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A few months ago, I placed a large wager on the Yankees to win the division. So basically I've followed every Yankees and Orioles game for the last 60 or so games.
Usually it's expected that the Yankees come up short in the playoffs despite their big payroll. They just depend too much on the long ball, and their pitching is average at best. Then the playoffs come and the power guys can never hit or get anyone on base. That's not the case this year (it would have been if they were just depending on Judge like they were for most of the season).
I would argue that the Yankees pitching is better than their hitting this year. For most of those 60 games, I watched the Yankees win and lose based on the performance of two guys; Soto and Judge. Those two would get a few runs a game, and the pitching would keep the score low for them to get a lot of these wins. Nobody other than Judge did anything.
Garrett Cole has been hot and cold. He has ace stuff, but has had two subpar outings these playoffs, coupled with some good ones. He usually bounces back after a subpar outing, and he'll be starting game 1. Rodon has been passable. He usually gives up a couple of runs per outing, and the Yankees need around 4-5 to get him the win. Clarke Schmidt has is a solid 2 run a game pitcher, and can keep you in it as long as you don't put up an absolute dud. Gil has been great this year until the end of the season where he started to wear down (rookie season). He's pitched once in the last month, and he should be closer to his old self from here on out.
In the playoffs, the Yankees have gotten contributions all over the lineup other than Chissolm and Wells. But those two are too important defensively, so I like that they continue to start them despite the lack of offensive production.
Gleyber Torres has been an absolute stud for the past couple of months. Consistently getting on base with hits or a walk. He draws walks off 1-2 and 0-2 counts because of his patience. IMO, Gleyber has been the glue guy that quietly was behind the Yankees second half run. Anthony Rizzo has been great since coming back from the IL. Soto and Stanton nothing else needs to be said. Volpe has been solid smacking some ground ball hits every now and then, and Verdugo seems to have luck on his side in the playoffs.
The Yankees also have some pretty good pinch hit options. Berti has a good bat, and he can fly on the bases. Jasson Dominguez can fly as well. He's got some power, but his fielding is not good, that's why he doesn't play much. He hit .314 in the minors this year though. Cabrera is decent and can get hits in certain spots. Jose Trevino is a better hitter than Wells, but he gets stolen on too much, that's why he doesn't play.
The Yankees have a solid bullpen as well. Weaver, Kahnle, and Cousins are my top 3 relievers. Though Tim Hill pitched well last series, I don't have a ton of confidence in him. Nor do I have confidence in Mark Leiter Jr. But the difference is the Yankees starters go a minimum of 5-6 innings. That sets them up for a combination of the 3 top relievers, and Weaver can and has pitched 2 innings before. Clay Holmes is an enigma. Used to be a closer, so he has shutdown stuff, but he can implode at any time. I wouldn't mind seeing Holmes as a middle reliever where he thrived for most of the playoffs. But I just think the bullpen was getting tired, and that was what led to the two blown leads.
If the Yankees get blown out, which I'm sure will happen one game in the series, they won't have to waste their good bullpen arms, because Marcus Stroman in on the roster. Imagine having Stroman as your throway pitcher. Dude is 10-9 this season, and won 6 of 7 outings at one point. They were 11-3 when he started earlier this season.
You look at the Dodgers, and obviously they are the superior offensive team with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar, and Kiki having a great playoffs. But their pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Their ace Yamamoto has gotten injured twice this season, and he never pitches more than 5 innings. He also doesn't have a big arm, and depends a lot on his control to get people out. Flaherty I would compare to Louis Gil on the Yankees. He has the potential to pitch a nice game, but also volatile enough to give up 6-7 runs. Other than that, the Dodgers have been getting by with Bullpen games. I just don't think that's sustainable to win a Championship.
The Dodgers possible third starter Walker Bueller is not the same guy he was before Tommy John. If the Dodgers didn't close the the Met series out in game 6, I would have been highly concerned for the Dodgers putting Bueller up with their season on the line.
The MLB got what they wanted with the Yankees and Dodgers, and Judge vs Ohtani. But I don't see Ohtani just signing with the super team and winning a ring right off the break.
Pitching wins championships, and I think the Yankees have the far superior pitching staff for once.
About a month ago there was a big commotion about the Yankees ace Garrett Cole intentionally walking Rafael Devers. It was talked about for several days, and was frankly embarrassing. I had a feeling the Yankees would right that ship and put it in a distant memory.
