Thursday MLB Discussion

[Underdog88]

Couple early games today- have some free time so let's go!




SD/TB- I lean towards Germano & SD...although TB has been hot winning 7 of last 10, I expect a solid bounceback performance from Germano. Yesterday they snapped a 4 game losing streak & got early run support. Howell is making his 3rd start of the year & is coming off a rough performance vs the Marlins- 6 runs off 8 hits in 5 ip. My 1 concern is the Padres shaky hitting as they are batting an NL worst .244- I'm thinking they can get some runs today though. TB-CF Dukes possibly out & 2b Upton on 15 day DL.....

Mil/Det- IMO Sheets or no play here... better pitcher, better pen & it seems as if the Detroit bats have colled off. Last home game for Det before a 9 game road trip. Sheets 1.42 era last 3 games.

Cincy/Angels- Homer Bailey gets his 2nd start- although he got the win, he had some control issues, which could be problematic today vs a hard hitting club. Anderson is back & Vlad busted out of his slump yesterday. I won't be backing the Angels though, as Colon has had his struggles recently- in the last 3 outings, he's given up 19 runs in 14 2/3 ip. I'm leaning towards the over 9.5

Oak/Hous- Rubber match for the series & I lean towards backing the AL team. Gaudin at even money & Astros pen is very suspect. Also a lean to the 1st 5 under, as I don't see a very high scoring game, yet the pen could kill that for Houston.

Zona/NYY- I said it the past couple days, IMO the time to fade the Yanks has come & gone (for the moment LOL). They are hitting the cover off the ball- They will be in a parlay with the Pirates-180 for me today, still deciding if I want to add a 3rd team.


Cubs/Sea- no interest in backing the Cubs-142, personally it would be Sea or nothing. Of course backing SEa means a play on Weaver eek.

Other games I have a bit of interest in-

Indians/Fish o9- Indians can hit Willis & Stanford gets the go for Clev. Just m akes sense to me.

Braves+170 vs Twins- Santana continues to lack run support, while Hudson is 14-5 indoors. Braves are cold though- I'm hoping the public pushes it up a bit.



What do you think?

[Texas hook 'em]

Like a lot of the same UD.
SD- no play on this one for me, same lean as you
Mil/Det- no play

Cincy/Angels over 5 first 5 innings -120 - Bailey wiggled out of some tough ones last game, Colon getting rocked lately, particularly on the road. Lookin for Bailey to give up about 3 or so and colon to make up the difference. Gonna keep riding the over in the first 5 of colon starts till it finally bites me.

Oak/Hou under 1st 5 innings - 2 teams with dead bats, 2 pitchers throwing pretty well.

Also like the Wells/Elarton 1st 5 inning over 5 and a half - Either of these guys could give this number up on their own, St. Louis finally hitting better

Not a big fan of any of the sides today

GL with your plays, hope we hit them

[Underdog88]

I have to agree with all your plays- gonna throw a unit on that Halos 1st5 over.... also looking at STL/KC o10.5 for the game. GL man :thumbs:

[Silver & Black]

I'll add my 2 cents

TB / sd - SD hit's left handers better than right handers, but the Kids in TB are averaging 7 runs in the last 8 games and that includes being shut out yesterday... I think the teams are figuring out Germano. Gun to my head, I'll play the over...I'll pass on the game

DET / mil - last 5 starts, Sheets has only received more than 3 runs in support of his performance 1 time (5). Tigers hitting over .310 vs right handers in last 10 games. Almost .290 on the year. Averaging almost 7 runs a game for Durbin. Play Det

CIN / laa - C-Mon - this is Bartolo Colon...averaging less than 5 innings a game in his last 3 starts, giving up 28 hits and an impressive 11.00 era. Even the Reds should be able to put numbers up here.. Play Cin


HOU / oak - A's have won the last 7 that Gaudin has started. Jennings has pitched well since coming off the DL, but not well enough to go the distance, and the Stro's pen in right now drawing straws to see who can blow this one. Play A's

CHI / sea - Jeff Weaver...NUff Said. He'll give up 7 and the M's will score 5. Play the over 10.5
:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Nice thoughts S&B, can't argue with most, although I just don't see the Tigers giving Durbin the run support vs Sheets today. That being said they are terrible in interleague play. Ended up playing the Reds alt rl+210, as IMO if they win, chances are it's because Colon gets rocked (again)....



Big Dogs Discussion.....


Rockies+200 vs Beckett

Nats+175 vs Guthrie

Braves+170 vs Santana

Rangers+157 vs Gorzelanny


I left out the Yankees (IMO they keep the win streak alive)... I'm on Pitt today, but the line has drooped from -180 to 167... I tried fading Beckett last start & was close to playing the Rockies last night (doh). Missed opportunity, but is there a shot today? He has to lose at some point, but I really don't want to gwet in the habit of fading a very hot pitcher. Again the Orioles are favored heavily, this time to avoid the sweep... how can you lay that price with a 16-15 home team? Balty only has 1 more win than the Nats! Possible sweep there, IMO. Same goes for the Twins- they're giving a high number because of the name, I really don't think the line is warranted.


If you're around RJP, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Rockies, Nats & Braves RLs. Seems as if there could be value...

[Texas hook 'em]

Not a big fan of the nats and guthrie has been awesome, especially that last start against the nats. Don't like guthrie's value here and I've grown hesisitant to ever bet O's RLs, so I'm passing.

No opininion on braves or rangers, those lines look about right to me.

I do like the rockies for a unit. Francis has been great on the road so far and has some value getting so much. Not sold on beckett tanking it here, but maybe the rocks can get lucky and get enough off of him. I feel you on the tailing hot pitchers dilemma though, especially since I tried it after santana had won 11 in a row the other year and he ended up ripping off 15 straight.

[gadfly36]

with you on atl udog and im leaning toward kc. stl just isnt the same team that they were last year.