Whats better for the books?

[DukiesBaby]

I have been thinking about this all day and it has relevance to some betting im gonna be doing in the near future...



Lets say we create a pitching matchup with Roy Halladay @ Tim Lincecum

phillies giants game 1 of playoffs

i give giants home field because there are a few more Halladay backers than Lincecum on a neutral field so i think putting giants at home we get a public 50%-50% game of betting


Now my question is, What is more Profitable for the house/books To list both teams @ -105 money line or Lets say they like the giants to win, Would it be more profitable to put the giants at -110 phillies +100 or vice versa Phillies -110 Giants +100 and by doing so swaying a public bet in favor of the phillies to a 60-40 margin...

Juice vs Public percentage..

[Daws1089]

in a game like that, why wouldnt they just offer both teams -105 to guarantee a profit? No real edge and you if the dog won books risk losing money in a game that tightly split.

[DukiesBaby]

in a game like that, why wouldnt they just offer both teams -105 to guarantee a profit? No real edge and you if the dog won books risk losing money in a game that tightly split.

but if its a 60-40 split house still makes the 20%
cause the dog is at even money...

vs a 50-50 split only making juice

[Horfin]

As odd as it sounds, books are NOT in the business of gambling...they are in the business of making money. So I don't think they care that they think that SFG will win, they care what the public thinks. I think that if the betting becomes too heavy on one side, they either take it off the board or they adjust the line so they don't get burnt. In your example, if they adjust the line because they think SFG is going to win then they are gambling. I don't think what they think about who is going to win comes into the picture, what comes into the picture is what they think the public thinks. So if they think the public will think that SFG should be a fave then they will make SFG a fave, if they think the public thinks PHI should be a fave then they will make them a fave.

Horfin

[DukiesBaby]

As odd as it sounds, books are NOT in the business of gambling...they are in the business of making money. So I don't think they care that they think that SFG will win, they care what the public thinks. I think that if the betting becomes too heavy on one side, they either take it off the board or they adjust the line so they don't get burnt. In your example, if they adjust the line because they think SFG is going to win then they are gambling. I don't think what they think about who is going to win comes into the picture, what comes into the picture is what they think the public thinks. So if they think the public will think that SFG should be a fave then they will make SFG a fave, if they think the public thinks PHI should be a fave then they will make them a fave.

Horfin

Exactly but thats my point whats their deciding factor of what they think "the public thinks"
because books want 50-50 money or close to it, but for example, i remember a specific basketball game in the nba this year, Heat @ Spurs manu was out, and parker was listed as doubtful, heat just came off back to back losses to knicks and magic, and the magic ended the game on a 40-9 run with a major comeback win... next game at spurs everyone was talking about how the heat were gonna bounce back, and how the spurs were injured, before the line came out my buddy was discussing with me how he wanted to make a big play on the heat, i said they will be favored because most people expect a team like that too bounce back, and in a big game, plus spurs were vulnerable with injuries yet, next day line posted at around -2 spurs, he told me he was playing money line big, i tried to tell him that line isnt right, and that it begs for miami money, i know alot of people around here expected heat to bounce back, but if they (meaning the books) had decided the public thought miami, which it did, than why make spurs the favorite? that line got pounded and never changed... (but could be sharp money on spurs which kept line steady) but still sometimes i feel the books know things we dont know, and set lines according to those things, which kinda means they do gamble... another example of a weird line was game when celtics got destroyed by denver, no one in the public knew how bummed the celtics were after perkins got traded to OKC, i found out the celtics lost my cash that night because they were sad and their heads were not in the game, (which kinda pisses me off to an extent your professionals get over it... ) im just curious as to how the house makes those executive decisions on to what the public thinks... because sometimes you see lines in sports where u dont understand why its so low when they could get they same action with a better odds in house favor, yet every time i see a game like that with an "unusal spread" like i thought heat should be favored and they would come out to win, the spread turned out correct and the team that i suspected would be a shoe in got hammered... and i mean EVERY time i spot these lines, i have learned to bet my hunches on certain lines, its rare but i have hit quiet a few this year...



I dunno just curious what the man is always thinking, i feel like i am playing chess with him sometimes, and he comes up with magical moves...

[Horfin]

I am NO expert, but lemme give my humble opinion.

Exactly but thats my point whats their deciding factor of what they think "the public thinks"
because books want 50-50 money or close to it, but for example, i remember a specific basketball game in the nba this year, Heat @ Spurs manu was out, and parker was listed as doubtful, heat just came off back to back losses to knicks and magic, and the magic ended the game on a 40-9 run with a major comeback win... next game at spurs everyone was talking about how the heat were gonna bounce back, and how the spurs were injured, before the line came out my buddy was discussing with me how he wanted to make a big play on the heat, i said they will be favored because most people expect a team like that too bounce back, and in a big game, plus spurs were vulnerable with injuries yet, next day line posted at around -2 spurs, he told me he was playing money line big, i tried to tell him that line isnt right, and that it begs for miami money, i know alot of people around here expected heat to bounce back, but if they (meaning the books) had decided the public thought miami, which it did, than why make spurs the favorite?
***My guess is: 1) The set the line at Spurs at -2 because they knew it would get pounded by the public, that would offset the large money going on Spurs -2. So you 1000 $100 bets on Miami +2 and 10 $1000 bets on Spurs, line doesn't move, but it looks like 90% are on SA and 10% are on Miami

that line got pounded and never changed... (but could be sharp money on spurs which kept line steady)
** I agree

but still sometimes i feel the books know things we dont know, and set lines according to those things, which kinda means they do gamble)
**I agree they gamble, my statement was to make a point, I mean they can't and don't get it right every time, or else tehre would be no line movement.

... another example of a weird line was game when celtics got destroyed by denver, no one in the public knew how bummed the celtics were after perkins got traded to OKC, i found out the celtics lost my cash that night because they were sad and their heads were not in the game, (which kinda pisses me off to an extent your professionals get over it... ) im just curious as to how the house makes those executive decisions on to what the public thinks...
**This is media. If you searched long and hard I bet you would have found this out. But you still would not have put that much weight on that. Also they do this for a living, we don't (most of us), they know what effects what more than us.

because sometimes you see lines in sports where u dont understand why its so low when they could get they same action with a better odds in house favor, yet every time i see a game like that with an "unusal spread" like i thought heat should be favored and they would come out to win, the spread turned out correct and the team that i suspected would be a shoe in got hammered... and i mean EVERY time i spot these lines, i have learned to bet my hunches on certain lines, its rare but i have hit quiet a few this year...
**This is called finding value in a line. If you can find it you can make a load of money.
Why bet $10 on 10 games that you think might win, when you can bet $100 on 1 game that you "know" you have value in

I dunno just curious what the man is always thinking, i feel like i am playing chess with him sometimes, and he comes up with magical moves...
**you are playing chess. The fact that you know you are playing chess means you are further ahead than 90% of gamblers.

You are looking at NBA, you should find more value in NBA than in other areas.

Another thing. you get more value in Basketball and Baseball as opposed to Football (and a lesser extent NHL) in the NBA and MLB the turnaround can be as short as 7 hours (extra innings night game followed by a noon game) and 16 games each day there is no way the book can get it right. This is why you'll see more +180s win in MLB and NBA than you will see in NFL/NCAAFB. IN NFL/NCAAFB there are games separated by 7 days.

My thoughts and they are humblely given.

Horf!n

[Guest]

I'm playing systems on sum of the score, will it be over or under for the game given quote.. mostly play on over..