You guys remember when the stars aligned that one year for Roger Federer to get his first, and only, French Open title cuz someone beat Nadal for the only time in a 13 year span? It feels like that this year for the Yankees. The Orioles had a ton of injuries, which allowed the Yankees to win the division. The Astros started slow. Both those teams have had their way with the Yankees, but both got knocked out in the first round. Basically parting the sea for the Yankees to face a very flawed Dodgers team in the World Series.
Yankees just have had a ton of luck the past month. In Seattle, Gil had the bases loaded and a 3-0 count to Justin Turner and the idiot on third got thrown out trying to steal home. Then the next night Seattle had the tying run on third with no outs, but the guy struck out, and his bat went flying, and the guy on third got picked off running out of the way. Then last series the Yankees came back from behind twice against an ace closer because of late home runs when they should have just pitched around them. Then the error in the closeout game allowed 2 runs to score. Going back, the Yankees won the division because the Orioles manager pulled their ace after 6 shutout innings and like 70 pitches, then the Yankees clobbered their bullpen right after. It just feels like there's so much luck on the Yankees side this year.
Also, Juan Soto is in a contract year. And I have a feeling that he's going to earn a HUGE contract off this win.
World Series Champion - New York Yankees +100
I put mine in after they clinched the division at +450. Big Ohtani fan, but he has to earn it. And I don't think this is their year.
Ohtani is dangerous, but he's struck out at least one time every game in the playoffs except 1. He has struck out 16 times in 10 games.
TLDR - The Yankees have way better pitching than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the better hitters, but most of the Yankees lineup has been contributing these playoffs, and it feels like it's their year. I think they win it this time for the first time in 15 years.
And for fun I'll say Yankees in 6. I assume the Yankees will go with a 4 rotation for now. The Dodgers have no choice but to go with 3.
Game 1: Cole vs. Yamamoto. - Win
Game 2: Rodon vs. Flaherty - Loss (Blowout)
Game 3: Schmidt vs. Bueller - Win
Game 4: Gil vs. Yamamoto - Win
Game 5: Cole vs. Flaherty - Loss
Game 6: Rodon vs. Bullpen - Win
Usually it's expected that the Yankees come up short in the playoffs despite their big payroll. They just depend too much on the long ball, and their pitching is average at best. Then the playoffs come and the power guys can never hit or get anyone on base. That's not the case this year (it would have been if they were just depending on Judge like they were for most of the season).
I would argue that the Yankees pitching is better than their hitting this year. For most of those 60 games, I watched the Yankees win and lose based on the performance of two guys; Soto and Judge. Those two would get a few runs a game, and the pitching would keep the score low for them to get a lot of these wins. Nobody other than Judge did anything.
Garrett Cole has been hot and cold. He has ace stuff, but has had two subpar outings these playoffs, coupled with some good ones. He usually bounces back after a subpar outing, and he'll be starting game 1. Rodon has been passable. He usually gives up a couple of runs per outing, and the Yankees need around 4-5 to get him the win. Clarke Schmidt has is a solid 2 run a game pitcher, and can keep you in it as long as you don't put up an absolute dud. Gil has been great this year until the end of the season where he started to wear down (rookie season). He's pitched once in the last month, and he should be closer to his old self from here on out.
In the playoffs, the Yankees have gotten contributions all over the lineup other than Chissolm and Wells. But those two are too important defensively, so I like that they continue to start them despite the lack of offensive production.
Gleyber Torres has been an absolute stud for the past couple of months. Consistently getting on base with hits or a walk. He draws walks off 1-2 and 0-2 counts because of his patience. IMO, Gleyber has been the glue guy that quietly was behind the Yankees second half run. Anthony Rizzo has been great since coming back from the IL. Soto and Stanton nothing else needs to be said. Volpe has been solid smacking some ground ball hits every now and then, and Verdugo seems to have luck on his side in the playoffs.
The Yankees also have some pretty good pinch hit options. Berti has a good bat, and he can fly on the bases. Jasson Dominguez can fly as well. He's got some power, but his fielding is not good, that's why he doesn't play much. He hit .314 in the minors this year though. Cabrera is decent and can get hits in certain spots. Jose Trevino is a better hitter than Wells, but he gets stolen on too much, that's why he doesn't play.
