 runs in 5 ip.....
Det/Tex o10.5- Robertson is 5-1 over in his last 6 home starts, & is allowing a .301 opponents ba at home! 41 ip at home, 50 hits & 22 er. I don't expect Eyre to pitch past the 6th inning vs this Detroit lineup.... IMO this one gets over the high number....
Getting Vargas at home -133 looks good to me, the only other fave that I would consider today is King Felix. Taking Homer & the Reds simply because I think he's the better prospect & I don't think Kendrick deserves to be that high of chalk. I also have a theory I am implementing for TB games.....
If they are a fave, fade. They are way too inconsistent to be laying chalk, IMO. I know the White Sox are terrible, but I'm going to play 1 unit against TB every time they are favored....Lean to the Jays/Twinkies over. GLTA :jiggy:
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