MLB 4-14-11

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  • DukiesBaby
    Eagle Nation
    • Mar 2009
    • 872

    MLB 4-14-11

    SORRY FOR POSTING THIS LATE BUT I WAS STUCK AT THE DOCTORS OFFICE LONGER THAN EXPECTED...


    The following plays are NOT my plays, I recently purchased an article about parlay betting, and along with this article i have recieved an email pick from these (supposed) professionals
    about their currently plays for todays games and insight to why they like them, a couple have gone off as i have seen but ill post the others here so at least u can get whats left of them as another take on todays games .....


    -------------------------


    GIANTS -101 at Padres (Bumgarner-Harang)
    INDIANS -105 at Orioles (Masterson-Guthrie)
    BLUEJAYS +132 v. Yankees (any pitchers)
    Royals at Twins OVER 8.0 -115 (Chen-Liriano)
    RANGERS -116 at Mariners (any pitcher-Vargas)
    Rangers at Mariners OVER 7.0 +100 (Holland-Vargas)




    Notes:

    GIANTS -101 at Padres (Bumgarner-Harang): Bumgarner (4-9, 3.87) is starting for the Giants and Harang (7-2, 3.45) is starting for the Padres. Despite the ERA numbers favoring Harang, especially here at home, we're expecting Bumgarner to get better numbers today. The reason is the difference in these teams' batting stats. Bumgarner is facing much weaker bats than Harang. The Giants' bats are currently 'worth' 9.5 hits over 9 innings at bat and they've been needing 2.2 hits to score a run. The Padres' bats have been getting only 6.2 hits over 9 innings and they've been needing a league-worst 3.4 hits to score a run. We'd take the Giants at -120 or better.

    INDIANS -105 at Orioles (Masterson-Guthrie): Everything we have - except for home field advantage - is leaning toward the Indians in this game. Masterson (7-6, 2.64) has better numbers than Guthrie (3-12, 4.18), the Indians have better hits-per-run ratios and better hits-per-inning numbers than the Orioles. We'd take the Indians as far as -120.

    BLUEJAYS +132 v. Yankees (any pitchers): Colon (6-4, 3.20) is starting for the Yankees and he has much better current ERA numbers than the Bluejays' starter, Reyes (4-7, 4.57). That's obviously why this posted line is so high, but check into these teams' recent batting numbers and you'll see that Colon has a problem. He's facing much better current batters than Reyes, not to mention being on the road. The Yankees' bats have currently been 'worth' 8.4 hits over 9 innings at bat while the Bluejays' bats have been 'worth' 10.4 hits over 9 innings. The Yankees have been needing 2.1 hits in order to score a run, the Bluejays have been scoring a run for every 1.8 hits. Considering home field advantage, we don't think this game is worse than a pick'em for the Bluejays. We'd take 'em at odds of +130 or better.

    RANGERS -116 at Mariners (any pitcher-Vargas)
    Rangers at Mariners OVER 7.0 +100 (Holland-Vargas): It's never comfortable betting against the better of two pitchers, but in this case the difference in batting stats favoring the Rangers is relatively overwhelming. The Rangers are starting with Holland (7-4, 4.88) as their pitcher, the Mariners are starting with Vargas (6-6, 3.49), then add home field advantage to these pitching stats and we are really starting from a hole with the Rangers..Nevertheless, the Rangers' bats have been getting a whopping 12.8 over 9 innings at bat and they've been scoring a run for every 1.5 hits. The Mariners' bats may currently be the worst bats in the league. They've been getting only 6.4 hits over 9 innings at bat and they've been needing 2.8 hits to score a run. (The average National League team uses about 2.1 hits to score a run.) We may have to come from behind to win this bet, but we like these odds. We'd lay as much as -120 with the Rangers.
    NCAAF YTD
    Overall

    67-46-2 +41.08 units
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