The Yankees have a solid bullpen as well. Weaver, Kahnle, and Cousins are my top 3 relievers. Though Tim Hill pitched well last series, I don't have a ton of confidence in him. Nor do I have confidence in Mark Leiter Jr. But the difference is the Yankees starters go a minimum of 5-6 innings. That sets them up for a combination of the 3 top relievers, and Weaver can and has pitched 2 innings before. Clay Holmes is an enigma. Used to be a closer, so he has shutdown stuff, but he can implode at any time. I wouldn't mind seeing Holmes as a middle reliever where he thrived for most of the playoffs. But I just think the bullpen was getting tired, and that was what led to the two blown leads.
If the Yankees get blown out, which I'm sure will happen one game in the series, they won't have to waste their good bullpen arms, because Marcus Stroman in on the roster. Imagine having Stroman as your throway pitcher. Dude is 10-9 this season, and won 6 of 7 outings at one point. They were 11-3 when he started earlier this season.
You look at the Dodgers, and obviously they are the superior offensive team with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar, and Kiki having a great playoffs. But their pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Their ace Yamamoto has gotten injured twice this season, and he never pitches more than 5 innings. He also doesn't have a big arm, and depends a lot on his control to get people out. Flaherty I would compare to Louis Gil on the Yankees. He has the potential to pitch a nice game, but also volatile enough to give up 6-7 runs. Other than that, the Dodgers have been getting by with Bullpen games. I just don't think that's sustainable to win a Championship.
The Dodgers possible third starter Walker Bueller is not the same guy he was before Tommy John. If the Dodgers didn't close the the Met series out in game 6, I would have been highly concerned for the Dodgers putting Bueller up with their season on the line.
The MLB got what they wanted with the Yankees and Dodgers, and Judge vs Ohtani. But I don't see Ohtani just signing with the super team and winning a ring right off the break.
Pitching wins championships, and I think the Yankees have the far superior pitching staff for once.
About a month ago there was a big commotion about the Yankees ace Garrett Cole intentionally walking Rafael Devers. It was talked about for several days, and was frankly embarrassing. I had a feeling the Yankees would right that ship and put it in a distant memory.
You guys remember when the stars aligned that one year for Roger Federer to get his first, and only, French Open title cuz someone beat Nadal for the only time in a 13 year span? It feels like that this year for the Yankees. The Orioles had a ton of injuries, which allowed the Yankees to win the division. The Astros started slow. Both those teams have had their way with the Yankees, but both got knocked out in the first round. Basically parting the sea for the Yankees to face a very flawed Dodgers team in the World Series.
Yankees just have had a ton of luck the past month. In Seattle, Gil had the bases loaded and a 3-0 count to Justin Turner and the idiot on third got thrown out trying to steal home. Then the next night Seattle had the tying run on third with no outs, but the guy struck out, and his bat went flying, and the guy on third got picked off running out of the way. Then last series the Yankees came back from behind twice against an ace closer because of late home runs when they should have just pitched around them. Then the error in the closeout game allowed 2 runs to score. Going back, the Yankees won the division because the Orioles manager pulled their ace after 6 shutout innings and like 70 pitches, then the Yankees clobbered their bullpen right after. It just feels like there's so much luck on the Yankees side this year.
Also, Juan Soto is in a contract year. And I have a feeling that he's going to earn a HUGE contract off this win.
World Series Champion - New York Yankees +100
I put mine in after they clinched the division at +450. Big Ohtani fan, but he has to earn it. And I don't think this is their year.
Ohtani is dangerous, but he's struck out at least one time every game in the playoffs except 1. He has struck out 16 times in 10 games.
TLDR - The Yankees have way better pitching than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the better hitters, but most of the Yankees lineup has been contributing these playoffs, and it feels like it's their year. I think they win it this time for the first time in 15 years.
And for fun I'll say Yankees in 6. I assume the Yankees will go with a 4 rotation for now. The Dodgers have no choice but to go with 3.
Game 1: Cole vs. Yamamoto. - Win
Game 2: Rodon vs. Flaherty - Loss (Blowout)
Game 3: Schmidt vs. Bueller - Win
Game 4: Gil vs. Yamamoto - Win
Game 5: Cole vs. Flaherty - Loss
Game 6: Rodon vs. Bullpen - Win