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Didnt get a chance to cap todays games so spent my time focusing for these games so hopefully it pays off...
Dbacks + 123 x 1 unit
At face value the mets seem the value play with Maine but digging a bit there's a lot I liked about the dbacks coming into this one. One they're hot, young team riding momentum is a good combo. 2, Webbs career numbers vs the mets are very good, the guys he doesn't want to face from the mets, Green and Alou are both out injured. Mets numbers vs right handers isn't impressive, 2 of their best rh'ed batters are the same 2 that give Webb problems and ones I mentioned are sitting out with injury. 3, Maine doesn't look as sharp as he was earlier in the season. He's walking a lot of batters and giving up hits, when a teams as hot as the dbacks are, free bases will end up hurting. His numbers at home are also way off his impressive road numbers this season, for his careers his stats show the same trend of him being worse on the road. All in all I think im getting a more than favorable price to take the dbacks in this one.
Fish + 137 x 1 unit
This one just comes down to too large a price on the fish. Floridas a good road team and Olsen in limited action has held the brew crew in check. The brew are a fairly free swinging club and Olsen has very nice stuff when he's on. Having the brew chase him should help as he won't feel like he needs to be perfect to get outs. He's also proven to be a better road pitcher thru his career. Suppan is having a solid year but continues to be hittable and is starting to give up more walks. His numbers indicate he's been much better at home this year but his career numbers show him to only be mildly better in his own yard. The fish as a team hit him well earlier this year a trend thats been going on for a bit now. The brew crew should be favored but I don't see how they can be favored by this much, values with the fish.
Cleveland -155 to win 1 unit
Laying the chalk here but even at this price they're undervalued imo. The tribe come in with the better pitching, the better pen and the better bats. It's a quick turnaround for both these pitchers so it should come down to which pitcher will be able to limit the damage. Carmona has more talent where Maroth is very much hittable. Once it gets to pens the tigers are in trouble as their pen can't keep anything close.
Red Sox + 101 x 1 unit
Can't believe the odds got to this. I saw -114 on the bosox and I went to lock it in by then the price had changed so I just waited it out and it hit this. It just comes down to value with this play, bosox are hot, are a great home team while the yanks are ice cold. Wake struggled the last time he faced the yanks while Wang was very good, could play out the same way but in this match up in Boston I'll take the sox + odds with virtually any pitcher they have vs anything the yanks can throw at them.
waiting to see some line movement in another couple games before I could consider locking anything else in. GL everyone :beerbang:
Dbacks + 123 x 1 unit
At face value the mets seem the value play with Maine but digging a bit there's a lot I liked about the dbacks coming into this one. One they're hot, young team riding momentum is a good combo. 2, Webbs career numbers vs the mets are very good, the guys he doesn't want to face from the mets, Green and Alou are both out injured. Mets numbers vs right handers isn't impressive, 2 of their best rh'ed batters are the same 2 that give Webb problems and ones I mentioned are sitting out with injury. 3, Maine doesn't look as sharp as he was earlier in the season. He's walking a lot of batters and giving up hits, when a teams as hot as the dbacks are, free bases will end up hurting. His numbers at home are also way off his impressive road numbers this season, for his careers his stats show the same trend of him being worse on the road. All in all I think im getting a more than favorable price to take the dbacks in this one.
Fish + 137 x 1 unit
This one just comes down to too large a price on the fish. Floridas a good road team and Olsen in limited action has held the brew crew in check. The brew are a fairly free swinging club and Olsen has very nice stuff when he's on. Having the brew chase him should help as he won't feel like he needs to be perfect to get outs. He's also proven to be a better road pitcher thru his career. Suppan is having a solid year but continues to be hittable and is starting to give up more walks. His numbers indicate he's been much better at home this year but his career numbers show him to only be mildly better in his own yard. The fish as a team hit him well earlier this year a trend thats been going on for a bit now. The brew crew should be favored but I don't see how they can be favored by this much, values with the fish.
Cleveland -155 to win 1 unit
Laying the chalk here but even at this price they're undervalued imo. The tribe come in with the better pitching, the better pen and the better bats. It's a quick turnaround for both these pitchers so it should come down to which pitcher will be able to limit the damage. Carmona has more talent where Maroth is very much hittable. Once it gets to pens the tigers are in trouble as their pen can't keep anything close.
Red Sox + 101 x 1 unit
Can't believe the odds got to this. I saw -114 on the bosox and I went to lock it in by then the price had changed so I just waited it out and it hit this. It just comes down to value with this play, bosox are hot, are a great home team while the yanks are ice cold. Wake struggled the last time he faced the yanks while Wang was very good, could play out the same way but in this match up in Boston I'll take the sox + odds with virtually any pitcher they have vs anything the yanks can throw at them.
waiting to see some line movement in another couple games before I could consider locking anything else in. GL everyone :beerbang:
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