BEAT THE BOOKS 2011

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  • BTB
    Newbie
    • Jul 2011
    • 27

    #16
    BEAT THE BOOKS

    DUKIES,
    I DO AGREE WITH YOUR MATH, HOWEVER YOU SEEM TO FORGET ONE THING: NOT ALL PLAYS ARE MADE THE SAME? YOU ARE BASING THE MATH ON THE FACT YOU BET THE SAME AMOUNT ON EACH GAME WHICH YES DOES EFFECT EH MATH DRASTICALLY. HOWEVER FOR THIS BET I WOULD LAY 23 TO WIN 10. NOT JUST RISK THE 10. YOUR RIGHT OVER THE LONG HAUL THIS MATH ALWAYS WORKS OUT TO YOUR FAVOR BUT I PROMISE YOU THIS IS WAY MOST WISE GUYS USE SOME KIND OF RATING SYSTEM? SO YOU WOULD LAY MORE ON A 3* BET VS A 2*? IF YOU CONT PLAY THE SAME AMOUNT YOU MUST ALWAYS PLAY THE DOGS OR LINES THAT DONT GO ABOVE -120 BC ONCE YOU GET ABOVE THAT WITH THE SAME AMOUNT BET EACH TIME THEN YOU WILL ALWAYS MAKE THE BOOKIE MONEY UNLESS YOU ARE ABOVE 57%! LIKE I STATED I AM NOT QUESTIONING YOU I AM JUST EXPLAINING WHY I WOULDNT PLAY THE SAME AMOUNT FOR EACH GAME? LAYING THE ODDS THAT WAY IS ALWAYS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE BOOKS, BUT I DO THINK MIXING YOUR BETS UP ON BASEBALL IS THE BEST APPROACH AND LAYING HEAVY CHALK ISNT ALWAYS THE BEST BET EITHER!

    GOOD LUCK TO YOU!:beerbang:

    Comment

    • akatdrake
      Senior Member
      • Oct 2007
      • 6065

      #17
      The point us "haters" are making, is that there are certain bets out there that will destroy your bankroll - and huge favorites are documented as one of them.

      We all have different ways to "beat the books," and your way works for you, mine for me, Dukies for him, etc. The whole point in a forum - and I wish we did more of this here as well - is to educate others, give insight on certain picks, etc...
      NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
      MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
      MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
      NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
      Updated on 01/13/18
      ---
      One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

      Comment

      • BTB
        Newbie
        • Jul 2011
        • 27

        #18
        BEAT THE BOOKS

        Drake,

        Thats what I said was I was just giving a different look at the way I bet baseball, but I find it funny that no one post on your forum until they want to talk ****? No one said anything other than you when I swept the board 4-0? So why talk crap if you cant give credit for winning also? Thats what I call a hater and that didnt include you. You did say great day and I respect that. I will lose just like everyone else in this worl at some point but if I make a big play and hit it for 10k then lose 4k over 3 days I am still up and that was my whole point about making the Cards series such a big play. Hell at least I didnt lay -300 on the Yanks for the series? Imagine what you guys would be saying about me then? LMAO!


        GOOD LUCK TO YOU BRO!:laughing:

        Comment

        • akatdrake
          Senior Member
          • Oct 2007
          • 6065

          #19
          I have to admit, I do tend to post more than discuss or make reasoning for my posts, but I cannot say I don't want it. There are several posters, all of which have their reasoning for making their plays, posting their picks. To each their own. I will however say there is a lot more discussion during NFL and NBA season. I think there are so many games to hit, so many angles to warrant a play in MLB, that it gets a bit repetitive.

          I've had a couple of 3-0 days in the last week, and though I don't lay much juice (learned that my first full year betting MLB full-time, -70 units) anymore, sweeping the board is sweeping the board no matter what!!

          I wish you the best of luck, keep the plays coming. Lay off the caps-lock (really haha). And keep the winners coming.

          If you keep posting winners, we'll definitely give you praise, just don't overdo it :)
          NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
          MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
          MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
          NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
          Updated on 01/13/18
          ---
          One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

          Comment

          • supbk1031
            Newbie
            • Mar 2011
            • 81

            #20
            ur thread is titled "beat the books" yet u bet with over 70% or more of the betting public in almost all of your games. your never gonna beat the books betting that way.
            Twitter:
            @EddieWayneSS
            @JayDaniels_SS

            Youtube:
            https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdR...ySemqnXOqWI2ag

