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161-114-4 +45.14
Taking:
Giants +112 (3 units to win 3.36 units)
Ventura left his last start with stiffness in his throwing shoulder. I've had a dinged shoulder and they don't heal that fast. The kid is only 23 as well. I could see him being super amped up for this game and overthrowing a bit. Fireballers that overthrow can have control issues. I recall Roger Clemens having these issues in games where he was super pumped up. I think Ventura is a great pitcher, I just don't like him in this spot.
He's been pretty hittable lately as well, as he's given up 7 earned runs in 13 innings (in playoffs). In 3 of his last 4 appearances, he has given up as many runs as innings he's pitched. Dude is still a kid. He's approaching 200 innings and it's possible that he may be getting tired. (See above, he left his last start due to shoulder issue)
The Royals have only scored 5 runs over their last 3 games. If you look back at the regular season, this team had spells where they'd go a long stretch of not scoring many runs. It appears that this may be happening right now.
The Giants on the other hand, have a seasoned veteran in Jake Peavy taking the hill. His overall numbers are tricky. So much so that it'd lead one to believe that the Royals are a shoe-in tonight. He's given up 23 dongs, hasn't done very well in night games or on the road. HOWEVER, he was one of the best pitchers in the league during Sept. with a 1.44 ERA. It wasn't a fluke either, as his ERA was 2.40 in August. It appears that he's keeping the ball down, which is the key to success for any pitcher. This is evidenced by him only allowing 3 gopher balls over his last 73 innings. There is one thing that worries me though. Peavy has a 6.42 career ERA at Kaufman Stadium. I also like that he's been stingy with RISP, only allowing a .234 avg to opposing hitters.
Lastly, I'd never base a play on one player, much less a hitter, but betting against Pablo Sandoval scares the bajeebers out of me. Did you watch Charlie Brown/Peanuts as a kid? Linus said every year the great pumpkin rises from the pumpkin patch to do it's thing. Well, when it comes to the World Series, Pablo Sandoval is the great pumpkin! I don't know what it is about this guy but he absolutely turns to gold in big games. He exudes SOME KIND of confidence in the World Series. He reminds me of this kid I coached in kids basketball. Skylar was his name. Kid couldn't dribble, hit a free throw, make a shot, make a pass, NOTHING. Kid got into the game and was a tornado. Shot making, pass stealing, shot blocking MONSTER. At the end of the year ceremony I gave him a trophy for being a "prime time player". The same could be said for Sandoval.
I'll take my chances with a guy (Peavy) who is on fire vs. a team (Royals) that appears to be having issues scoring runs.
Good luck to all!
Taking:
Giants +112 (3 units to win 3.36 units)
Ventura left his last start with stiffness in his throwing shoulder. I've had a dinged shoulder and they don't heal that fast. The kid is only 23 as well. I could see him being super amped up for this game and overthrowing a bit. Fireballers that overthrow can have control issues. I recall Roger Clemens having these issues in games where he was super pumped up. I think Ventura is a great pitcher, I just don't like him in this spot.
He's been pretty hittable lately as well, as he's given up 7 earned runs in 13 innings (in playoffs). In 3 of his last 4 appearances, he has given up as many runs as innings he's pitched. Dude is still a kid. He's approaching 200 innings and it's possible that he may be getting tired. (See above, he left his last start due to shoulder issue)
The Royals have only scored 5 runs over their last 3 games. If you look back at the regular season, this team had spells where they'd go a long stretch of not scoring many runs. It appears that this may be happening right now.
The Giants on the other hand, have a seasoned veteran in Jake Peavy taking the hill. His overall numbers are tricky. So much so that it'd lead one to believe that the Royals are a shoe-in tonight. He's given up 23 dongs, hasn't done very well in night games or on the road. HOWEVER, he was one of the best pitchers in the league during Sept. with a 1.44 ERA. It wasn't a fluke either, as his ERA was 2.40 in August. It appears that he's keeping the ball down, which is the key to success for any pitcher. This is evidenced by him only allowing 3 gopher balls over his last 73 innings. There is one thing that worries me though. Peavy has a 6.42 career ERA at Kaufman Stadium. I also like that he's been stingy with RISP, only allowing a .234 avg to opposing hitters.
Lastly, I'd never base a play on one player, much less a hitter, but betting against Pablo Sandoval scares the bajeebers out of me. Did you watch Charlie Brown/Peanuts as a kid? Linus said every year the great pumpkin rises from the pumpkin patch to do it's thing. Well, when it comes to the World Series, Pablo Sandoval is the great pumpkin! I don't know what it is about this guy but he absolutely turns to gold in big games. He exudes SOME KIND of confidence in the World Series. He reminds me of this kid I coached in kids basketball. Skylar was his name. Kid couldn't dribble, hit a free throw, make a shot, make a pass, NOTHING. Kid got into the game and was a tornado. Shot making, pass stealing, shot blocking MONSTER. At the end of the year ceremony I gave him a trophy for being a "prime time player". The same could be said for Sandoval.
I'll take my chances with a guy (Peavy) who is on fire vs. a team (Royals) that appears to be having issues scoring runs.
Good luck to all!
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