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ytd 190-201 (-7.27 units)
Tribe +105
Historically, the Tribe hits Verlander better than Detroit does Sabathia. I feel these teams are pretty evenly matched, but I give the edge to CC based on those stats, and that he has proven to be a big gamer in the past....and this is a big game (at least as big as possible at this point in the season) because a loss for the Tribe puts Detroit back ahead of them in the division.
LA Dodgers +110
Completely the wrong fave. Flubs should never be a fave vs a LHP. Hendrickson isn't that good, but he should be experienced enough to get these guys chasing like they've done all year vs LHP. Zambrano hasn't shown **** this year to be a road fave either. I'll keep fading the Flubs vs LHP until they figure it out, and to get a better team at home and +110 odds to do it looks like a gift.
Phillies -103
Carlyle has pitched well recently at AAA. Big whoop. This is the potent Phillies line up he has to face now, whose mediocre hitters are probably better than anything Carlyle has faced at AAA.
In his short stints in the majors, Croyle has managed to pitch 54 2/3 innings, and earn himself a 7.41 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in the process, walking a batter nearly every other inning. If he doesn't have control today, that number will go up against a normally patient Phils lineup.
Eaton seems to be turning the corner as well, so I'm going to take a shot on him at what seems like a fair line to do so.
Florida Marlins +140
This is more of a value play for me. The line opened to nothing but a chorus of bets on the the NYM, yet has remained pretty constant at many places, except the really public books like SIA, who was kind enough to give me this price of +140 (5 Dimes is at FLA +128). Maine hasn't pitched well recently, for whatever reason, and Florida has won 7 of 10. No reason they should be this big of a home dog IMO.
2 units
Will probably have a few more later. WAS going to play Texas when it reached +135, but that lasted all of about 2 minutes and it got knocked all the way back to +120....so I'm going to wait and see if it can get back up the +130 range. Also deciding on a few others....
Tribe +105
Historically, the Tribe hits Verlander better than Detroit does Sabathia. I feel these teams are pretty evenly matched, but I give the edge to CC based on those stats, and that he has proven to be a big gamer in the past....and this is a big game (at least as big as possible at this point in the season) because a loss for the Tribe puts Detroit back ahead of them in the division.
LA Dodgers +110
Completely the wrong fave. Flubs should never be a fave vs a LHP. Hendrickson isn't that good, but he should be experienced enough to get these guys chasing like they've done all year vs LHP. Zambrano hasn't shown **** this year to be a road fave either. I'll keep fading the Flubs vs LHP until they figure it out, and to get a better team at home and +110 odds to do it looks like a gift.
Phillies -103
Carlyle has pitched well recently at AAA. Big whoop. This is the potent Phillies line up he has to face now, whose mediocre hitters are probably better than anything Carlyle has faced at AAA.
In his short stints in the majors, Croyle has managed to pitch 54 2/3 innings, and earn himself a 7.41 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in the process, walking a batter nearly every other inning. If he doesn't have control today, that number will go up against a normally patient Phils lineup.
Eaton seems to be turning the corner as well, so I'm going to take a shot on him at what seems like a fair line to do so.
Florida Marlins +140
This is more of a value play for me. The line opened to nothing but a chorus of bets on the the NYM, yet has remained pretty constant at many places, except the really public books like SIA, who was kind enough to give me this price of +140 (5 Dimes is at FLA +128). Maine hasn't pitched well recently, for whatever reason, and Florida has won 7 of 10. No reason they should be this big of a home dog IMO.
2 units
Will probably have a few more later. WAS going to play Texas when it reached +135, but that lasted all of about 2 minutes and it got knocked all the way back to +120....so I'm going to wait and see if it can get back up the +130 range. Also deciding on a few others....
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