Charlie's computer simulated plays (MONDAY)

[ncsucharlie]

As I've stated in my first thread regarding these computer sims there is still a lot of work to go, however the ones and zeros picked Houston over the Mariners on Saturday so the computer is 1-0 thus far.

Please note, this sim doesn't take into account the pitching still, only the bats. I'm trying to find games where the pitchers have somewhat similar numbers to hopefully put a check on this caveat. I'm definitely not suggesting you tail these plays without doing your own handicapping!

I simulated the Twins/Mets game 500,000 times and the computer picked the Twins with these being the average scores:

Twins: 3.62
Mets: 3.11

so I've got the Twins at +150 (which I think is a great value anyway).

If you've got a game you want me to run through the numbers and the starting pitchers are similar let me know and I'll try and post them.

[Longhorn Fan]

That is pretty interesting stuff. How bout Houston and the Angels. Lackey and Sampson have similiar numbers with the exception of wins.

[joepa66]

GL Charlie.....I'm with the Twins also.....and nice call Longhorn cause I got LAA as well! :beerbang:

[ncsucharlie]

Hey guys, I ran the Angels/Astros for ya, here is what the computer thinks:

Angels - 3.16
Astros - 3.32

The computer thinks it should be a close game with a very slight edge to the Astros. Remember, this is based only on the bats and should be taken with a grain of salt!

[Angelus]

Your totals seem low. Both games under 7. If these are simulated 500,000 times, and was actually a fair and real representation, we should see total runs closer to 8 or 9 I would think.

[ncsucharlie]

Your totals seem low. Both games under 7. If these are simulated 500,000 times, and was actually a fair and real representation, we should see total runs closer to 8 or 9 I would think.

definitely are low.. as of now it does not simulate anything with pitching (such as a walks) which would generate more runs. It also does not simulate stolen bases, or if a player reaches third with 0 or 1 out and fly balls/ground ball outs that would score the runner from third. I think this is where the ~3 runs are being left out. As I said, don't tail these picks, I'm still fiddling with all the details

:beer2:

On that note, Mets are beating up on the Twins :blackeye:

[homedawg]

chuckie, keep working it, and track it...:beerbang: everyone has there "system" and when you get more successful systems in place on the same side of a game, ya win! :beerbang:

[homedawg]

BTW, I got hou at +or-1.... so hopefully they win outright for ya... :beerbang: