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ytd 165-183 (-26.65 units)
A ton of value plays today for me....
St Louis Cardinals +185
I've been doing basically nothing but fading these guys, with great success, but with the way they've been hitting lately, it seems their offense may be breaking out of their season long slump. At this price, I will take the chance that they cal pull one out today with offense, and a halfway decent pitching performance from Thompson.
Toronto Blue Jays +130
How in the hell can a team who has won 6 of their last 8 be this big of a dog vs a team starting Adam Eaton? Yes, they're throwing a guy making his 2nd start, and he may come down to earth today after a really strong outing in his first start, but then again, he might not. Again, I'll take my chances.
Washington Nationals +145
The O's continue to not be able to hit LHP on the road, and today they get to face another LHP starter in Bowie. They won a close one yesterday in extras after posting a whole line of goose eggs until getting one in the 8th to tie, long after the LHP starter for Washginton, Bacsik, left the game. Washington is also 6-3 on their current home stand, with a sweep of the Marlins and taking 3 of 4 from the Braves, before losing 2 to Baltimore. I see no reason to believe they cannot avoid the sweep today, and at +145 the odds are very nice IMO given the matchup and situation.
Atlanta Braves -119
The odds of Smoltz vs Hansack at -110 were rediculous last night, and this may be worse at only -119 for Hudson vs Gabbard considering the way Hudson has pitched this season. I know Hudson is going to have some bad starts, his ERA isn't going to be 1.77 for the whole season, and that Boston has the offense to get to anyone, but I'm not sure what would suggest that today is different than any other day and Hudson is doomed to fail today more so than any other. Also, I do realize that you could only make the team with the best record in the majors (29-13) so big of a home dog on principle alone, but the Braves aren't too shabby themselves at 26-17, and they are getting absolutely no respect, and I think it provides excellent value toady. Really, if they are only -119 with Hudson vs Gabbard, what would this line be if it was Hudson vs Schilling? ATL +180? Dumb.
Minnesota Twins +140
Well it seems the Brewers spaceship has landed, in losing 5 of their last 6, and not looking very impressive in doing so. Claudio Vargas, like I said a while ago, is not that good. He is ok, but really, he's historically no better than Ramon Ortiz, both of whom had had their ups and downs throughout their careers....and he certainly doesn't deserve a line like this against an AL team who has won like 20 of their last 22 interleague games. It's funny how a guy has a few good starts to start a season after a career of sucking ass, and all of a sudden the lines start to suggest he's a superstar. I don't get it, and I'll take my chances with the Twins today, who are the better team anyway (AL Central is FAR > than the NL Central, which would easily account for the disparity in their records), and hope Ortiz doesn't screw it up.
2 units each
A ton of value plays today for me....
St Louis Cardinals +185
I've been doing basically nothing but fading these guys, with great success, but with the way they've been hitting lately, it seems their offense may be breaking out of their season long slump. At this price, I will take the chance that they cal pull one out today with offense, and a halfway decent pitching performance from Thompson.
Toronto Blue Jays +130
How in the hell can a team who has won 6 of their last 8 be this big of a dog vs a team starting Adam Eaton? Yes, they're throwing a guy making his 2nd start, and he may come down to earth today after a really strong outing in his first start, but then again, he might not. Again, I'll take my chances.
Washington Nationals +145
The O's continue to not be able to hit LHP on the road, and today they get to face another LHP starter in Bowie. They won a close one yesterday in extras after posting a whole line of goose eggs until getting one in the 8th to tie, long after the LHP starter for Washginton, Bacsik, left the game. Washington is also 6-3 on their current home stand, with a sweep of the Marlins and taking 3 of 4 from the Braves, before losing 2 to Baltimore. I see no reason to believe they cannot avoid the sweep today, and at +145 the odds are very nice IMO given the matchup and situation.
Atlanta Braves -119
The odds of Smoltz vs Hansack at -110 were rediculous last night, and this may be worse at only -119 for Hudson vs Gabbard considering the way Hudson has pitched this season. I know Hudson is going to have some bad starts, his ERA isn't going to be 1.77 for the whole season, and that Boston has the offense to get to anyone, but I'm not sure what would suggest that today is different than any other day and Hudson is doomed to fail today more so than any other. Also, I do realize that you could only make the team with the best record in the majors (29-13) so big of a home dog on principle alone, but the Braves aren't too shabby themselves at 26-17, and they are getting absolutely no respect, and I think it provides excellent value toady. Really, if they are only -119 with Hudson vs Gabbard, what would this line be if it was Hudson vs Schilling? ATL +180? Dumb.
Minnesota Twins +140
Well it seems the Brewers spaceship has landed, in losing 5 of their last 6, and not looking very impressive in doing so. Claudio Vargas, like I said a while ago, is not that good. He is ok, but really, he's historically no better than Ramon Ortiz, both of whom had had their ups and downs throughout their careers....and he certainly doesn't deserve a line like this against an AL team who has won like 20 of their last 22 interleague games. It's funny how a guy has a few good starts to start a season after a career of sucking ass, and all of a sudden the lines start to suggest he's a superstar. I don't get it, and I'll take my chances with the Twins today, who are the better team anyway (AL Central is FAR > than the NL Central, which would easily account for the disparity in their records), and hope Ortiz doesn't screw it up.
2 units each
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