            Comment

            • BTB
              Newbie
              • Jul 2011
              • 27

              #21
              BET THE BOOKS

              Not sure how you came up with 70% but I think there is a lot that is being missed. I dont claim to hit a huge percentage of winners on a huge number of games. I run an investment fund. A lot of what I do has nothing to do with sports but if you look at it like this: My objective is to provide the BIGGEST ROI to the investors who are willing to take a bigger risk. I would not bank my retirement on the fact the Yanks are favored -180 for the night, BUT sometimes its worth the risk to take a shot? You can really boost your bankroll, investment fund, etc whatever it may be by taking shots. Use the Phils for instance with juiced lines almost everynight if you would have bet them every game for 100 dollars your +1234 right now (number may not be exact but its close). So I would not consider myself as a sports gambler I look at myself and my strategy as an investment and of course you lose on investments just like you win. SO maybe I wasnt clear about what I was trying to accomplish? ROI is the only thing I worry about when it comes to betting or making any investment.

              As always good luck to everyone!

              Comment

              • gadfly36
                Moderator
                • Mar 2007
                • 6207

                #22
                thank you for losing the caps and congrats on your record so far. it's better than mine at the moment, but all it takes to lose it is a few of those big bets to not come in. when you are betting long odds you dont win that much when you hit your roll doesnt improve much. it also takes a lot longer to get your losses back. unless you have a crystal ball betting long odds is not the way to build your roll, but who am i to say since i'm negative in posted plays right now. good luck.
                mlb 2018 157-110 +42.74 2018
                nfl 2018 54-79-1 -21.4 units 2018
                mlb 2019 348-245-3 +70.2 units 2019
                nfl 2019 54-54 -21.2 units 2019
                mlb 2020 112-75-1 +33.35 units 2020
                nfl 2020 88-87-3 -8.4 units 2021
                mlb 2020 playoffs 30-17 +30.6 units 2020
                nfl playoffs 2020 11-11-1 +25.4 units 2021
                mlb 2021 271-226 +18.3 units 2021
                mlb 2022 240-239 -62.9 units as of 10-21-2022
                mlb 2023 122-103 -9.7 units 2023
                mlb 2024 15-11 +2.7 units as of 4-13-2024

                Comment

                • BTB
                  Newbie
                  • Jul 2011
                  • 27

                  #23
                  BEAT THE BOOKS 7/26

                  Hopefully I can keep posting my plays for people to fade/follow? My only objective is to make money and lots of it!

                  4* PLAY: MIL -140 (MIL 20-9 vs CHC 12-19 in my fav stat WLCS! MIL needs this game to stay in the race in the central.)

                  3* PLAY: CARDS -1.5 (+125) (As we know the post I made about betting the series is what caused all tthe up roar to begin with so I am riding the Cards again tonight with Houston throwing a horrible Myers tonight.)

                  2/3* PLAY: BOSTON -1.5 (EV) (Hopefully the Redsox will wake the **** up and play some baseball. They better get it in gear if they wanna hold tight with the Yanks in the AL EAST!)

                  Comment

                  • BTB
                    Newbie
                    • Jul 2011
                    • 27

                    #24
                    BTB

                    AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

                    Looking for a big night and hoping for 15+ units tonight with a Cards win tonight!

                    Comment

                    • DukiesBaby
                      Eagle Nation
                      • Mar 2009
                      • 872

                      #25
                      Originally posted by BTB
                      DUKIES,
                      I DO AGREE WITH YOUR MATH, HOWEVER YOU SEEM TO FORGET ONE THING: NOT ALL PLAYS ARE MADE THE SAME? YOU ARE BASING THE MATH ON THE FACT YOU BET THE SAME AMOUNT ON EACH GAME WHICH YES DOES EFFECT EH MATH DRASTICALLY. HOWEVER FOR THIS BET I WOULD LAY 23 TO WIN 10. NOT JUST RISK THE 10. YOUR RIGHT OVER THE LONG HAUL THIS MATH ALWAYS WORKS OUT TO YOUR FAVOR BUT I PROMISE YOU THIS IS WAY MOST WISE GUYS USE SOME KIND OF RATING SYSTEM? SO YOU WOULD LAY MORE ON A 3* BET VS A 2*? IF YOU CONT PLAY THE SAME AMOUNT YOU MUST ALWAYS PLAY THE DOGS OR LINES THAT DONT GO ABOVE -120 BC ONCE YOU GET ABOVE THAT WITH THE SAME AMOUNT BET EACH TIME THEN YOU WILL ALWAYS MAKE THE BOOKIE MONEY UNLESS YOU ARE ABOVE 57%! LIKE I STATED I AM NOT QUESTIONING YOU I AM JUST EXPLAINING WHY I WOULDNT PLAY THE SAME AMOUNT FOR EACH GAME? LAYING THE ODDS THAT WAY IS ALWAYS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE BOOKS, BUT I DO THINK MIXING YOUR BETS UP ON BASEBALL IS THE BEST APPROACH AND LAYING HEAVY CHALK ISNT ALWAYS THE BEST BET EITHER!

