MLB Underdog Chase system thoughts/discussion

[akatdrake]

Looking for some thoughts/discussion on starting out an underdog chase:

1) Obviously need proper bankroll management. I'm looking at 1% for the first game, 2% for the second, 3% for the third, 4% for the fourth

2) Requires having access to bet via computer, smartphone, etc each game of the series. If I know I will be away from technology, I won't start the series chase.

Other than bankroll management/access, can you guys think of any other hinderances?

In terms of paring down the card:

1) Divisional games are typically tight. I'm thinking AL Central and East, NL West, maybe NL Central

2) Would it be wise to do a strict underdog chase meaning if team A is underdog in game one, you bet team A. If they're the favorite in game two, bet team B? Or do you stick with team A throughout the series?

3) Elimination criteria: looking at bullpens after the first month, maybe home vs away stats etc?

Anyone have any experience in these or thoughts with what sort of criteria to use?

[akatdrake]

Okay, I think I have a few parameters to begin testing this out:

1) Using ESPN's RPI rankings, I have assigned a value to each team (currently Yankees #1, Astros #30). By averaging these numbers I have gotten a divisional power ranking - best) AL East: 10.4, worst) NL Central: 19

I am looking for divisions using the above rankings that are "competitive." I have defined this as over 50% of the teams in the upper 15 or lower 15. Example, the AL East has teams ranked 1, 5, 6, 12, 28 - because four of the five teams are ranked in the top 15, I consider this a competitive division. Meanwhile the AL Central has teams ranked 4, 17, 20, 21, 22 - because four of the five teams are ranked in the lower 15, I consider this a competitive division as well.

Not that we can predict sweeps, but I would gather a better team would sweep just as much as a poorer team would get swept. Of course we want to stick to those divisions right in the middle. Example, AL West has teams ranked 2, 3, 25, 29 - with the Angels and Rangers possibly owning the Mariners and the Athletics this year, as of right now - this division is a no-play.

I believe ESPN reranks weekly, but I think I will be taking a look every two or four weeks to adjust the divisons we bet.

As of 04/09/12:

AL East: 1, 5, 6, 12, 28 - playable division
AL Central: 4, 17, 20, 21, 22 - playable division
AL West: 2, 3, 25, 29

NL East; 8, 11, 14, 16, 27
NL Central: 9, 13, 15, 23, 24, 30 - playable division (see below)
NL West: 7, 10, 18, 19, 26

Until my 1-11 start, I thought I knew a little about baseball, and considered the NL Central perhaps the most wide-open division in baseball. So I'll continue to bet those.

2) This will be an underdog chase. I will take the underdog in the first game and chase a one-unit win for that team. I have yet to decide how to handle the situations for when a dog loses game one and then becomes favorite on game two, though because a lot of our games are road dogs, the favorite prices shouldn't be too bad. As of right now, we will not chase a fourth game.

Because there are just so many games, and I don't want to be running a ton of chases twice a week, I am definitely looking for ways to pare this down.

[akatdrake]

Monday, 4/9.

Current divisions being played: AL East, AL Central, NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals +112 @ Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs +118 vs Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox +108 @ Toronto Blue Jays

If both teams are favorites, the series will NOT be a play (White Sox/Indians). We are only playing 3+ game series.

[akatdrake]

Hit STL and BOS tonight. Will play on the Cubs again tomorrow when lines are released.

Chicago Cubs +100 for 2 units

[akatdrake]

I also saw that I missed the NYY/BAL series. I remember looking at the line being -180/+160 or so and eliminating that series as well. I think we are looking at small underdogs here. So I will eliminate series to only include +100 to +150.

[akatdrake]

Wednesday:

Chicago Cubs +112 for 4 units

[akatdrake]

No games today, except if I wanted to chase the Cubs for 8 units. Really don't feel like it this early on in the year, and in fact after doing some reading up on it, I could even eliminate the third chased game. I'll keep updating and backtesting.

[akatdrake]

Hey, thanks Cubs for the win in the final game of the series.

To recap:

1) This is an underdog chase system.
2) Rank the divisions bi-monthly. Currently playing: NL Central, AL Central, AL East
3) Teams must play 3+ game series
4) Chose the underdog for 1 unit in first game, 2 units in second game, 4 units in third game, 8 units in fourth game if you wish (I will not chase a fourth game).

Through first series: 2-1, -4.8 units

[rawhide]

I always thought if i was going to chase it would be NL Central. I would be looking for the least streaky divison. NL central usally fits the bill.

[akatdrake]

Thursday:

Chicago Cubs +180

Tampa Bay Rays +112

Cleveland Indians +107

Baltimore Orioles +177

Will be tracking the big faves. Tigers/White Sox no play due to -105/-105, will track before game time and play if I can if line moves.

[akatdrake]

Also, tracking the Cubs/Orioles series (series +150 for starting game). Orioles/Yankees that I eliminated earlier in the week - would have been a series loss for me.

[akatdrake]

Good day yesterday going 3-1.

Today is

Tampa Bay Rays +124 for two units

[akatdrake]

Sunday:

Tampa Bay Rays -117 to win four units

[gadfly36]

gl akat, with you on the rays. theyre due to have a decent game.

[akatdrake]

Thanks Gad. Unfortunately they did not hit, and created another series loss.

So far the series is 5-2, but -7.84 units