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Well I've done all my research and the plays were pretty definitive as I feel like I'm getting overwhelming value in a few games today so I decided to go a little heavier today with limited games....
Mets - 118 to win 2 units
Mets on the road vs lefties are scary. Sosa is a capable pitcher, Olsen has settled a bit but is very hittable. Mets have the better pen while the fish pen is still overworked from the phils series. Fish bats are cold in this series. All this and I don't have to pay much for it.
Giants -.5, 1st 5 innings -114 to win 2 units
I don't trust the giants offense at all but I do have a lot of faith in Lowry at home. 3,15 lifetime in SanFran. The rox have gotten to him in the past but more so at coors and when they have in SF it's late in games. Off losing the last couple, I expect a strong showing in this game. The ml is a little too chalky for me but I do expect an early lead with the rox struggles vs lefties and away from home. Bucholz is shyt as well which helps
Astros - 127 to win 2 units
Who better to stop a losing streak than Oswalt. Over his career he's been lights out vs the dbacks and has never lost to them. Thru the dbacks line up there is very little success vs Roy. 2 anemic offenses going today but the stros line up is littered full of guys who have hit Hernandez well. Better pitcher and the team with more success vs the opposing pitcher. AZ has the pen edge but I would expect Oswalt to go deep and not make them an issue.
NYY -129 to win 2 units
Yanks at this price is a rarity as they're usually a public team but seems the public like the angels today. Why not they've beaten the yanks twice already this series and they got arguably their best pitcher on the mound. I'm on the other side tho. Lackey isn't as solid away from home or during day games nor has he been good vs the yanks historically. When Arods one of the weakest in your line up vs the opposing pitcher and he's .229 and a few jacks you're pretty strong vs that pitcher. Who better on the mound for the yanks to stop a losing streak but Moose? He hasn't been grea this year but he knows this Angels line up and none of the big boys in the angs line up has hit him well in the past.
Tbay + 136 x 2 units
You gotta be kidding me Kazmir vs the sox who can't hit a lefty to save their lives and getting me + odds. I know tbay stinks but they've hit Vaz in the past and the few bats in the line up who have faced Vaz have come out on the better side more times than not. Here's the relevant stats, chi sox batting .237 at home, .205 vs lefties, Kazmir 1.29 vs the chisox in their only match up. No guarantee they'll win but this is way too much value to be getting.
Mariners -128 to win 2 units
I know you're not supposed to bet against teams trying to avoid the sweep and i've done it twice today but value is value so I go where it takes me. Washburns pitching as well as he has in the last decade, he's better on the road than he is at home and has been money at Kaufmann thru his career. The M's bats are on fire and their stats show their best match up is on the road vs lefties. Kaufmann, Perez. Made to order. The M's haven't seen him much but they all hit him when they saw him. He's been better of late but this is a tall order. M's are the better team, better on the road than kc is at home, have the better sp, better pen and hotter line up. All for under -130, value.
GL everyone :beerbang:
Mets - 118 to win 2 units
Mets on the road vs lefties are scary. Sosa is a capable pitcher, Olsen has settled a bit but is very hittable. Mets have the better pen while the fish pen is still overworked from the phils series. Fish bats are cold in this series. All this and I don't have to pay much for it.
Giants -.5, 1st 5 innings -114 to win 2 units
I don't trust the giants offense at all but I do have a lot of faith in Lowry at home. 3,15 lifetime in SanFran. The rox have gotten to him in the past but more so at coors and when they have in SF it's late in games. Off losing the last couple, I expect a strong showing in this game. The ml is a little too chalky for me but I do expect an early lead with the rox struggles vs lefties and away from home. Bucholz is shyt as well which helps
Astros - 127 to win 2 units
Who better to stop a losing streak than Oswalt. Over his career he's been lights out vs the dbacks and has never lost to them. Thru the dbacks line up there is very little success vs Roy. 2 anemic offenses going today but the stros line up is littered full of guys who have hit Hernandez well. Better pitcher and the team with more success vs the opposing pitcher. AZ has the pen edge but I would expect Oswalt to go deep and not make them an issue.
NYY -129 to win 2 units
Yanks at this price is a rarity as they're usually a public team but seems the public like the angels today. Why not they've beaten the yanks twice already this series and they got arguably their best pitcher on the mound. I'm on the other side tho. Lackey isn't as solid away from home or during day games nor has he been good vs the yanks historically. When Arods one of the weakest in your line up vs the opposing pitcher and he's .229 and a few jacks you're pretty strong vs that pitcher. Who better on the mound for the yanks to stop a losing streak but Moose? He hasn't been grea this year but he knows this Angels line up and none of the big boys in the angs line up has hit him well in the past.
Tbay + 136 x 2 units
You gotta be kidding me Kazmir vs the sox who can't hit a lefty to save their lives and getting me + odds. I know tbay stinks but they've hit Vaz in the past and the few bats in the line up who have faced Vaz have come out on the better side more times than not. Here's the relevant stats, chi sox batting .237 at home, .205 vs lefties, Kazmir 1.29 vs the chisox in their only match up. No guarantee they'll win but this is way too much value to be getting.
Mariners -128 to win 2 units
I know you're not supposed to bet against teams trying to avoid the sweep and i've done it twice today but value is value so I go where it takes me. Washburns pitching as well as he has in the last decade, he's better on the road than he is at home and has been money at Kaufmann thru his career. The M's bats are on fire and their stats show their best match up is on the road vs lefties. Kaufmann, Perez. Made to order. The M's haven't seen him much but they all hit him when they saw him. He's been better of late but this is a tall order. M's are the better team, better on the road than kc is at home, have the better sp, better pen and hotter line up. All for under -130, value.
GL everyone :beerbang:
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