                      GOOD LUCK TO YOU!:beerbang:



                      Actually no the BASIC line in betting is -110 im not specifying baseball picks, in all general gambling.... every single total over and under , every single spread line, all hover around -110 moneylines are the only exception,


                      BUT my point is not betting only -110 to win, im just pointing out that betting big on -230 is a suckers way of betting,




                      Now like i stated before im just supplying you with truth, whether you choose to listen is your own choice, i can already tell by the way you type/ respond your fairly young like myself im 27, (please don't respond back saying your old like over 30)


                      i like, yourself, look at sports betting as my job, my investment into making money, and for as young as i am i do fairly well, im not as knowledgeable in the sport of baseball as these other fellows here in this forum, im a student of the game, just like kids outta highschool go to college to become doctors, lawyers, scientists, etc etc.... i spend alot of my time everyday constantly learning the sports betting business i like to call it, constantly familiarizing myself with players, parks fields, refs, umps etc etc... i also do alot of research on money management, see i am motivated to make this work, i lived in vegas for about a year, i got familiar with all the local sports bettors, i asked questions, observed the winners and losers, asked more questions, mainly about bankroll and money management, 1 thing i got from all the winners, was the risk to reward ratio, and the value... some guy made a living making 2 3 spot parlays, other guys betting every game on the board as singles, point is everyone has their own way of capping picking games, but all the people who are successful at it are those who really manage their bank roll...


                      now to end my piece in this thread....


                      all i'm trying to say to you is betting big wagers on huge juiced lines in the end is not a profitable way...

                      Underdogs do win and its more than 30% of the time, if they didn't the books wouldn't be in business


                      good luck sir hopefully u take this post as a constructive one not an attack on you as a person:thumbs:
                      NCAAF YTD
                      Overall

                      67-46-2 +41.08 units

                      Comment

                      • BTB
                        Newbie
                        • Jul 2011
                        • 27

                        #26
                        BTB

                        Dukies,
                        No offense taken at all and I actually dont mind hearing different advice from people! I just cant stand the know it all person. I dont claim to know much about anything! I would like to maybe even get your email and bounce things off of you for some ideas if thats cool? Good luck to you!

                        Comment

                        • BTB
                          Newbie
                          • Jul 2011
                          • 27

                          #27
                          BEAT THE BOOKS

                          Well well! 19 UNITS anyone? 3-0 last night and 10 more on the series bet with the Cards! An absolute wonderful night! And that makes 30 UNITS in L4 days sweeping the board on 2 of those days! And they were all posted in this forum! Looking forward to another good day!

                          Comment

                          • BTB
                            Newbie
                            • Jul 2011
                            • 27

                            #28
                            BTB EARLY 7/27 PLAYS

                            Going with a couple of small early plays! So here you go, lets keep this train rolling:


                            2* PLAY: LAA/IND UN 4.5 RUNS IN 1ST 5INN (-115). Can either play the under on the first five innings or you can play the under on the game. These have been low scoring games and with an early start time today I like this game to get out to a slow start hopefully!


                            1* PLAY: YANKS -145.
                            Dont see how you can load up on this one esp if King Felix is going to try and prove something to everyone right before trade deadline. Cliff Lee did this same thing last year. But Ill ride the losing streak again just bc the Yanks are a much better team and this is actually the one of the best games of the day based on my fav stat WLCS its 17-2 Yanks vs 6-8 for Seattle.

                            AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

                            :beerbang:

                            Comment

                            • supbk1031
                              Newbie
                              • Mar 2011
                              • 81

                              #29
                              not bad not bad. send me a Private Message so i can get your email. i feel with both of our picks we could make some serious cash
                              Twitter:
                              @EddieWayneSS
                              @JayDaniels_SS

                              Youtube:
                              https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdR...ySemqnXOqWI2ag

                              Comment

                              • BTB
                                Newbie
                                • Jul 2011
                                • 27

                                #30
                                BEAT THE BOOKS 7-27

                                Not much out there unless you wanna lay a lot of chalk tonight. Strong lean on Braves, Cards, Bosox, Ariz, and that's about it.

                                ONLY EARLY PLAY! BOSOX -.5 IN FIRST 5!

                                May get on Ariz later? Only moved one unit so far but at least it's been profitable!

                                Comment

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